Predictions for the European elections of 2019 in the UK with a side note in Salop
Readers, one local by-election did happen yesterday, even though election day for the 2019 local elections is next week, and the results of it were as follows:
Shropshire UA, Belle Vue: Labour 603 (47.1%, +4.1%), Liberal Democrats 408 (31.5%, +3.2%), Conservative 152 (11.9%,-12.3%), Green 65 (5.1%, +0.6%), UKIP 58 (4.5%).
Shropshire, with the exception of the unitary authority of Telford & The Wrekin, will not hold its next set of elections until 2021 and also this being a solitary by-election in one of Shropshire's safest Labour divisions, little of significance can be concluded from this sole by-election apart from a substantial Conservative collapse nationwide.
On a more important note, European elections will likely be held in the UK on 23 May, since it is unlikely the Conservatives will be able to pass through an acceptable deal that would cancel said elections before 22 May. With the vote more fragmented than ever before, how will they turn out?
East Midlands: This region had the highest Leave vote in the 2016 EU referendum, it has only five seats to go around, and low potential for the Greens and Liberal Democrats for the most part. Kat Boettge's regional profile will provide a boost to the Green Party in this region but even with the Brexit vote splintering in different directions, the Green vote will need to at least double compared to 2014 for a Green MEP to be elected. Prediction: Brexit Party 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1.
East of England: One of the best chances for the Green Party to gain an MEP for the first time in said region, although the Liberal Democrats have experienced revivals in the more middle class parts of Hertfordshire and in the villages surrounding the city of Cambridge. In terms of the progressive vote the Greens have the upper hand, especially in Suffolk. The Conservative support will hold up better than in most regions especially in Essex. Labour's poor organisation in non-urban areas of the East of England will likely result in a below average increase at most. The Brexit Party will poll less well than in the East Midlands. Prediction: Brexit 2, Conservative 2, Labour 1, UKIP 1, Green 1.
London: The most competitive European election contest in the UK once again, although the various Independent candidates will have little impact. It is also where the Conservatives will be hit hardest; they could lose as much as half of their 2014 vote share here. Change UK will likely not be able to win any European seats outside London and even then it is probable they will not win one of the eight seats in London. The Liberal Democrats will experience their strongest revival here as they did in 2017, assuring them of regaining a seat. Labour's unclear stance on Brexit could cost them dearly here despite so many Labour activists being based in London. Meanwhile, London-based polls have shown the Greens as high as 16%, potentially enough for two Green MEPs. although this will require the Greens to finish second in this region in practice given that the order in which parties finish will be more important than ever. It appears more likely than not at present, and the Animal Welfare Party (which could win over a few Green voters) has little support even in London. Prediction: Labour 3, Green 2, Conservative 1, Liberal Democrats 1, Brexit 1.
Northern Ireland: The only part of the UK whose European elections are by Single Transferable Vote instead of d'Hondt PR, transfers based on the unionist/nationalist divide will still prevail far more than the Remain/Leave divide, so the result will likely be the same as 2014. Prediction: DUP 1, Sinn Fein 1, UUP 1.
North East England: Unfortunately this is the least competitive European Parliament constituency in Britain due to the simple fact of it having only 3 seats. The only thing of interest would be UKIP's seat going to the Brexit Party instead. Prediction: Labour 2, Brexit 1.
North West England: Like the East of England, the Green Party have come close to winning a European seat in this region in the past and this year will be their best chance to gain one. This is also however the region where Labour's support will rise most meaning that there is an outside chance they could still miss out; the Liberal Democrats' recovery will be too limited. Prediction: Labour 4, Conservative 1, Brexit 1, Green 1, UKIP 1.
Scotland: Scotland had the highest Remain vote in the 2016 EU referendum and this means that neither the Brexit Party nor UKIP will win a European seat in Scotland. The Scottish Greens look set to gain a European seat as well. Prediction: SNP 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1, Green 1.
South East England: The largest region with 10 MEPs and like London this will experience a significant Brexit backlash effect. This will not only boost the Greens and Liberal Democrats but also prove a hindrance to Labour somewhat. Due to the number of wealthy and usually older homeowners in this region the Conservatives will still poll best in this region above all others but nevertheless they will undoubtedly lose enough support to lose an MEP here. This is also the only region other than London where the Greens could potentially win a second MEP. Prediction: Brexit 2, Conservative 2, Labour 2, Green 2, Liberal Democrats 1, UKIP 1.
