The New South Wales election of 2019: Berejiklian shaken but still standing
The New South Wales state election in Australia, taking place on Saturday (NB: Australian election counts take a very long time to complete even at state level, just so you know), surprisingly if narrowly returned the Liberal/National Coalition for a third time in New South Wales, although their majority was sharply reduced to just 3 seats.
The Morrison federal government is still not faring well amongst Australians; it is only slightly behind Labor but this is bad news given that Labor is faring better in the final counts in crucial electorates. In NSW, Labor faced many woes; their former leader, Luke Foley, retired from the NSW legislature after only one term following allegations of sexual harassment by ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) journalist Ashleigh Raper. Their new leader, Michael Daly, has only led NSW Labor for under five months and thus had relatively little time to campaign beforehand. Nevertheless, Labor's vote share decreased by only 0.9% and they did capture the electorates of Coogee and Lismore, the latter of which was almost won by the Greens in 2015. However, many Coalition-Labor marginal swung to the Coalition, including the normally reliably Labor electorate of East Hills which Labor was widely expected to gain. The only incumbents to lose their seats were Bruce Notley in the aformenetioned Cogee, and Austin Evans in Murray; he had represented the electorate for just 19 months.
It was the rural Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, famous for its strong advocacy of gun rights, who did the most damage to the Coalition and could potentially have reduced them to the status of minority government. The SFF Party also held their by-election gain of Orange and also won the National seat of Barwon. Firearms rights are a contentious issue in rural Australia and more so in light of the recent massacre in Christchurch in New Zealand, and Jacinda Ardern, New Zealand's Prime Minister, has announced that semi-automatic weapons will be banned in New Zealand. Many rural Australian voters in New South Wales were concerned that such a ban might be extended to Australia, which along with fears over excessive development on rural land led to a surge in support for that party in rural areas of New South Wales.
The Greens retained their 3 seats with swings in their favour, including Ballina where the gas seam issue that elected Tamara Smith was not particularly significant in this election, which also partly explains their failure to capture Lishmore. However, in Summer Hill, the only other electorate with a realistic chance of electing a Green MP in New South Wales, the Greens dropped to third place in the primary vote and endured a 7.1% swing against them to Labor. In this election, different sections of the Greens' vote were captured in some quantities by three different parties: the pro-civil liberties Keep Sydney Open Party, the Animal Justice Party, and the Sustainable Australia Party, who all fielded candidates in most of the electorates in NSW. The Keep Sydney Open Party polled the best of these despite not standing in the electorate of Sydney itself. The resignation of Legislative Council member Jeremy Buckingham over sexual assault of a NSW Greens worker, cited by Newtown's representative, Jenny Leong, clearly held back the Greens' campaign as well. Jeremy Buckingham contested the Legislative Council of NSW as an Independent, but failed to come even close to retaining his seat. The Greens lost a Legislative Council seat as a result. The Coalition lost 4 seats in the Legislative Council, depriving it of effective control. Meanwhile, the two incumbent independents for the electorates of Lake Macquarie and Sydney held their seats with swings in their favour, and Joe McGirr held Wagga Wagga which he had captured in a by-election.
Although NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian's government has been returned, this will merely be a sigh of relief for the Liberal/National coalition, especially given the fact that opposition weaknesses were a key factor in the Coalition retaining a reduced and narrow majority. Already reduced to minority government status, the Liberal/National coalition is very likely to lose this year's federal Australian election. Major parties in Australia are seeing their vote fragment more and more amongst smaller parties, who whilst rarely having an impact at parliamentary level are greatly diversifying and exerting a significant influence on the Senate and Legislative Councils.
The Morrison federal government is still not faring well amongst Australians; it is only slightly behind Labor but this is bad news given that Labor is faring better in the final counts in crucial electorates. In NSW, Labor faced many woes; their former leader, Luke Foley, retired from the NSW legislature after only one term following allegations of sexual harassment by ABC (Australian Broadcasting Corporation) journalist Ashleigh Raper. Their new leader, Michael Daly, has only led NSW Labor for under five months and thus had relatively little time to campaign beforehand. Nevertheless, Labor's vote share decreased by only 0.9% and they did capture the electorates of Coogee and Lismore, the latter of which was almost won by the Greens in 2015. However, many Coalition-Labor marginal swung to the Coalition, including the normally reliably Labor electorate of East Hills which Labor was widely expected to gain. The only incumbents to lose their seats were Bruce Notley in the aformenetioned Cogee, and Austin Evans in Murray; he had represented the electorate for just 19 months.
It was the rural Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, famous for its strong advocacy of gun rights, who did the most damage to the Coalition and could potentially have reduced them to the status of minority government. The SFF Party also held their by-election gain of Orange and also won the National seat of Barwon. Firearms rights are a contentious issue in rural Australia and more so in light of the recent massacre in Christchurch in New Zealand, and Jacinda Ardern, New Zealand's Prime Minister, has announced that semi-automatic weapons will be banned in New Zealand. Many rural Australian voters in New South Wales were concerned that such a ban might be extended to Australia, which along with fears over excessive development on rural land led to a surge in support for that party in rural areas of New South Wales.
The Greens retained their 3 seats with swings in their favour, including Ballina where the gas seam issue that elected Tamara Smith was not particularly significant in this election, which also partly explains their failure to capture Lishmore. However, in Summer Hill, the only other electorate with a realistic chance of electing a Green MP in New South Wales, the Greens dropped to third place in the primary vote and endured a 7.1% swing against them to Labor. In this election, different sections of the Greens' vote were captured in some quantities by three different parties: the pro-civil liberties Keep Sydney Open Party, the Animal Justice Party, and the Sustainable Australia Party, who all fielded candidates in most of the electorates in NSW. The Keep Sydney Open Party polled the best of these despite not standing in the electorate of Sydney itself. The resignation of Legislative Council member Jeremy Buckingham over sexual assault of a NSW Greens worker, cited by Newtown's representative, Jenny Leong, clearly held back the Greens' campaign as well. Jeremy Buckingham contested the Legislative Council of NSW as an Independent, but failed to come even close to retaining his seat. The Greens lost a Legislative Council seat as a result. The Coalition lost 4 seats in the Legislative Council, depriving it of effective control. Meanwhile, the two incumbent independents for the electorates of Lake Macquarie and Sydney held their seats with swings in their favour, and Joe McGirr held Wagga Wagga which he had captured in a by-election.
Although NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian's government has been returned, this will merely be a sigh of relief for the Liberal/National coalition, especially given the fact that opposition weaknesses were a key factor in the Coalition retaining a reduced and narrow majority. Already reduced to minority government status, the Liberal/National coalition is very likely to lose this year's federal Australian election. Major parties in Australia are seeing their vote fragment more and more amongst smaller parties, who whilst rarely having an impact at parliamentary level are greatly diversifying and exerting a significant influence on the Senate and Legislative Councils.
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