Newport West by-election bypassed by coverage of boisterous Brexit balderdash
Readers, in case you did not tune in to the live coverage of the Newport West by-election declaration, the votes cast were as follows:
Jonathan Clark, Plaid Cymru, 1,185 (5.0%, +2.5%)
June Davies, Renew, 879 (3.7%)
Matthew Evans, Conservative, 7,357 (31.3%, -8.0%)
Neil Hamilton, UKIP, 2023 (8.6%,+6.1%)
Ruth Jones, Labour, 9,308 (39.6%, -12.7%)
Ryan Jones, Liberal Democrats, 1,088 (4.6%, +2.4%)
Ian McLean, SDP, 202 (0.9%)
Hugh Nicklin, For Britain, 159 (0.7%)
Richard Suchorzewski, Abolish the Welsh Assembly, 205 (0.9%)
Philip Taylor, Democrats & Veterans, 185 (0.8%)
Amelia Womack, Green Party, 924 (3.9%, +2.8%)
Given the current climate of Brexit chaos, the 2.2% swing from Labour to Conservative is rather surprising since the Conservatives have been responsible for most Brexit-related problems. However, Labour is still in power in the Welsh Assembly and their support of the controversial M4 relief road did not go down well with residents of Newport West; however, Plaid Cymru and the Greens, who opposed the relief road, benefitted from opposition to it.
The substantial drop in the vote shares of both Labour and Conservative, a total of 20.7%, combined with a total increase of 11.4% for the four pro-Remain parties, giving a combined total of 17.2% standing in this election, represents a clear backlash against Brexit and the consequences thereof. Newport West voted Leave by a margin of 54% to 46%, slightly higher than the Welsh average, in the 2016 EU referendum and supporters of EU membership clearly made their voices heard. However, the Brexit issue could not spark a good turnout any more than the M4 relief road issue, and turnout plummeted to 37.1%, despite the presence of 11 different parties on the ballot. Wet weather and a belief from the very start that Labour would win have been blamed, although the lack of proper coverage of this by-election outside that of the South Wales Argus was a more significant factor in the poor turnout.
Neil Hamilton, who was the UKIP candidate, is most notorious for his role in the Cash for Questions scandal when he was Conservative MP for Tatton; as a result, he was roundly defeated by BBC correspondent Martin Bell in 1997. Furthermore, Neil Hamilton has never lived in Newport-he was raised in Caerfyrddin (Carmarthenshire) and gave an address in North Wiltshire on the Statement of Persons Nominated. Also, UKIP has largely collapsed as a political force and rarely fields candidates in local by-elections anymore; many Independent groups and splinter parties have formed out of this collapse. It is therefore surprising that UKIP finished third in this by-election, and not the Green Party, although delays to Brexit have turned many Conservatives voters back to UKIP. With Newport's low number of Welsh speakers, Plaid Cymru surprisingly saved their deposit for only the second time in the history of the Newport West constituency. The other three pro-Remain parties did not manage to save their deposit, but Renew exceeded expectations of it considerably with its vote share of 3.7%, notable in a constituency which clearly voted Leave and where only Labour and the Conservatives saved their deposits in 2017.
Despite a crowded field, a clear Remain/Leave divide showed in the votes cast. The bottom four places were taken by the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party the SDP, the Democrats & Veterans Party and the For Britain Party. None were expected to perform well, so it is surprising that all of them achieved more than 100 votes apiece, with the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party having lost any momentum from 2016 where it achieved 4% of the vote across Wales. The wooden spoon award of this by-election goes to the For Britain party, which polled only 159 votes. Most wooden spoon award winners in parliamentary by-elections fail to poll even 100 votes.
Jonathan Clark, Plaid Cymru, 1,185 (5.0%, +2.5%)
June Davies, Renew, 879 (3.7%)
Matthew Evans, Conservative, 7,357 (31.3%, -8.0%)
Neil Hamilton, UKIP, 2023 (8.6%,+6.1%)
Ruth Jones, Labour, 9,308 (39.6%, -12.7%)
Ryan Jones, Liberal Democrats, 1,088 (4.6%, +2.4%)
Ian McLean, SDP, 202 (0.9%)
Hugh Nicklin, For Britain, 159 (0.7%)
Richard Suchorzewski, Abolish the Welsh Assembly, 205 (0.9%)
Philip Taylor, Democrats & Veterans, 185 (0.8%)
Amelia Womack, Green Party, 924 (3.9%, +2.8%)
Given the current climate of Brexit chaos, the 2.2% swing from Labour to Conservative is rather surprising since the Conservatives have been responsible for most Brexit-related problems. However, Labour is still in power in the Welsh Assembly and their support of the controversial M4 relief road did not go down well with residents of Newport West; however, Plaid Cymru and the Greens, who opposed the relief road, benefitted from opposition to it.
The substantial drop in the vote shares of both Labour and Conservative, a total of 20.7%, combined with a total increase of 11.4% for the four pro-Remain parties, giving a combined total of 17.2% standing in this election, represents a clear backlash against Brexit and the consequences thereof. Newport West voted Leave by a margin of 54% to 46%, slightly higher than the Welsh average, in the 2016 EU referendum and supporters of EU membership clearly made their voices heard. However, the Brexit issue could not spark a good turnout any more than the M4 relief road issue, and turnout plummeted to 37.1%, despite the presence of 11 different parties on the ballot. Wet weather and a belief from the very start that Labour would win have been blamed, although the lack of proper coverage of this by-election outside that of the South Wales Argus was a more significant factor in the poor turnout.
Neil Hamilton, who was the UKIP candidate, is most notorious for his role in the Cash for Questions scandal when he was Conservative MP for Tatton; as a result, he was roundly defeated by BBC correspondent Martin Bell in 1997. Furthermore, Neil Hamilton has never lived in Newport-he was raised in Caerfyrddin (Carmarthenshire) and gave an address in North Wiltshire on the Statement of Persons Nominated. Also, UKIP has largely collapsed as a political force and rarely fields candidates in local by-elections anymore; many Independent groups and splinter parties have formed out of this collapse. It is therefore surprising that UKIP finished third in this by-election, and not the Green Party, although delays to Brexit have turned many Conservatives voters back to UKIP. With Newport's low number of Welsh speakers, Plaid Cymru surprisingly saved their deposit for only the second time in the history of the Newport West constituency. The other three pro-Remain parties did not manage to save their deposit, but Renew exceeded expectations of it considerably with its vote share of 3.7%, notable in a constituency which clearly voted Leave and where only Labour and the Conservatives saved their deposits in 2017.
Despite a crowded field, a clear Remain/Leave divide showed in the votes cast. The bottom four places were taken by the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party the SDP, the Democrats & Veterans Party and the For Britain Party. None were expected to perform well, so it is surprising that all of them achieved more than 100 votes apiece, with the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party having lost any momentum from 2016 where it achieved 4% of the vote across Wales. The wooden spoon award of this by-election goes to the For Britain party, which polled only 159 votes. Most wooden spoon award winners in parliamentary by-elections fail to poll even 100 votes.
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