South West England: Molly Scott-Cato, the only Green MEP standing for re-election this year, is almost certain to keep her seat, although the Liberal Democrats are also likely to win an MEP there given that the gap between each of the major parties will narrow, which has significant effects under the d'Hondt system the UK uses for European elections. UKIP will be the biggest losers in this region and are likely to lose both their European seats in the South West. Prediction: Brexit 2, Conservative 1, Labour 1, Green 1, Liberal Democrats 1.
Wales: Labour could do well enough to win a second European seat in Wales, which puts both Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives in danger of losing their only seat. Plaid Cymru is however experiencing better support under Adam Price than under Leanne Wood. As with elsewhere in the UK, the Brexit Party is set to displace UKIP. Prediction: Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Brexit 1.
West Midlands: No party is likely to win more than 30% of the vote in this region, and with 7 seats available competition will be tight. However, this is the second weakest region for the Green Party in England despite their rapid growth in councillor numbers in the West Midlands during the last five years; like in the East Midlands the Greens will need to at least double their 2014 vote share to win a European seat in this region. The Liberal Democrats are likewise weak in the West Midlands, meaning parties supportive of Brexit or ambivalent towards Brexit will probably win all the West Midlands European seats. Prediction: Brexit 2, Labour 2, Conservative 2, UKIP 1.
Yorkshire & The Humber: The outgoing Lord Mayor of Sheffield, Magid Magid, is leading the Green list in this region and his profile will be a key determinant in whether the Greens win a European seat. As with most of England north of the Wash the Greens will likely finish ahead of the Liberal Democrats once again, although in practice it will be difficult for the Greens to win one of the six seats simply due to d'Hondt system favouring larger parties; Labour could win half the seats in this region on less than 1/3 of the vote. The results in West and South Yorkshire will prove decisive, as metropolitan areas will show the strongest rise for Labour. Prediction: Labour 3,, Brexit 2, Conservative 1.
Sum of predictions for the 2019 European Parliament elections in the UK: Labour 24 (+4), Brexit 16 (+16), Conservative 12 (-7), Green 8 (+5), UKIP 4 (-20), Liberal Democrats 3 (+2), SNP 2, Plaid Cymru 1, DUP 1, SF 1, UUP 1 (unchanged in all the latter cases).
Shropshire UA, Belle Vue: Labour 603 (47.1%, +4.1%), Liberal Democrats 408 (31.5%, +3.2%), Conservative 152 (11.9%,-12.3%), Green 65 (5.1%, +0.6%), UKIP 58 (4.5%).
Shropshire, with the exception of the unitary authority of Telford & The Wrekin, will not hold its next set of elections until 2021 and also this being a solitary by-election in one of Shropshire's safest Labour divisions, little of significance can be concluded from this sole by-election apart from a substantial Conservative collapse nationwide.
On a more important note, European elections will likely be held in the UK on 23 May, since it is unlikely the Conservatives will be able to pass through an acceptable deal that would cancel said elections before 22 May. With the vote more fragmented than ever before, how will they turn out?
East Midlands: This region had the highest Leave vote in the 2016 EU referendum, it has only five seats to go around, and low potential for the Greens and Liberal Democrats for the most part. Kat Boettge's regional profile will provide a boost to the Green Party in this region but even with the Brexit vote splintering in different directions, the Green vote will need to at least double compared to 2014 for a Green MEP to be elected. Prediction: Brexit Party 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1.
East of England: One of the best chances for the Green Party to gain an MEP for the first time in said region, although the Liberal Democrats have experienced revivals in the more middle class parts of Hertfordshire and in the villages surrounding the city of Cambridge. In terms of the progressive vote the Greens have the upper hand, especially in Suffolk. The Conservative support will hold up better than in most regions especially in Essex. Labour's poor organisation in non-urban areas of the East of England will likely result in a below average increase at most. The Brexit Party will poll less well than in the East Midlands. Prediction: Brexit 2, Conservative 2, Labour 1, UKIP 1, Green 1.
London: The most competitive European election contest in the UK once again, although the various Independent candidates will have little impact. It is also where the Conservatives will be hit hardest; they could lose as much as half of their 2014 vote share here. Change UK will likely not be able to win any European seats outside London and even then it is probable they will not win one of the eight seats in London. The Liberal Democrats will experience their strongest revival here as they did in 2017, assuring them of regaining a seat. Labour's unclear stance on Brexit could cost them dearly here despite so many Labour activists being based in London. Meanwhile, London-based polls have shown the Greens as high as 16%, potentially enough for two Green MEPs. although this will require the Greens to finish second in this region in practice given that the order in which parties finish will be more important than ever. It appears more likely than not at present, and the Animal Welfare Party (which could win over a few Green voters) has little support even in London. Prediction: Labour 3, Green 2, Conservative 1, Liberal Democrats 1, Brexit 1.
