My analysis of British local by-elections from 4/4/19 and 11/4/19

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 11th April 2019, and one from 4th April 2019:

(4/4/19)

Norfolk CC, Wroxham: Conservative 922 (55.7%, -3.2%), Liberal Democrats 395 (23.9%,+4.0%), Green 174 (10.5%, +5.0%), Labour 163 (9.9%, -0.8%). [UKIP did not stand]

(11/4/19):

Burnley BC, Rosehill with Burnley Wood: Liberal Democrats 341 (37.5%, -11.0%), Labour 249 (27.4%, -6.8%), Burnley & Padiham Independent 154 (16.9%), Conservative 115 (12.6%,-0.4%), Green 51 (5.6%, +1.3%). All changes are since May 2018.

Edinburgh UA, Leith Walk (1st preference votes): SNP 2596 (35.7%, +1.3%), Green 1855 (25.5%, +5.8%), Labour 1123 (15.5%, -7.0%), Conservative 777 (10.7%, -3.7%), Liberal Democrats 623 (8.6%, +4.8%), Independent (Illingworth) 110 (1.5%), UKIP 85 (1.2%), Socialist Labour 56 (0.8%, -0.2%), Independent (Scott) 16 (0.2%), For Britain 14 (0.2%), Libertarian 12 (0.2%).SNP gain from Labour at stage 10.

Lambeth LBC, Thornton: Labour 998 (41.5%, -22.3%), Liberal Democrats 979 (40.7%, +31.4%), Green 171 (7.1%, -3.8%), Conservative 166 (6.9%, -9.2%), Women's Equality 53 (2.2%), UKIP 39 (1.6%).

Merthyr Tydfil UA, Cyfarthfa: Independent (Jones) 861 (60.7%), Labour 330 (23.3%, -4.5%), Independent (Griffiths) 180 (12.7%), Conservative 48 (3.4%). Independent gain from another Independent.

In Wroxham, the Green Party recovered a considerable number of votes it had lost Norfolk-wide in the 2017 county council election, enabling the Greens to push Labour into fourth place. Being a rural and safely Conservative division, the swings were small and relatively insignificant.

Even though the Burnley & Padiham Independents split off from the Liberal Democrats, this did not prevent the Liberal Democrats holding the seat of Rosehill with Burnley Wood, especially since they won over many local Labour voters as well. Meanwhile, the election of Andy Fewings to Burnley Council last year helped increase the Green vote, even though the Green Party were not in a position to win that by-election.

The Greens did come close to winning Leith Walk in Edinburgh, though, with former parliamentary candidate Lorna Slater being beaten by the SNP only in the final stage and overtaking Labour for second place. It appears the SNP have been boosted on Remain/Leave fault lines, which is why the Conservatives lost some votes to the Liberal Democrats in one of the most marginal wards in Scotland.

The same fault lines almost led to a Liberal Democrat gain of Thornton from Labour, going through its second by-election in five months, and a consequent squeeze of the Green vote; nevertheless the Greens jumped from fourth to third place. The results were relatively similar to those of the Thornton by-election of November 2018, albeit with the Liberal Democrats coming within just 19 votes of winning the seat.

Finally in Merthyr Tydfil, localism proved to be the name of the game as it often is in local by-elections in Mid Glamorgan. Although the Labour candidate, Mark Prewett, was well-known in the Cyfarthfa ward from his work as a parish vicar, he failed to achieve even half the number of votes the successful independent candidate, Michelle Jones, polled.

There will be no local by-elections next week since next Thursday is Maundy Thursday. 

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