My analysis of British local by-elections from 14/3/19 and one from 7/3/19
Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the last fortnight were as follows:
(07/03/19):
Aylesbury DC, Haddenham & Stone: Green 1210 (50.8%, +36.7%), Conservative 781 (32.8%, -6.3%), Liberal Democrats 333 (14.0%, -0.1%), Labour 59 (2.5%). Green gain from Conservative [UKIP and Independents did not stand]
(14/03/19):
Croydon LBC, Norbury & Pollards Hill: Labour 1379 (64.5%, -3.2%), Conservative 324 (15.2%, -7.0%), Independent (O'Grady) 162 (7.6%), Green 91 (4.3%, -5.9%), Independent (Roznerska) 72 (3.4%), Liberal Democrats 70 (3.3%), UKIP 40 (1.9%).
Durham UA, Wingate: Labour 458 (64.1%, -9.6%), Liberal Democrats 163 (22.8%, +20.1%), North East Party 74 (10.3%, +0.4%), For Britain 20 (1.8%). [Conservatives did not stand]
Southampton UA, Coxford: Labour 668 (26.3%, -1.9%), Conservative 529 (20.8%, +4.4%), Liberal Democrats 450 (17.7%, +14.7%), Socialist Alternative 368 (14.5%), Integrity Southampton 178 (7.0%), Independent (McQuillian/Lambert*), 174 (6.8%, +4.4%), UKIP 123 (4.8%), Green 53 (2.1%, -0.9%). Labour gain from Independent; all changes are since 2018 when Keith Morrell, the resigning Independent councillor, was last elected.
*Richard McQuillian appeared on the ballot papers in this by-election as Ricky Lambert.
Last week, the Green Party made a historic breakthrough in Buckinghamshire, where a Green councillor had never been elected before at either district or county level. The new Green Party councillor, David Lyons, had been the parliamentary candidate for the constituency of Aylesbury in 2015 and is also a parish councillor in Haddenham, meaning his local profile (the Conservative candidate in that by-election, meanwhile, lived in Aylesbury town itself) played a key part in securing him victory in this by-election, with a 21.5% swing to the Green Party. It is unfortunate in this respect that all of Buckinghamshire's district council elections have been cancelled pending replacement by a single unitary council for Buckinghamshire, even though Buckinghamshire's size, both in terms of land area and population, makes this arrangement highly inappropriate.
It was a bad week for Labour, even though they were defending normally safe seats this week. It is fair to say Brexit wrangling harmed both major parties, notwithstanding the fact that there was no Conservative candidate in Wingate. Labour suffered vote share losses in all three local by-elections on Thursday, most notably in Southampton. In Croydon, it appears that Independent Mark O'Grady, whose performance is the best for an Independent candidate in Croydon locally since 1981, was likely responsible for the Conservatives' considerable vote share loss in a very safe Labour ward. The other Independent, Margaret Roznerska, who formerly stood for the Duma Polska (Polish Pride) Party, fared no better than most Independent candidates in Greater London, nor did she improve on her performance in Thornton Heath.
In Wingate, Durham, the Liberal Democrats absorbed much of the Conservative vote in the absence of a Conservative candidate and amidst wrangling over Brexit amendments, whereas surprisingly the North East Party made no significant improvement, despite having 3 councillors in Durham not too far from Wingate.
Coxford, Southampton, provided the longest ballot paper of this week's by-elections and the most interesting by far. Beforehand, Socialist Alternative, formerly the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (TUSC), had supported Keith Morrell and allied Independent councillor Tammy Thomas. Keith had originally been elected on opposition to the closure of swimming pools in the area. This by-election provided useful evidence of the residual vote effect, whereby votes for a smaller party that have been almost entirely built by one candidate and through the personal vote of said candidate can still remain stronger than average even after that candidate resigns, dies, or otherwise does not stand for re-election. Brent Central illustrated this effect in 2015, as did North East Cambridgeshire to a more considerable extent in 1992. The Socialist Alternative, which normally obtains derisory levels of support in local elections, finished a good fourth in Coxford and somewhat stemmed Labour's recovery of its former vote, although a Labour recapture was a foregone conclusion. Richard McQuillian performed surprisingly well given how low his local support normally is at election time, due to some local electors wanting to see a change from the Labour-Conservative-Labour merry-go-round that occurs in Southampton's local elections for the most part. The Liberal Democrats managed a surprisingly strong performance in that by-election thus.
On another note, thank you to everyone who organised and participated in youth climate strikes across Britain today, and reminding us how we must act on climate change and global warming now, not later.
