My analysis of the Berkeley Vale by-election, and also three crucial Canadian by-elections
Readers, the results of the Berkeley Vale by-election in Stroud, the only local British by-election to occur yesterday, were as follows:
Stroud DC, Berkeley Vale: Conservative 993 (49.8%, +2.4%), Labour 686 (34.4%, +3.7%), Liberal Democrats 231 (11.6%, -0.9%), Green 82 (4.1%, -5.1%).
Given the rural nature of this ward the swings were unsurprisingly low, despite more Brexit woes; the latest story being plans to hand responsibility for delivering vital medical equipment to a company that could not even source enough chicken for KFC!
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, three important federal by-elections took place in Canada on Tuesday, one of which involved the resignation of former NDP (New Democratic Party) leader Tom Mulcair and another where the new NDP leader, Jagmeet Singh, intended to enter the Canadian House of Commons. The next Canadian federal election is in October, only eight months away, and the polls show a tight race between the Liberals and Conservatives.
In the Outremont by-election, a 12.5% swing to the Liberals was easily enough for Rachel Bendayan, the unsuccessful Liberal candidate in the same riding against Tom Mulcair, to gain the seat. Much of the NDP vote was lost to the Greens, whose federal deputy leader, Daniel Green (green by name and also by nature) ran in this by-election. He polled 12.9% and finished a respectable third ahead of the beleaguered Bloc Quebecois. The Conservatives, by comparison, finished fifth in this by-election with only 6.1% of the vote, the victims of a tactical squeeze.
The "leader bonus" effect that exists in Canadian elections and by-elections proved crucial to Jagmeet Singh's hold of Burnaby South, especially with the NDP only polling 2/3 of their 2015 vote share and with Burnaby South's ethnic composition. Nevertheless the swing against the Liberals was only 5.9%, despite the fact that Canadian PM Justin Trudeau's failure to achieve progressive reforms will hit the Liberal vote in British Columbia more than any other province come October. The Greens' decision not to field a candidate as a "courtesy to Singh" prompted one of their former members, Valentine Wu, to stand as an Independent. His efforts proved fruitless since he finished bottom of the poll with only 169 votes. Of the three by-elections in Canada, this was also the only one to register a strong vote for the People's Party, formed by ex-minister Maxime Bernier, who currently sits for the riding of Beauce, Quebec. They polled 10.6% of the vote in the Burnaby South by-election, compared to miserable vote shares of 1.9% in York-Simcoe and 1.5% in Outremont.
York-Simcoe is one of the safest Conservative ridings of Canada and being rural endured a swing of only 6.3% to the Conservatives, compared to the notional 19.9% swing the Liberals managed against them in 2015. Despite this, the by-election was interesting for recording Dorian Baxter's best ever electoral performance with 3.8% vote running once again under the Progressive Canadian Party banner, which has little real support. In its first federal election outing in Canada, the National Citizens' alliance, a hard-right, anti-immigration and nationalist party which only registered last month, polled the risible sum of 22 votes, behind even perennial candidate John Turmel, and one of the lowest vote totals ever polled in a federal Canadian by-election.
Stroud DC, Berkeley Vale: Conservative 993 (49.8%, +2.4%), Labour 686 (34.4%, +3.7%), Liberal Democrats 231 (11.6%, -0.9%), Green 82 (4.1%, -5.1%).
Given the rural nature of this ward the swings were unsurprisingly low, despite more Brexit woes; the latest story being plans to hand responsibility for delivering vital medical equipment to a company that could not even source enough chicken for KFC!
Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, three important federal by-elections took place in Canada on Tuesday, one of which involved the resignation of former NDP (New Democratic Party) leader Tom Mulcair and another where the new NDP leader, Jagmeet Singh, intended to enter the Canadian House of Commons. The next Canadian federal election is in October, only eight months away, and the polls show a tight race between the Liberals and Conservatives.
In the Outremont by-election, a 12.5% swing to the Liberals was easily enough for Rachel Bendayan, the unsuccessful Liberal candidate in the same riding against Tom Mulcair, to gain the seat. Much of the NDP vote was lost to the Greens, whose federal deputy leader, Daniel Green (green by name and also by nature) ran in this by-election. He polled 12.9% and finished a respectable third ahead of the beleaguered Bloc Quebecois. The Conservatives, by comparison, finished fifth in this by-election with only 6.1% of the vote, the victims of a tactical squeeze.
The "leader bonus" effect that exists in Canadian elections and by-elections proved crucial to Jagmeet Singh's hold of Burnaby South, especially with the NDP only polling 2/3 of their 2015 vote share and with Burnaby South's ethnic composition. Nevertheless the swing against the Liberals was only 5.9%, despite the fact that Canadian PM Justin Trudeau's failure to achieve progressive reforms will hit the Liberal vote in British Columbia more than any other province come October. The Greens' decision not to field a candidate as a "courtesy to Singh" prompted one of their former members, Valentine Wu, to stand as an Independent. His efforts proved fruitless since he finished bottom of the poll with only 169 votes. Of the three by-elections in Canada, this was also the only one to register a strong vote for the People's Party, formed by ex-minister Maxime Bernier, who currently sits for the riding of Beauce, Quebec. They polled 10.6% of the vote in the Burnaby South by-election, compared to miserable vote shares of 1.9% in York-Simcoe and 1.5% in Outremont.
York-Simcoe is one of the safest Conservative ridings of Canada and being rural endured a swing of only 6.3% to the Conservatives, compared to the notional 19.9% swing the Liberals managed against them in 2015. Despite this, the by-election was interesting for recording Dorian Baxter's best ever electoral performance with 3.8% vote running once again under the Progressive Canadian Party banner, which has little real support. In its first federal election outing in Canada, the National Citizens' alliance, a hard-right, anti-immigration and nationalist party which only registered last month, polled the risible sum of 22 votes, behind even perennial candidate John Turmel, and one of the lowest vote totals ever polled in a federal Canadian by-election.
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