Northern Ireland: The only part of the UK whose European elections are by Single Transferable Vote instead of d'Hondt PR, transfers based on the unionist/nationalist divide will still prevail far more than the Remain/Leave divide, so the result will likely be the same as 2014. Prediction: DUP 1, Sinn Fein 1, UUP 1.
North East England: Unfortunately this is the least competitive European Parliament constituency in Britain due to the simple fact of it having only 3 seats. The only thing of interest would be UKIP's seat going to the Brexit Party instead. Prediction: Labour 2, Brexit 1.
North West England: Like the East of England, the Green Party have come close to winning a European seat in this region in the past and this year will be their best chance to gain one. This is also however the region where Labour's support will rise most meaning that there is an outside chance they could still miss out; the Liberal Democrats' recovery will be too limited. Prediction: Labour 4, Conservative 1, Brexit 1, Green 1, UKIP 1.
Scotland: Scotland had the highest Remain vote in the 2016 EU referendum and this means that neither the Brexit Party nor UKIP will win a European seat in Scotland. The Scottish Greens look set to gain a European seat as well. Prediction: SNP 2, Labour 2, Conservative 1, Green 1.
South East England: The largest region with 10 MEPs and like London this will experience a significant Brexit backlash effect. This will not only boost the Greens and Liberal Democrats but also prove a hindrance to Labour somewhat. Due to the number of wealthy and usually older homeowners in this region the Conservatives will still poll best in this region above all others but nevertheless they will undoubtedly lose enough support to lose an MEP here. This is also the only region other than London where the Greens could potentially win a second MEP. Prediction: Brexit 2, Conservative 2, Labour 2, Green 2, Liberal Democrats 1, UKIP 1.
South West England: Molly Scott-Cato, the only Green MEP standing for re-election this year, is almost certain to keep her seat, although the Liberal Democrats are also likely to win an MEP there given that the gap between each of the major parties will narrow, which has significant effects under the d'Hondt system the UK uses for European elections. UKIP will be the biggest losers in this region and are likely to lose both their European seats in the South West. Prediction: Brexit 2, Conservative 1, Labour 1, Green 1, Liberal Democrats 1.
Wales: Labour could do well enough to win a second European seat in Wales, which puts both Plaid Cymru and the Conservatives in danger of losing their only seat. Plaid Cymru is however experiencing better support under Adam Price than under Leanne Wood. As with elsewhere in the UK, the Brexit Party is set to displace UKIP. Prediction: Labour 2, Plaid Cymru 1, Brexit 1.
West Midlands: No party is likely to win more than 30% of the vote in this region, and with 7 seats available competition will be tight. However, this is the second weakest region for the Green Party in England despite their rapid growth in councillor numbers in the West Midlands during the last five years; like in the East Midlands the Greens will need to at least double their 2014 vote share to win a European seat in this region. The Liberal Democrats are likewise weak in the West Midlands, meaning parties supportive of Brexit or ambivalent towards Brexit will probably win all the West Midlands European seats. Prediction: Brexit 2, Labour 2, Conservative 2, UKIP 1.
Yorkshire & The Humber: The outgoing Lord Mayor of Sheffield, Magid Magid, is leading the Green list in this region and his profile will be a key determinant in whether the Greens win a European seat. As with most of England north of the Wash the Greens will likely finish ahead of the Liberal Democrats once again, although in practice it will be difficult for the Greens to win one of the six seats simply due to d'Hondt system favouring larger parties; Labour could win half the seats in this region on less than 1/3 of the vote. The results in West and South Yorkshire will prove decisive, as metropolitan areas will show the strongest rise for Labour. Prediction: Labour 3,, Brexit 2, Conservative 1.
Sum of predictions for the 2019 European Parliament elections in the UK: Labour 24 (+4), Brexit 16 (+16), Conservative 12 (-7), Green 8 (+5), UKIP 4 (-20), Liberal Democrats 3 (+2), SNP 2, Plaid Cymru 1, DUP 1, SF 1, UUP 1 (unchanged in all the latter cases).
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