The 2019 Estonian election: Keep calm and carry on Reform-ing
Yesterday, Estonia held its 2019 parliamentary election, notable for a shift towards progressivism and liberalism.
The Reform Party maintained its pole position, aided by e-democracy and excellent support in the cities. In fact, it managed to increase its seat total by 4 with 28.9%, critical for ensuring they will be the leading partners in any coalition. It also means Kaja Kallas, daughter of former Estonian Prime Minister Siim Kallas, will become Estonia's first ever female Prime Minister.
The current Estonian PM by comparison, Juri Ratas, has proven rather staid and uninspired, which is why the Centre Party lost ground after he succeeded Taavi Roivas in 2016, although it was neck and neck with Reform in opinion polls leading up to this election. To their credit the Centre Party only lost 1 seat and remained in second place. Juri's coalition partners, Pro Patria, and the Social Democrats, lost 2 and 5 seats respectively although social democracy as a political force is in long term decline everywhere, even with occasional "bounces". It can be argued that opinion polls have underestimated the impact of online voting in Estonia, one of the most technologically advanced countries in Europe, which resulted in an overestimation of support for the Social Democrats.
The Conservative People's Party of Estonia, very similar to the Swiss People's Party especially due to high levels of rural support, won an extra 12 seats placing them as the third largest party in the Rikikogu, although their hard nationalist stance and lack of urbane appeal means they will not be invited to take part in the next governing coalition, which can realistically only be led by Reform or Centre. Estonia, despite its high levels of technological sophistication, is not immune to the widening gap between rural and urban voters and rural voters' disenchantment with the current state of politics.
Despite this, the "post-ideological" Estonia 200 party narrowly failed to win seats in the Rikikogu, polling only 4.5%, although this was 2 1/2 times as many votes of the Estonian Greens who only found significant support in Tallinn, the Estonian capital, and surprisingly polled relatively poorly in Tartu. Their vote was split by the new Richness of Life Party, who also cut into the Estonian Free Party's vote; their leader, Artur Talvik, was once the leader of the Estonian Free Party. That party lost all 8 of its seats and polled 1.2%, a miserable ninth place nationally. As for the Estonian United Left Party, it failed to even achieve as many votes as it had members, and finished bottom of the poll in half of the electoral districts, with a truly unlucky vote total of 13 in two. Of the Independent candidates, only Harry Raudvere in the sparsely populated and coastal Hiiu-Laaane district polled a remotely respectable vote with 406.
It is perhaps surprising that turnout only reached 63.7%, although election turnout has never been particularly high in the Baltic states. However, this is the second best turnout in modern Estonian history, showing that e-voting can bring out more voters. Britain should adopt it to bring turnout back up to respectable levels, especially amongst young people.
The Reform Party maintained its pole position, aided by e-democracy and excellent support in the cities. In fact, it managed to increase its seat total by 4 with 28.9%, critical for ensuring they will be the leading partners in any coalition. It also means Kaja Kallas, daughter of former Estonian Prime Minister Siim Kallas, will become Estonia's first ever female Prime Minister.
The current Estonian PM by comparison, Juri Ratas, has proven rather staid and uninspired, which is why the Centre Party lost ground after he succeeded Taavi Roivas in 2016, although it was neck and neck with Reform in opinion polls leading up to this election. To their credit the Centre Party only lost 1 seat and remained in second place. Juri's coalition partners, Pro Patria, and the Social Democrats, lost 2 and 5 seats respectively although social democracy as a political force is in long term decline everywhere, even with occasional "bounces". It can be argued that opinion polls have underestimated the impact of online voting in Estonia, one of the most technologically advanced countries in Europe, which resulted in an overestimation of support for the Social Democrats.
The Conservative People's Party of Estonia, very similar to the Swiss People's Party especially due to high levels of rural support, won an extra 12 seats placing them as the third largest party in the Rikikogu, although their hard nationalist stance and lack of urbane appeal means they will not be invited to take part in the next governing coalition, which can realistically only be led by Reform or Centre. Estonia, despite its high levels of technological sophistication, is not immune to the widening gap between rural and urban voters and rural voters' disenchantment with the current state of politics.
Despite this, the "post-ideological" Estonia 200 party narrowly failed to win seats in the Rikikogu, polling only 4.5%, although this was 2 1/2 times as many votes of the Estonian Greens who only found significant support in Tallinn, the Estonian capital, and surprisingly polled relatively poorly in Tartu. Their vote was split by the new Richness of Life Party, who also cut into the Estonian Free Party's vote; their leader, Artur Talvik, was once the leader of the Estonian Free Party. That party lost all 8 of its seats and polled 1.2%, a miserable ninth place nationally. As for the Estonian United Left Party, it failed to even achieve as many votes as it had members, and finished bottom of the poll in half of the electoral districts, with a truly unlucky vote total of 13 in two. Of the Independent candidates, only Harry Raudvere in the sparsely populated and coastal Hiiu-Laaane district polled a remotely respectable vote with 406.
It is perhaps surprising that turnout only reached 63.7%, although election turnout has never been particularly high in the Baltic states. However, this is the second best turnout in modern Estonian history, showing that e-voting can bring out more voters. Britain should adopt it to bring turnout back up to respectable levels, especially amongst young people.
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