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Showing posts from June, 2019

Psephology series, part 5: How to avoid and stop gerrymandering

Yesterday, the United States Supreme Court voted 5-4 not to impose federal standards to stop redistricting of US congressional districts in such a way as to favour one party-otherwise known by the popular term gerrymandering: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/27/supreme-court-gerrymandering-dissent-elena-kagan This dereliction of duty has unsurprisingly attracted heavy criticism, especially Elena Kagan whose dissent received international attention. Gerrymandering, usually found in countries using first past the post for elections, is an affront to democracy around the world as it undermines free and fair elections and divides nations. The United Kingdom has a Boundary Commission, independent from Parliament, and Local Government Boundary Commissions, also independent from Parliament, which supposedly limits gerrymandering; the United States of America has neither at a federal level. However, at a local government level, it can unintentionally happen when ...

The importance of improving tree cover in Britain

It has been reported that Britain's tree cover is only 13%, compared to 35% across all Europe: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/19/planting-billions-trees-save-planet  Within Europe, only the Republic of Ireland and the Netherlands have proportionally lower forest cover than Britain. Good tree coverage is a necessity-it protects us not only from inclement weather but also from pollution and natural disasters. Planting a wide range of trees restores/improves biodiversity in an area, which is ultimately vital to our own wellbeing given the pollination that insects provide and the contribution to nutrition of the soil that the smallest creatures make. Absorption of carbon dioxide by trees not only helps us but also ensures stability of nutrition of crops by regulating ecological cycles.  They also produce oxygen, which is being crowded out by greenhouse gases; air pollution related deaths are not only due to absorption of harmful gases but also a decline in benef...

My analysis of by-elections from 20/6/19

Readers, the results of by-elections and deferred elections which took place on 20 June 2019 are as follows: (by-elections): Isle of Wight UA, Whippingham & Osborne: Conservative 318 (35.1%, +9.3%), Liberal Democrats 179 (19.8%, +14.5%), Independent (Paler) 167 (18.4%), Labour 141 (15.6%, +3.5%), Island Independent 60 (6.6%), UKIP 41 (4.5%). Conservative gain from Independent. Merton LBC, Cannon Hill: Liberal Democrats 1060 (35.0%, +25.5%), Labour 875 (28.9%, -14.9%), Conservative 867 (28.6%, -14.1%), Green 158 (5.2%), UKIP 68 (2.2%, -1.7%). Liberal Democrat gain from Labour. Neath Port Talbot UA, Pelenna: Independent (Hurley) 251 (47.8%), Plaid Cymru 120 (22.9%, -5.3%), Independent (Hughes) 105 (20.0%, -4.3%), Labour 43 (8.2%, -11.0%), Liberal Democrats 6 (1.1%). Independent gain from other Independent. Wandsworth LBC, Furzedown: Labour 1811 (49.0%, -15.5%), Liberal Democrats 887 (24.0%, +19.7%), Conservative 681 (18.4%, -2.8%), Green 318 (8.6%, -1.5%). (deferred e...

My analysis of British local by-elections from the first two weeks of June 2019 and other thoughts

Readers, the results of British local by-elections, mainly deferred elections, from the first two weeks of June 2019 were as follows: (6/6/19): Herefordshire UA, Ross North: Liberal Democrats 547 (75.1%, +28.0%), Conservative 136 (18.7%, -34.1%), Labour 45 (6.2%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. South Staffordshire DC, Wombourne South West: Conservative 342 (61.5%), Green 90 (16.2%), Liberal Democrats 79 (14.2%), Labour 45 (8.1%). Votes are based on averages between the two candidates for parties who fielded two candidates in this deferred election. (13/6/19): Broxtowe BC, Stapleford South East: Liberal Democrats 549 (46.7%, +21.6%), Conservative 380 (30.3%, -1.1%), Labour 322 (23.0%, -3.4%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative x2 (deferred election; candidate votes on average) North Devon DC, Chittlehampton: Conservative 323 (40.0%, +6.8%), Green 248 (30.7%, +20.0%), Liberal Democrats 221 (27.4%), Labour 16 (2.0%). Conservative gain from Independent ...

On the 2019 Irish local elections and European elections in Ireland

I apologise for the delay in this post given that the Irish local elections took place three weeks ago alongside the election of their MEPs, but Single Transferable Vote counts take a long time to conclude. Also, a recount in the South (Ireland) European Parliament constituency, eventually dropped by Sinn Fein, forced a delay in the declaration there, and the South constituency had 20 rounds of counting in total. The Irish Green Party made a European comeback, electing 2 MEPs, namely Ciaran Cuffe and Grace Sullivan; however in the Midlands-North West European constituency, the most socially conservative, Saoirse McHugh was eliminated on the 11th count, although Luke Flanagan won over some soft greens in Ireland due to his pro-legalisation of cannabis stance and being the most progressive Independent MEP in Ireland. Conversely, Sinn Fein experienced their worst ever election in modern Irish history, losing 2 MEPs; unsurprisingly it was the Midlands-North West constituenc...

