My analysis of British local by-elections fom 21/03/19 and other thoughts

Readers, the results of British local by-elections held on 21st March were as follows:

Basildon BC, Vange: Labour 504 (51.3%, +10.1%), Conservative 478 (48.7%, +27.2%). All changes are since 2016.

Durham UA, Esh & Witton Gilbert: Liberal Democrats 1115 (63.3%, +8.4%), Labour 366 (20.7%, -7.2%), Independent (Drion) 155 (8.8%), Conservative 128 (7.3%, -10.0%).

Kensington & Chelsea LBC, Dalgarno: Labour 719 (55.3%, -15.5%), Conservative 306 (23.5%, +2.5%), Liberal Democrats 146 (11.2%, +3.1%), UKIP 68 (5.2%), Green 61 (4.7%).

Newcastle-under-Lyme BC, Holditch & Chesterton: Independent (Owen) 282 (40.3%, +22.3%), Labour 268 (38.3%, -14.7%), UKIP 68 (12.3%, +3.6%), Conservative 49 (7.0%, -8.0%), SDP 14 (2.0%). Independent gain from Labour. [Liberal Democrats did not stand]

Southend-on-Sea UA, Milton: Labour 833 (49.9%, -0.7%), Conservative 528 (31.6%, -0.7%), Liberal Democrats 219 (13.2%, +8.6%), For Britain 89 (5.3%). [Independents and Greens did not stand]

Thurrock UA, Aveley & Uplands: Conservative 773 (43.6%, +16.4%), Thurrock Independents 551 (31.1%, -12.1%), Labour 394 (22.2%,-1.5%), Liberal Democrats 55 (3.1%). [UKIP did not stand]

A lack of a UKIP candidate in Basildon failed to ensure a Conservative gain even though UKIP voters in Basildon almost always lean Conservative, Basildon being the home of the stereotypical self-made Conservative and famous in 1992 for "Sierra man" and in 1997 for "Mondeo man". Undoubtedly, the Conservatives divisions over how Brexit should occur played their part in their failure to win, despite the Labour candidate living in Billericay.

Both Labour and the Conservatives once again fared badly due to Brexit-related wrangling and uncertainty (Labour more so), mainly to the benefit of the Liberal Democrats. However, Esh & Witton Gilbert was already safely Liberal Democrat and the other wards were not winnable for them so the effect was therefore limited.

In Newcastle-under-Lyme, the successful independent councillor, Kenneth Owen, had previously been UKIP councillor for the former Holditch ward, the closest predecessor to Holditch & Chesterton. The fact his former colleagues stood in this by-election proved to be no impediment to his return to Newcastle-under-Lyme borough council; localist politics is stronger than ever in Newcastle-under-Lyme and many other small to medium sized towns.

The Thurrock Independents were not so lucky, however, as the Conservatives achieved an easy gain. The resigning councillor, Tim Aker, had a very strong personal vote in a normally solidly Conservative area; with UKIP out of the picture in light of the entire group forming the Thurrock Independents, a Conservative recapture was assured.

The Conservatives have received bad news of their own on the parliamentary side, though, for Chris Davies, Conservative MP for Brecon & Radnorshire since 2015, pleaded guilty to two counts of expenses fraud, meaning that upon sentencing a recall petition will be triggered very shortly afterwards; one is already taking place in Peterborough following Fiona Onasanya's failed appeal earlier this month.


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