My analysis on British local by-elections of 28/03/19 and other thoughts

Readers, the results of British local by-elections this week were as follows:

Clackmannanshire UA, Clackmannan Central (1st preference votes): SNP 865 (40.9%,, +2.6%), Labour 675 (31.9%, -8.0%), Conservative 419 (19.8%, +3.2%), UKIP 69 (3.3%), Green 53 (2.5%, -2.7%), Liberal Democrats 36 (1.7%). SNP hold at stage 6.

Sutton LBC, Wallington North: Liberal Democrats 1039 (38.2%, -7.7%), Conservative 709 (26.1%, +0.5%), Independent (Sawyer) 381 (14.0%), Labour 301 (11.1%, -5.6%), Green 166 (6.1%, -2.3%), UKIP 104 (3.8%, +0.5%), CPA 17 (0.6%).

The SNP were able to regain some lost ground in Clackmannanshire due to Labour's stances on Brexit being mainly for partisan advantage and not on principle, which also helped them hold the seat. However, despite their intransigence on Brexit, which the SNP opposes, the swing from Labour to SNP was only 5.3%. The Scottish Greens found themselves squeezed by the SNP's small recovery.

In Greater London, localist politics is mainly confined to Havering and parts of Merton, but an Independent, Gervais Sawyer, representing the Sutton Residents' Association made an impact on the Wallington North by-election. He finished third but the Liberal Democrats lost many votes to him as they had to allied independents in 2018; this happened again even though Gervais Sawyer was never part of the Liberal Democrats. The announcement from Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn that he would support a second referendum on Brexit but only to stop a Conservative Brexit cost it some votes as well; Sutton was one of the few London Boroughs that voted Leave in the 2016 referendum; Carshalton and Wallington's Leave vote was estimated at 56%, one of the highest in Greater London; it also has a considerable lower middle class population which often swings Labour-Liberal Democrat to and fro. The Greens also found their vote squeezed in this by-election although they retained more of their 2018 vote share than Labour did.

Today, Theresa May's deal was rejected for a third time by 286-344, and with only two weeks to go before Britain leaves the EU on 12th April (originally today; a two-week extension to the original withdrawal date was granted by EU leaders recently). As I have reiterated, the deal in question is just as bad as leaving the EU without a deal. There are clearly only three sensible ways forward from the Brexit chaos now: a snap general election later this year, a second referendum, or revocation of Article 50, the last of which should ideally succeed the outcome of either a snap general election or a second referendum on Brexit.

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