(07/03/19):
Aylesbury DC, Haddenham & Stone: Green 1210 (50.8%, +36.7%), Conservative 781 (32.8%, -6.3%), Liberal Democrats 333 (14.0%, -0.1%), Labour 59 (2.5%). Green gain from Conservative [UKIP and Independents did not stand]
(14/03/19):
Croydon LBC, Norbury & Pollards Hill: Labour 1379 (64.5%, -3.2%), Conservative 324 (15.2%, -7.0%), Independent (O'Grady) 162 (7.6%), Green 91 (4.3%, -5.9%), Independent (Roznerska) 72 (3.4%), Liberal Democrats 70 (3.3%), UKIP 40 (1.9%).
Durham UA, Wingate: Labour 458 (64.1%, -9.6%), Liberal Democrats 163 (22.8%, +20.1%), North East Party 74 (10.3%, +0.4%), For Britain 20 (1.8%). [Conservatives did not stand]
Southampton UA, Coxford: Labour 668 (26.3%, -1.9%), Conservative 529 (20.8%, +4.4%), Liberal Democrats 450 (17.7%, +14.7%), Socialist Alternative 368 (14.5%), Integrity Southampton 178 (7.0%), Independent (McQuillian/Lambert*), 174 (6.8%, +4.4%), UKIP 123 (4.8%), Green 53 (2.1%, -0.9%). Labour gain from Independent; all changes are since 2018 when Keith Morrell, the resigning Independent councillor, was last elected.
*Richard McQuillian appeared on the ballot papers in this by-election as Ricky Lambert.
Last week, the Green Party made a historic breakthrough in Buckinghamshire, where a Green councillor had never been elected before at either district or county level. The new Green Party councillor, David Lyons, had been the parliamentary candidate for the constituency of Aylesbury in 2015 and is also a parish councillor in Haddenham, meaning his local profile (the Conservative candidate in that by-election, meanwhile, lived in Aylesbury town itself) played a key part in securing him victory in this by-election, with a 21.5% swing to the Green Party. It is unfortunate in this respect that all of Buckinghamshire's district council elections have been cancelled pending replacement by a single unitary council for Buckinghamshire, even though Buckinghamshire's size, both in terms of land area and population, makes this arrangement highly inappropriate.
It was a bad week for Labour, even though they were defending normally safe seats this week. It is fair to say Brexit wrangling harmed both major parties, notwithstanding the fact that there was no Conservative candidate in Wingate. Labour suffered vote share losses in all three local by-elections on Thursday, most notably in Southampton. In Croydon, it appears that Independent Mark O'Grady, whose performance is the best for an Independent candidate in Croydon locally since 1981, was likely responsible for the Conservatives' considerable vote share loss in a very safe Labour ward. The other Independent, Margaret Roznerska, who formerly stood for the Duma Polska (Polish Pride) Party, fared no better than most Independent candidates in Greater London, nor did she improve on her performance in Thornton Heath.
In Wingate, Durham, the Liberal Democrats absorbed much of the Conservative vote in the absence of a Conservative candidate and amidst wrangling over Brexit amendments, whereas surprisingly the North East Party made no significant improvement, despite having 3 councillors in Durham not too far from Wingate.
Coxford, Southampton, provided the longest ballot paper of this week's by-elections and the most interesting by far. Beforehand, Socialist Alternative, formerly the Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition (TUSC), had supported Keith Morrell and allied Independent councillor Tammy Thomas. Keith had originally been elected on opposition to the closure of swimming pools in the area. This by-election provided useful evidence of the residual vote effect, whereby votes for a smaller party that have been almost entirely built by one candidate and through the personal vote of said candidate can still remain stronger than average even after that candidate resigns, dies, or otherwise does not stand for re-election. Brent Central illustrated this effect in 2015, as did North East Cambridgeshire to a more considerable extent in 1992. The Socialist Alternative, which normally obtains derisory levels of support in local elections, finished a good fourth in Coxford and somewhat stemmed Labour's recovery of its former vote, although a Labour recapture was a foregone conclusion. Richard McQuillian performed surprisingly well given how low his local support normally is at election time, due to some local electors wanting to see a change from the Labour-Conservative-Labour merry-go-round that occurs in Southampton's local elections for the most part. The Liberal Democrats managed a surprisingly strong performance in that by-election thus.
On another note, thank you to everyone who organised and participated in youth climate strikes across Britain today, and reminding us how we must act on climate change and global warming now, not later.
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