The Finnish Parliamentary election of 2019: Sipila spurned spectacularly
The Finnish Parliamentary election of 2019, which took place on Sunday 14th April, resulted in above all else a crushing defeat for the Centre Party of Juha Sipila, whose attempts at introducing universal basic income made no difference to the outcome.
The Centre Party slipped from first to fourth place, finishing with 31 seats and just 13.76% of the vote; Juha Sipila subsequently announced he would stand down as leader of the Centre Party in September 2019. Despite this loss of support they still finished first in the more rural districts of Finland where ironically they lost more voters, but at the same time they lost their only seat in Helsinki. A split in the Finns Party, which saw the formation of the Blue Reform Party after the election of Jussi Halla-aho, who has been convicted of inciting religious hatred against Muslims, as Finns Party leader, could have caused an early election, which was averted. However, the subsequent Oulu child sex exploitation scandal in 2019, Finland's own equivalent of the Rotherham scandal, caused support for the Finns Party to double in opinion polls leading up to the election, taking support mainly from the Centre Party and National Coalition Party (Finland's equivalent of the Conservatives).
In the end, however, it was the Social Democrats who topped the poll despite only polling 17.73%, the lowest ever pole position vote in a Finnish parliamentary election. 17.73% represents an increase of only 1.22% over their 2015 result, and it more importantly represents their second lowest vote share in Finnish history. The Green League and Left Alliance won over many younger voters of a similar leaning, so in the long term the Social Democrats are in decline like their counterparts in most of Europe. The Finns Party only gained one seat over their 2015 total; in fact in the aforementioned city of Oulu their vote share rose by only 4.2%, proving that the surge in support was just a temporary blip. In fact their support decreased by 0.22% although this can be attributed to the splinter group Blue Reform; Blue Reform polled 0.97% and failed to come close to winning any seats in the Eduskunta, despite having acquired 19 MPs mainly from the Finns Party during its short existence. Only in Savo-Karelia and Uusimaa did it achieve a remotely significant vote share. Jussi Halla-aho also holds more radical views than Timo Soini which has prevented the Finns Party winning more voters; this also means no other major party in Finland will work with the Finns Party, a cordon sanitaire similar to that around the Sweden Democrats in Sweden and around PVV in the Netherlands, to name a few examples.
The National Coalition Party had their own issues with a small splinter group, the Movement Now; despite having been in the governing coalition they still gained one seat, although in the capital, Helsinki, and Uusimaa, their support fell significantly. Movement Now failed to register as an official party in time for this election, but they nevertheless won one seat when its leader, Harry Harkimo, ran on an independent list in Uusimaa, the region surrounding Helsinki. The National Coalition Party won over lapsed Centre voters in rural areas to compensate for losses in Helsinki, Uusimaa, and Oulu in particular.
Although it can be argued that Pekka Haavisto lacks the charisma of former Green League leader Ville Ninisto, the Green League nevertheless won 5 extra seats, giving them 20, which is their best ever result in Finland. Furthermore, they made their mark by topping the poll in Helsinki with 23.5%, the first time the Green League has topped the poll in any Finnish electoral district. Unsurprisingly they made significant strides in neighbouring Uusimaa, although in rural districts they struggled to make progress. The socialist Left Alliance gained 4 seats, although they gained fewer new voters than the Green League did except in Varsinas-Suomi. The Swedish People's Party lost some support but maintained their seat total of 9, and managed to overtake the Centre Party to top the poll in Vaasa, which has the highest Swedish-speaking population in Finland; the Christian Democrats kept their seat total of 5 but given that they only increased their support in rural areas and lost some support in more urbanised districts in the south, demographic change is working against them in the long term.
None of the numerous other parties who contested this Finnish election polled even 1% apiece. The Pirate Party's vote share dropped by 0.2% to 0.6% and even in Helsinki it barely registered; its key platforms are being subsumed by other parties everywhere. The direct democratic and libertarian Independence Party, which only polled 0.5% in 2015, saw a near-total collapse in support to 0.1%, registering less than 100 votes in some districts. Independent candidates fared no better, with Markus Kuotesaho polling 4002 votes in Oulu being the only Independent to beat even minor parties in that region. Olavi Koskela, on the other hand, received the wooden spoon award in this Finnish election with a miserable 21 votes in Satakunta. Even the smallest parties did not poll as few votes as 21 in any district.
The impact of universal basic income trials in Finland, which became famous internationally, was a key reason for the Centre Party's leakage of votes in its rural strongholds. Although the universal basic income trials showed that participants were no more likely to find work, they became less stressed and therefore their socio-economic prospects will improve in the long-term. However, universal basic income is of limited use to many self-sufficient rural voters in Finland, who felt the Centre Party was neglecting their interests, compared to city dwellers to whom universal basic income is much more valuable.
It was a hotly contested election, and the turnout increase to 72.1%, as well as the fact not a single party managed to poll 20% of the votes cast, reflected this. The Centre Party may have decisively lost this election, but they are almost certain to return as a junior coalition partner given that a "left alliance" comprising the Social Democrats, Greens, and Left Alliance will not have nearly enough seats to govern. A coalition of the Social Democrats, National Coalition Party and Centre Party is the most likely outcome in terms of forming the next Finnish government.
