Alan's Green Thoughts

NB: Due to an earlier counting dispute in the Dublin European Parliament constituency in Ireland, and also Irish local elections, the Republic of Ireland's recent elections will be covered in a separate post. Italy: Strong Euroscepticism remains the order of the day in Italy, with the Democratic Party being the only pro-European party to elect MEPs in Italy. The former Lega Nord, now simply called Lega given the votes it won in the south of Italy in last year's Italian general election, surged to victory with 29 MEPs, whilst the Democratic Party lost 12 MEPs and nearly half its 2014 vote. The Five Star Movement is becoming less worthy of its name, and it finished third with 14 MEPs; this is the first election of any type in Italy where it lost seats instead of gaining them, partly because it is the leading party of government and no longer a new protest movement. Forza Italia continued to slide, being reduced to 7 MEPs, losing votes to both Lega and the more conservative Brot...

The European elections of 2019, all across the 27 member states of the European Union, experienced a Green Wave just like Britain did, due to the global impact of climate change protests, school strikes, and the speeches of 16 year old Swedish climate activist Greta Thunberg. But how far reaching was this Green Wave, and did the voters turn against the old blue and red blocs that are the European People's Party (EPP) and Socialists and Democrats (S&D)? Austria: Austria experienced surprisingly little change from 2014, although the FPO (Freedom Party of Austria) which had managed a good second place in 2017 instead finished a poor third with 17.2%, due to the recent collapse of the OVP (Austrian People's Party) led government following the Ibiza affair in February. However, the OVP still gained an extra two MEPs, whilst the opposition SPO (Socialist Party of Austria) actually saw a vote share decrease of 0.2%. Despite the recency of the scandal, dubbed "Ibizagate...

The European elections of 2019 were a sensation in Britain. It was the first time neither of the two largest parties of Labour and Conservative finished in the top two, with Labour finishing third and the Conservatives finishing fifth, worse even than the 2014 European elections. The Green Wave continued in Britain with 7 Green MEPs elected, the highest in British history. The Green Party won a seat in every region of England except the East Midlands and North East, and were only 25,000 votes short of winning a second seat in the South East. Six new Green MEPs joined Molly Scott-Cato last night, who were Scott Ainslie (London), Ellie Chowns (West Midlands), Gina Dowding (North West), Magid Magid (Yorkshire & the Humber), Alex Phillips (South East), and Catherine Rowett (East of England). Their strongest Green surge and best vote share was once again in South West England where they polled 18%; in local authorities they topped the poll in Brighton & Hove, Bristol and ...

You may have come across an article by Gina Miller about so called tactical voting in the 2019 European elections for Remain parties. However, in this European election, you should vote Green whichever region of Britain you live in and never vote "tactically" for a different party. Here is why: 1. The Green message is one Europe really needs. The declarations of climate emergencies by so many places around the world, as well as a clear need for a new political vision in a divided Europe, are already good reasons to vote Green, in addition to Green MEPs' strong and consistent record on upholding our civil rights in Europe. Green MEPs can also help reform EU policies that are detrimental to the environment, such as the Common Agricultural Policy. 2. Tactical voting does not apply to PR elections. The main point of proportional representation is that the proportion of votes won is important, not necessarily the order in which parties finish. Also, the regions used in E...

The South African general election of 2019 once again returned the African National Congress (ANC) to power with a single party majority. However, it was the first time in the history of modern South Africa that the ANC's vote share dropped below 60%; in fact as many as three opinion polls in the run-up to the election polled it below 50%. The ANC won 230 seats and 57.5%, which will give it a secure majority for now, but this along with a turnout of only 66%, is a sign that the ANC's hold on power will not last much longer and that poorer South Africans are increasingly frustrated with the endemic corruption and nepotism of the modern ANC, even though voting in South Africa is mainly on ethnic lines as opposed to economic and social lines. The replacement of Jacob Zuma as President of South Africa with Cyril Ramaphosa in 2018 did stem its loss of support to some extent, although controversies over President Ramaphosa's business interests have added further woes to the ANC...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections held on 9 May 2019 were as follows: East Lothian UA, Haddington & Lammersmuir (1st preference votes): Conservative 2212 (35.0%,+6.0%), SNP 1866 (29.5%, +3.5%), Labour 1359 (21.5%, -12.2%), Liberal Democrats 774 (12.2%, +5.0%), UKIP 108 (1.7%). Conservative hold at stage 4. [Greens did not stand] Havering LBC, Cranham: Upminster & Cranham Residents' Association 2421 (68.4%, +7.6%), Green 312 (8.8%, +1.6%), Conservative 257 (7.3%, -10.0%), Labour 219 (6.2%, -2.5%), UKIP 208 (5.9%, -0.2%), Liberal Democrats 120 (3.4%). Given the heavy Conservative losses last week, it seems surprising that the Conservatives held Haddington & Lammersmuir, although Ruth Davidson's popularity in Scotland is keeping the Conservatives afloat there and allowing unionist transfers to continue to flow to them. Brexit faultlines helped the SNP overtake Labour, with UKIP making no significant impact which is par for the course in Scotland....

In the context of British elections at all levels, the regional picture must be analysed properly in addition to the national picture. No more has this been truer than the 2019 British local elections. The national picture shows a net loss of 1,330 Conservative seats, a net loss of 84 Labour seats, a net increase of 705 Liberal Democrat seats, and a net increase of 194 Green seats on BBC figures. They were indeed the worst results for the Conservatives since 1995, and in some ways worse. However, unlike 1995, heavy Conservative losses were not nearly universal at all. And unlike in 1981 where the SDP-Liberal Alliance gains were relatively evenly distributed, there was a very uneven distribution of Liberal Democrat and Green gains across England. In the north of England (North East, North West, and Yorkshire & The Humber) and the Midlands (both East and West) the Conservatives suffered comparatively fewer losses although they did have fewer council seats to lose ...

Over in Northern Ireland, which had Brexit happened may have united with the Republic of Ireland, local elections elected a greater number of non-sectarian (Alliance, Green etc.) councillors than ever before. The Green Party wave was not nearly as strong in Northern Ireland as it was in England. This is not only due to the smaller size of Northern Ireland Green Party but also due to the Single Transferable Vote system making it necessary for them, and all other parties, to field fewer candidates than in a First Past the Post election. Nevertheless, the Green Party was able to win 4 seats in Belfast, retain their 3 in Ards and North Down, and win a seat in Lisburn & Castlereagh, giving them a total of 8, their highest total ever in Northern Ireland. It must nevertheless be remarked that all 8 NIGP councillors were elected in DEAs (District Electoral Areas) with unionist majorities. The Alliance Party made considerable breakthroughs, especially in unionist strongholds like County...

Without a doubt, the biggest sensation of the British local elections of 2019, where 248 councils including new councils created from mergers were up for election, was a new Green surge that resulted in net Green gains of 194 (notionally 188 accounting for the considerable number of councils experiencing boundary changes and the introduction of new councils), by far the highest in British history. I was a Green Party candidate myself at this election, in the affluent suburban ward of Hanford & Trentham in Stoke-on-Trent and the first ever Green Party candidate to stand there; however I was not among the Green candidates elected today. Green breakthroughs occurred all across England, from councils stretching from West Devon to Thanet to Eden. Green surges were even larger than first predicted in councils with significant Green groups; Mid Suffolk more than doubled its Green councillors to 12 and as many as 10 Green councillors were elected in Mendip. The biggest new break...