Alan's Green Thoughts

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from this week were as follows: Bromley LBC, Kelsey & Eden Park: Conservative 1626 (45.2%, -0.5%), Labour1046 (29.1%, +2.3%), Liberal Democrats 633 (17.6%, +4.2%), UKIP 219 (6.1%, +2.2%), Green 73 (2.0%, -8.1%). Buckinghamshire CC, Aylesbury North West: Liberal Democrats 654 (39.3%, +9.5%), Conservative 507 (30.5%,+5.9%), Labour 426 (25.6%, +2.9%), Green 77 (4.6%, +1.4%). [UKIP did not stand] Northampton BC, Delapre & Briar Hill: Labour 914 (43.4%, +17.2%), Conservative 549 (26.0%, +2.4%), Independent (McKenna) 417 (19.8%), Liberal Democrats 133 (6.3%, -9.9%), Green 95 (4.5%). [UKIP, Save Our Public Services and BNP did not stand] OIdham MBC, Failsworth East: Labour 677 (58.5%, +5.3%), Conservative 336 (29.0%, +0.5%), Independent (Bates) 94 (8.1%), UKIP 32 (2.8%), Liberal Democrats 18 (1.6%,+0.4%).[Previous Independent and Green Party did not stand] All changes are since May. Oxfordshire CC, Wheatley: Liberal Democrat...

" Oppositions don't win elections-governments lose them." -Political adage. In the Victoria state election of 2018, the odds were in Labor's favour over the Liberals right from the start-but they beat expectations nonetheless and achieved a landslide majority of 30 in an 88 seat state parliament. It was earlier believed that due to Green advances in inner Melbourne electorates, helped by favourable demogfraphic change, that far from winning an easy majority Labor might possibly have to rely on the Greens for confidence and supply. The Liberal/National Coalition, led by Matthew Guy, campaigned heavily on law & order issues and the need to shift Melbourne's rapidly growing population more to its outlying satellite towns and rural areas, but Labor under current Premier Daniel Andrews was doing well throughout the 2014-18 Victoria Parliament, meaning that it was on course to victory throughout the campaign whether or not it would fall short of an overall major...

Readers, the results of this week's British local by-elections were as follows: Enfield LBC, Bush Hill Park: Conservative 1540 (52.4%, +12.7%), Labour 828 (28.2%, -8.3%), Liberal Democrats 313 (10.7%, -0.8%), Green 127 (4.3%, -6.6%), WEP 79 (2.7%), Independent (Oyaloyu) 50 (1.7%). [UKIP did not stand] Westminster LBC, Lancaster Gate: Conservative 913 (47.2%, -1.5%), Labour 684 (35.4%, -1.0%), Liberal Democrats 275 (14.2%, -0.7%), Green 62 (3.2%). Windsor & Maidenhead UA, Datchet: Conservative 525 (56.0%, -3.1%), National Flood Prevention Party 223 (23.8%), Labour 121 (12.9%, -9.1%), Liberal Democrats 48 (5.1%,-13.8%), Green 21 (2.2%). Wirral MBC, Upton: Labour 1490 (61.3%, +3.1%), Conservative 705 (29.0%, +0.4%), Green 151 (6.2%, -0.5%), Liberal Democrats 83 (3.4%, -0.8%). [TUSC did not stand] All changes are since May. The open divisions in the Conservatives, which resulted in a failed attempt to call for a vote of no confidence in Theresa May by the European Researc...

Readers, the results from British local by-elections of this week were as follows: Bassetlaw DC, East Retford West: Labour 441 (49.9%, +14.1%), Conservative 296 (33.5%, +4.2%), Liberal Democrats 146 (16.5%, +3.4%). [UKIP did not stand] Kent CC, Canterbury North: Conservative 1355 (42.3%, -12.3%), Liberal Democrats 756 (23.6%, +7.1%), Labour 660 (20.6%, +4.1%), Green 157 (4.9%, -1.9%), Independent 155 (4.8%), UKIP 120 (3.7%, -1.9%). Oxfordshire CC, Grove & Wantage: Liberal Democrats 1925 (47.9%, +2.4%), Conservative 1447 (36.0%, -0.9%), Labour 459 (11.4%, +2.7%), Green 185 (4.6%, -4.1%). Stroud DC, Dursley: Labour 889 (50.5%, +15.2%), Conservative 704 (40.0%, +15.4%), Green 90 (5.1%, -9.8%), Liberal Democrats 79 (4.5%, -20.7%). Bassetlaw has been trending towards the Conservatives recently, like many ex-mining districts in England, with the constituency of Bassetlaw turning up the lowest Labour majority since 1983 in last year's general election. However, in ...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections this week were as follows: Ealing LBC, Dormers Wells: Labour 1868 (72.1%, +1.6%), Conservative 429 (16.6%, +1.2%), Liberal Democrats 188 (7.3%, +3.6%), Green 106 (4.1%, -3.5%). [Polish Pride did not stand] Harlow BC, Bush Fair: Labour 543 (45.0%, +0.0%), Conservative 460 (38.1%, -0.8%), UKIP 103 (8.5%, -2.5%), Harlow Alliance 63 (5.2%), Liberal Democrats 39 (3.2%, -1.8%). All changes are since May. Harlow BC, Netteswell: Labour 497 (50.2%, -13.0%), Conservative 254 (25.6%,-0.7%), Harlow Alliance 99 (10.0%), UKIP 98 (9.9%, +3.6%), Liberal Democrats 43 (4.3%, +0.2%).All changes are since May. Torridge DC, Holsworthy: Conservative 698 (56.4%, +15.7%), Independent (Allen) 314 (25.4%), Liberal Democrats 151 (12.2%, -6.6%),Labour 75 (6.1%). [UKIP and Greens did not stand] Amongst these local by-elections, the performance of the Harlow Alliance is interesting for good reason. Harlow is a "New Town" and therefore has not ha...