The Centre Party slipped from first to fourth place, finishing with 31 seats and just 13.76% of the vote; Juha Sipila subsequently announced he would stand down as leader of the Centre Party in September 2019. Despite this loss of support they still finished first in the more rural districts of Finland where ironically they lost more voters, but at the same time they lost their only seat in Helsinki. A split in the Finns Party, which saw the formation of the Blue Reform Party after the election of Jussi Halla-aho, who has been convicted of inciting religious hatred against Muslims, as Finns Party leader, could have caused an early election, which was averted. However, the subsequent Oulu child sex exploitation scandal in 2019, Finland's own equivalent of the Rotherham scandal, caused support for the Finns Party to double in opinion polls leading up to the election, taking support mainly from the Centre Party and National Coalition Party (Finland's equivalent of the Conservatives).
In the end, however, it was the Social Democrats who topped the poll despite only polling 17.73%, the lowest ever pole position vote in a Finnish parliamentary election. 17.73% represents an increase of only 1.22% over their 2015 result, and it more importantly represents their second lowest vote share in Finnish history. The Green League and Left Alliance won over many younger voters of a similar leaning, so in the long term the Social Democrats are in decline like their counterparts in most of Europe. The Finns Party only gained one seat over their 2015 total; in fact in the aforementioned city of Oulu their vote share rose by only 4.2%, proving that the surge in support was just a temporary blip. In fact their support decreased by 0.22% although this can be attributed to the splinter group Blue Reform; Blue Reform polled 0.97% and failed to come close to winning any seats in the Eduskunta, despite having acquired 19 MPs mainly from the Finns Party during its short existence. Only in Savo-Karelia and Uusimaa did it achieve a remotely significant vote share. Jussi Halla-aho also holds more radical views than Timo Soini which has prevented the Finns Party winning more voters; this also means no other major party in Finland will work with the Finns Party, a cordon sanitaire similar to that around the Sweden Democrats in Sweden and around PVV in the Netherlands, to name a few examples.
The National Coalition Party had their own issues with a small splinter group, the Movement Now; despite having been in the governing coalition they still gained one seat, although in the capital, Helsinki, and Uusimaa, their support fell significantly. Movement Now failed to register as an official party in time for this election, but they nevertheless won one seat when its leader, Harry Harkimo, ran on an independent list in Uusimaa, the region surrounding Helsinki. The National Coalition Party won over lapsed Centre voters in rural areas to compensate for losses in Helsinki, Uusimaa, and Oulu in particular.
Although it can be argued that Pekka Haavisto lacks the charisma of former Green League leader Ville Ninisto, the Green League nevertheless won 5 extra seats, giving them 20, which is their best ever result in Finland. Furthermore, they made their mark by topping the poll in Helsinki with 23.5%, the first time the Green League has topped the poll in any Finnish electoral district. Unsurprisingly they made significant strides in neighbouring Uusimaa, although in rural districts they struggled to make progress. The socialist Left Alliance gained 4 seats, although they gained fewer new voters than the Green League did except in Varsinas-Suomi. The Swedish People's Party lost some support but maintained their seat total of 9, and managed to overtake the Centre Party to top the poll in Vaasa, which has the highest Swedish-speaking population in Finland; the Christian Democrats kept their seat total of 5 but given that they only increased their support in rural areas and lost some support in more urbanised districts in the south, demographic change is working against them in the long term.
None of the numerous other parties who contested this Finnish election polled even 1% apiece. The Pirate Party's vote share dropped by 0.2% to 0.6% and even in Helsinki it barely registered; its key platforms are being subsumed by other parties everywhere. The direct democratic and libertarian Independence Party, which only polled 0.5% in 2015, saw a near-total collapse in support to 0.1%, registering less than 100 votes in some districts. Independent candidates fared no better, with Markus Kuotesaho polling 4002 votes in Oulu being the only Independent to beat even minor parties in that region. Olavi Koskela, on the other hand, received the wooden spoon award in this Finnish election with a miserable 21 votes in Satakunta. Even the smallest parties did not poll as few votes as 21 in any district.
The impact of universal basic income trials in Finland, which became famous internationally, was a key reason for the Centre Party's leakage of votes in its rural strongholds. Although the universal basic income trials showed that participants were no more likely to find work, they became less stressed and therefore their socio-economic prospects will improve in the long-term. However, universal basic income is of limited use to many self-sufficient rural voters in Finland, who felt the Centre Party was neglecting their interests, compared to city dwellers to whom universal basic income is much more valuable.
It was a hotly contested election, and the turnout increase to 72.1%, as well as the fact not a single party managed to poll 20% of the votes cast, reflected this. The Centre Party may have decisively lost this election, but they are almost certain to return as a junior coalition partner given that a "left alliance" comprising the Social Democrats, Greens, and Left Alliance will not have nearly enough seats to govern. A coalition of the Social Democrats, National Coalition Party and Centre Party is the most likely outcome in terms of forming the next Finnish government.
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