My analysis on British local by-elections of 28/03/19 and other thoughts

Readers, the results of British local by-elections this week were as follows:

Clackmannanshire UA, Clackmannan Central (1st preference votes): SNP 865 (40.9%,, +2.6%), Labour 675 (31.9%, -8.0%), Conservative 419 (19.8%, +3.2%), UKIP 69 (3.3%), Green 53 (2.5%, -2.7%), Liberal Democrats 36 (1.7%). SNP hold at stage 6.

Sutton LBC, Wallington North: Liberal Democrats 1039 (38.2%, -7.7%), Conservative 709 (26.1%, +0.5%), Independent (Sawyer) 381 (14.0%), Labour 301 (11.1%, -5.6%), Green 166 (6.1%, -2.3%), UKIP 104 (3.8%, +0.5%), CPA 17 (0.6%).

The SNP were able to regain some lost ground in Clackmannanshire due to Labour's stances on Brexit being mainly for partisan advantage and not on principle, which also helped them hold the seat. However, despite their intransigence on Brexit, which the SNP opposes, the swing from Labour to SNP was only 5.3%. The Scottish Greens found themselves squeezed by the SNP's small recovery.

In Greater London, localist politics is mainly confined to Havering and parts of Merton, but an Independent, Gervais Sawyer, representing the Sutton Residents' Association made an impact on the Wallington North by-election. He finished third but the Liberal Democrats lost many votes to him as they had to allied independents in 2018; this happened again even though Gervais Sawyer was never part of the Liberal Democrats. The announcement from Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn that he would support a second referendum on Brexit but only to stop a Conservative Brexit cost it some votes as well; Sutton was one of the few London Boroughs that voted Leave in the 2016 referendum; Carshalton and Wallington's Leave vote was estimated at 56%, one of the highest in Greater London; it also has a considerable lower middle class population which often swings Labour-Liberal Democrat to and fro. The Greens also found their vote squeezed in this by-election although they retained more of their 2018 vote share than Labour did.

Today, Theresa May's deal was rejected for a third time by 286-344, and with only two weeks to go before Britain leaves the EU on 12th April (originally today; a two-week extension to the original withdrawal date was granted by EU leaders recently). As I have reiterated, the deal in question is just as bad as leaving the EU without a deal. There are clearly only three sensible ways forward from the Brexit chaos now: a snap general election later this year, a second referendum, or revocation of Article 50, the last of which should ideally succeed the outcome of either a snap general election or a second referendum on Brexit.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

My analysis of local by-elections from 22/11/18

Readers, the results of this week's British local by-elections were as follows: Enfield LBC, Bush Hill Park: Conservative 1540 (52.4%, +12.7%), Labour 828 (28.2%, -8.3%), Liberal Democrats 313 (10.7%, -0.8%), Green 127 (4.3%, -6.6%), WEP 79 (2.7%), Independent (Oyaloyu) 50 (1.7%). [UKIP did not stand] Westminster LBC, Lancaster Gate: Conservative 913 (47.2%, -1.5%), Labour 684 (35.4%, -1.0%), Liberal Democrats 275 (14.2%, -0.7%), Green 62 (3.2%). Windsor & Maidenhead UA, Datchet: Conservative 525 (56.0%, -3.1%), National Flood Prevention Party 223 (23.8%), Labour 121 (12.9%, -9.1%), Liberal Democrats 48 (5.1%,-13.8%), Green 21 (2.2%). Wirral MBC, Upton: Labour 1490 (61.3%, +3.1%), Conservative 705 (29.0%, +0.4%), Green 151 (6.2%, -0.5%), Liberal Democrats 83 (3.4%, -0.8%). [TUSC did not stand] All changes are since May. The open divisions in the Conservatives, which resulted in a failed attempt to call for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May by the European Researc...
Read more

On the 2020 Serbian election: Why a boycott will only worsen things there

First of all, I apologise for the recent hiatus; however elections are still postponed or on hold in many countries, including the UK. Serbia, however, was able to proceed with its 2020 general election amidst this crisis. Its overall result proved reminiscent of Hungarian elections under Viktor Orban's tenure (2010-present), since the leading national-conservative coalition, the SNS (Progressive Party of Serbia) coalition led by Serbian President Aleksander Vucic (Ana Brnabic is the Serbian Prime Minister, and the first woman and openly homosexual person to hold that position), polled 61.6% of the vote, giving them as many as 191 seats out of 250 and a majority of as high as 132, almost unheard of in any country with proportional representation. Press freedom has endured significant curbs since President Vucic first came into power as Serbian PM in 2012 (he became President of Serbia in 2017), as have civil liberties of Serbs in general. Nepotism and corruption in the Serbian ...
Read more

On the French local elections of 2020: Vive le surge de vert!

The French local elections finally concluded yesterday, having been originally scheduled to take place on 15 March; they were postponed due to the effects of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic.  The most sensational story of these elections was the many triumphs by the main French Green Party, Europe Ecologie-Les Verts (EELV). In major French cities (those with more than 100,000 people), EELV captured the mayoralties of Annecy, Besancon, Bordeaux, Lyon, Marseille, Strasbourg, and Tours. They also performed impressively in the munciipal elections for those cities as well. However, in the midst of all this triumph there was one notable setback for them: Eric Pollie, the first Green Mayor of a major French city, decided to contest the mayoral election there as an "Independent Left" (divers gauche) candidate instead. Furthermore they narrowly missed out on unseating former PS leader Martine Aubry from her post as Mayor of Lille; in the second round she held on by 227 votes, a sig...
Read more