Green shoots flourish in Prince Edward Island election and referendum of 2019
The Green Party of Canada were widely expected to top the poll in Prince Edward Island, which is also due to a dissatisfaction with the Conservative-Liberal merry go round as much as rising awareness of environmental issues.
Although the Greens did not top the poll in Prince Edward Island after all, they did increase their vote share from 10.81% to 30.62%, the best ever performance by the Green Party in Canada. This gave them 8 seats out of 27 in Prince Edward Island, and more importantly the balance of power in Prince Edward Island's legislature. It is also the first time the Canadian Greens have reached official opposition status in any provincial legislature, and it will serve them well in the Canadian federal election in October. The Liberals were hit hardest by said Green surge; they dropped to 6 seats and their leader Wade MacLauchlan lost his own riding of Stanhope-Marshfield. Highlighting once again how unfair first past the post is, the Liberals suffered these losses despite still polling 29.52% of the vote, only 1.1% behind the Greens.
Meanwhile, the Progressive Conservatives gained 4 seats despite their vote share decreasing by 0.88%, although with 12 seats they only have minority status in Prince Edward Island. Normally in elections using first past the post, a relatively even vote distribution is a disadvantage in terms of winning seats, but the Greens polled well enough to negate it and win seats even though their leader, Peter Bevan-Baker, was the only Green candidate to poll more than 50% of the vote in that election. However, six of their eight seats are either in Charlottetown or Egmont, with only one apiece in the Progressive Conservative stronghold of Cardigan and the almost as Conservative Malpeque (where there is one Liberal stronghold in terms of provincial ridings, Cornwall-Meadowbank).
The New Democratic Party (NDP) had their worst night in Canadian provincial history, polling a derisory 3% of the vote across Prince Edward Island, and their leader Joe Byrne was the only NDP candidate to poll more than 10%; he still finished fourth in the riding of Charlottetown-Victoria Park. The progressive vote has clearly shifted over to the Greens and in any case the NDP have won no seats in Prince Edward Island since 2000. Three ridings (Belfast-Murray River, Souris-Elmira, and New Haven-Rocky Point) did not have any NDP candidates and many polled less than 100 votes. Of the three Independent candidates who ran (with Andy Cleary withdrawing from Belfast-Murray River before polling day), only former Liberal MLA Bush Durnville, whose riding was heavily redrawn in Prince Edward Island's redistribution, achieved a noteworthy vote.
Even at provincial level, Canada is not used to coalition governments especially given how strong the swings are when an incumbent governing party loses an election. However, with the simultaneous referendum on proportional representation narrowly defeated by a margin of 51.17% to 48.83% despite 15 ridings out of 27 voting Yes to PR, a Green-led coalition government in Prince Edward Island will be necessary for stable governance irrespective of the result of the Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park by-election (which will take place later this year due to the death of Green candidate Joshua Underhay in a car accident), since neither the Greens nor the Liberals will give confidence and supply to the Progressive Conservatives in Prince Edward Island.
Although the Greens did not top the poll in Prince Edward Island after all, they did increase their vote share from 10.81% to 30.62%, the best ever performance by the Green Party in Canada. This gave them 8 seats out of 27 in Prince Edward Island, and more importantly the balance of power in Prince Edward Island's legislature. It is also the first time the Canadian Greens have reached official opposition status in any provincial legislature, and it will serve them well in the Canadian federal election in October. The Liberals were hit hardest by said Green surge; they dropped to 6 seats and their leader Wade MacLauchlan lost his own riding of Stanhope-Marshfield. Highlighting once again how unfair first past the post is, the Liberals suffered these losses despite still polling 29.52% of the vote, only 1.1% behind the Greens.
Meanwhile, the Progressive Conservatives gained 4 seats despite their vote share decreasing by 0.88%, although with 12 seats they only have minority status in Prince Edward Island. Normally in elections using first past the post, a relatively even vote distribution is a disadvantage in terms of winning seats, but the Greens polled well enough to negate it and win seats even though their leader, Peter Bevan-Baker, was the only Green candidate to poll more than 50% of the vote in that election. However, six of their eight seats are either in Charlottetown or Egmont, with only one apiece in the Progressive Conservative stronghold of Cardigan and the almost as Conservative Malpeque (where there is one Liberal stronghold in terms of provincial ridings, Cornwall-Meadowbank).
The New Democratic Party (NDP) had their worst night in Canadian provincial history, polling a derisory 3% of the vote across Prince Edward Island, and their leader Joe Byrne was the only NDP candidate to poll more than 10%; he still finished fourth in the riding of Charlottetown-Victoria Park. The progressive vote has clearly shifted over to the Greens and in any case the NDP have won no seats in Prince Edward Island since 2000. Three ridings (Belfast-Murray River, Souris-Elmira, and New Haven-Rocky Point) did not have any NDP candidates and many polled less than 100 votes. Of the three Independent candidates who ran (with Andy Cleary withdrawing from Belfast-Murray River before polling day), only former Liberal MLA Bush Durnville, whose riding was heavily redrawn in Prince Edward Island's redistribution, achieved a noteworthy vote.
Even at provincial level, Canada is not used to coalition governments especially given how strong the swings are when an incumbent governing party loses an election. However, with the simultaneous referendum on proportional representation narrowly defeated by a margin of 51.17% to 48.83% despite 15 ridings out of 27 voting Yes to PR, a Green-led coalition government in Prince Edward Island will be necessary for stable governance irrespective of the result of the Charlottetown-Hillsborough Park by-election (which will take place later this year due to the death of Green candidate Joshua Underhay in a car accident), since neither the Greens nor the Liberals will give confidence and supply to the Progressive Conservatives in Prince Edward Island.
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