Peterborough by-election 2019: Forbes sees off Farage-led fumble

I went off to Green Party conference in Scarborough the day the Peterborough by-election result was declared, which is why this post is later than usual; I usually post the very same day the by-election result is declared. The results of the Peterborough by-election were as follows: Paul Bristow, Conservative, 7,243 (21.3%, -25.5%) Lisa Forbes, Labour, 10,484 (30.9%, -17.2%) Stephen Goldspink, English Democrats, 153 (0.5%) Mike Greene, Brexit Party, 9,801 (28.9%) Alan "Howling Laud" Hope, OMRLP, 112 (0.3%) Pierre Kirk, UK EU Party, 25 (0.07%)   Andrew Moore, 101 (0.3%) Patrick O'Flynn, SDP, 135 (0.4%) Dick Rodgers, Common Good, 60 (0.2%) Tom Rogers, Christian Peoples Alliance, 162 (0.6%) Beki Sellick, Liberal Democrats, 4,159 (12.3%, +8.9%) Bobby Smith, 5 (0.01%) Peter Ward, Renew, 45 (0.1%) Joseph Wells, Green Party, 1,035 (3.1%, +1.3%) John Whitby, UKIP, 400 (1.2%) In any British by-election with universal suffrage, Labour's winning vo...

Danish general election of 2019: Denmark repudiates radicalised right

The Danish general election of 2019, which took place yesterday, marked a turn back towards the progressivism Scandinavian countries are famous for. The Danish People's Party, which in 2015 beat the traditional leader of the "blue" (economic right) bloc, Venstre, for second place, endured its worst election result since its inaugural election in 1998, which followed on from losing all but 1 MEP last month. It was nearly beaten into fourth place by the Danish Social Liberal Party, with whom it now has an equal number of seats to (16). Their losses are down not only due to Mette Frederiksen's shift away from open borders which was favoured by her predecessor as Social Democrat leader, Helle Thorning-Schmidt, which won over some more traditional voters whilst losing more socially liberal metropolitan voters, but also due to a splintering in their vote by two new and more extreme nationalist anti-immigration parties, the neoconservative New Right, which won 4 seats with...

Australian federal election of 2019: Morrison's surprise victory not actually a miracle

On 18 May, in the midst of European election fever, Australia held its 2019 federal election, felt to be a reasonably easy victory for Labor. In fact, this was far from the case: the Liberals, led by Scott Morrison after two leadership "spills" (i.e. challenges) in the space of just two years, in fact increased their majority to 3, despite ructions in the Liberals and a redistribution indirectly unfavourable to the Liberals (it changed the Liberal-held Dunkley division into a notional Labor seat, and created two new Labor divisions whilst abolishing only one). The state of Queensland, the most notoriously conservative Australian state, above all else helped Scott Morrison snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, despite a decrease in the 1st preference vote of 0.5%. Two Labor divisions, Herbert and Longman, were captured by the Liberal Nationals on swings of 8.4% and 4.1%, considerably above the average Labor-Liberal/National swing of 0.45% across Australia, although both we...

British local by-elections from the last two weeks of May 2019 and also other Belgian elections

Readers, only three local by-elections in Britain have occurred in the last two weeks, and they were easily overshadowed by the European elections. The results of these three local by-elections were as follows: (23/05/19) Neath Port Talbot UA, Resolven:  Independent (Lewis) 699 (59.7%), Labour 293 (25.0%, -16.3%), Plaid Cymru 121 (10.3%, -13.4%), Conservative 34 (2.9%), Liberal Democrats 23 (2.0%). Independent gain from Labour. [Previous Independent did not stand] Tendring DC, St Osyth (deferred election from 2 May): Independent (Talbot) 856, /Independent (White) 850 (58.3%), Conservative 437/430 (29.6%), Labour 177 (12.1%). Vote comparisons are not possible as this deferred election was for a new ward created in boundary changes.   (30/05/19) Gosport BC, Brockhurst: Liberal Democrats 488 (51.5%, +10.3%), Conservative 214 (22.6%, -12.2%), British Union & Sovereignty Party 165 (17.4%), Labour 80 (8.4%, -4.7%). All changes are since May 2018. Personality...