The midterm elections of the United States of America produced a very interesting result-the Republicans, under President Donald Trump, secured control of the Senate with 3 gains, but lost control of the House of Representatives to the Democrats. Due to the lack of spending limits in US elections, and the restrictive ballot access laws, the majority of federal elections in the USA are between just the Democrats and the Republicans, although the Greens and Libertarians are gaining ground very slowly. The Senate elections resulted in independents Angus King and Bernie Sanders easily holding their seats, but surprisingly given the unpopularity of President Trump resulted in the Republicans gaining 3 Senate seats which were up for election this year. Mike Braun defeated Joe Donnelly in Indiana, in the key state of Missouri Josh Hawley defeated Claire McCaskill, and in North Dakota Kevin Cramer decisively defeated Heidi Heiklamp. The Democrats compensated this by gaining a senate seat...

Six days ago (I apologise for the delay; it happened due to the amount of time needed for the report on the Brazilian elections and my postgraduate politics studies at Keele University), Hesse held its state election, which, if not to the extent of Bavaria (Bayern) two weeks ago, experienced a Green surge with the Greens finishing second, narrowly ahead of the Social Democrats (SPD). The Greens managed to poll 19.8%, which whilst not quite as good as polls initially expected is the best ever Green result achieved in Hesse. They won a total of 29 seats, more than doubling their 2013 total, which included as many as five single member constituencies for the first time ever at Land level in Hesse; normally the size of the SMCs at state and federal level in Germany makes it very difficult for them to be won by parties other than the CDU and SPD. Just as in Bavaria, the CDU and SPD suffered substantial losses, with the CDU dropping to 40 seats and just 27% of the vote...

Readers, the results of British local by-elections which took place yesterday (All Saints' Day) were as follows: Kirklees MBC, Denby Dale: Labour 1834 (46.7%, +3.8%), Conservative 1689 (43.0%, -4.2%), Liberal Democrats 289 (7.4%, +4.6%), Green 116 (3.0%, -4.2%). Labour gain from Conservative; all changes are since this May. Newham LBC, Boleyn: Labour 1725 (74.8%, +1.2%), Conservative 327 (14.2%, -0.5%), Green 172 (7.5%, -4.2%), Liberal Democrats 83 (3.6%). South Gloucestershire UA, Dodington: Liberal Democrats 693 (49.3%, +8.6%), Conservative 554 (39.4%, +17.3%), Labour 158 (11.3%, -0.7%). [UKIP did not stand] Labour's gain from the Conservatives in Denby Dale is a critical one, since Dewsbury is still a key marginal at general election time and Denby Dale is a small village that also has excellent links to metropolitan Yorkshire. Surprisingly, the Liberal Democrats and Greens swapped places from this May even though the ward is only marginal between the Conservatives a...

The recent Brazilian Presidential election, where the second round between hard-right populist Jair Bolsonaro from the Social Liberal Party (which in value terms is no longer social liberal at all, ever since Jair became its leader) and socialist Workers' Party candidate Fernando Haddad concluded two weeks after the Chamber of Deputies elections in Brazil, resulted in a decisive victory for Jair Bolsonaro, arguably Brazil's closest answer to Donald Trump. Given the awful comments Jair Bolsonaro has made, his praising of torture and the infamous dictatorial era in Brazil, and his desire to raze the Amazon for development purposes, how did he do it? 1. He played the "anti-establishment" card when he was clearly anything but. In the manner of Donald Trump in 2016, Jair Bolsonaro made hardline and controversial statements to make himself appear fresh compared to the Workers' Party (PT), perceived by some as corrupt and tired, especially after former Presi...