On recent Australian elections: Two-party barriers are closing up in Australia
It is my 27th birthday today, readers, but I do not let this stop me from carrying out the important task of analysing elections from around the world.
Two weeks ago, Tasmania held its most recent state election. However, I could not fully analyse it initially because the transfers for the final seats (Tasmania uses Single Transferable Vote for its Assembly, not Alternative Vote which most Australian states do). There are only 25 seats in the Tasmanian House of Assembly so every seat gain or loss is quite significant. The Liberals managed to win a second consecutive term of office in Tasmania, which they have not managed for 32 years, although they did lose 2 of their seats giving them a majority of just one. This happened despite their first preference vote share only decreasing by 0.96%, still leaving them with 50.2%. Labor meanwhile gained 3 seats, increasing their 1st preference vote by 5.3%, and the Greens lost 1 of their seats, with their 1st preference vote share decreasing by 3.5%. This is however less than half of the vote share decrease they suffered in the previous Tasmanian state election where their vote share dropped from 21.61% to 13.83% and lost 2 of their 5 seats. The 2 seats won by the Greens in Tasmania is the lowest since 1998.
The Jacqui Lambie Network, formed by former Tasmanian Senator Jacqui Lambie, failed to win any seats with 3.16%, but transfers from it unfriendly to the Liberals in the later stages undoubtedly played a part in those Liberal seat losses, which could not be countered by friendlier transfers from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (National voters in the vast rural expanse of Australia are the most inclined towards them, and Tasmania has no National Party as such) which polled 2.28% in this election, also failing to win any seats or make it to the final stage in any seat. Because of the high quotas needed for representation, in addition to a relatively small population, Tasmanian elections do not attract large numbers of candidates despite using a fair voting system.
The South Australian state election of 2018 will be remembered as one of the most important in recent Australian electoral history for several reasons. The most important was the failure by SA-BEST (formerly the Nick Xenophon Team) to make the breakthrough they were hoping for. They polled only 13.7%, well below earlier predictions of 20% or more, and failed to win any seats in the South Australian Parliament. Its leader, Nick Xenophon, did not come close to winning the division of Hartley despite having prepared months beforehand, and they could not capitalise on their success of 2016 when they won the federal division of Mayo. In only 10 of South Australia's 47 divisions (34 of which are in Adelaide itself) did SA-BEST finish second, although they did not contest every division in any case. The closest SA-BEST came to winning a seat was in the division of Heysen, where John Illingworth finished only 3.8% behind the Liberals' Josh Teague in the two-candidate-preferred vote. However, SA-BEST won 2 seats in the Legislative Council (the upper house of South Australia) in compensation, although as a result of the failure to enter the lower house, Nick Xenophon (a former Senator) ruled out a return to federal politics: http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/sa-election-2018/election-2018-after-his-personal-defeat-sa-best-leader-nick-xenophon/news-story/1c07e88ddb746e68068430c47884bd79
SA-BEST managed to take votes from all three of the largest parties in Australia-especially the Liberals but Labor and the Greens lost some votes to SA-BEST. The Greens performed well when SA-BEST was not contesting the seat, though; their best result was in Adelaide with 12.9%, a 1% increase. In Heysen, meanwhile, an SA-BEST target and long considered the Greens' best division in South Australia at state level, they finished a poor fourth with 11.5%, a decrease of 8.1%.
Another reason is that the new Liberal government in South Australia ends 16 years of Labor governance-and entirely down to a favourable redistribution of divisions. The Liberals have therefore not met a net gain on notional results, and with two seats in doubt at this time of writing (Adelaide and Mawson) they could actually make a notional loss. When the South Australian boundary commission finalised the new electorates, the Liberals ended up with a majority of 5 as opposed to a previous Labour majority of 1. On the new boundaries, only one Labor division-King-was won by the Liberals, and the Liberals lost Mount Gambier to one of their former colleagues, Troy Bell, who successfully stood as an Independent. Duncan McFetridge, who lost preselection to Stephen Patterson, only finished third as an Independent in the Morphett division with just 13.9%. It was also the only division where SA-BEST and finished fourth or lower.
The federal Batman by-election, caused by the resignation of David Feeney as part of the dual citizenship crisis of representatives in Australia (David Feeney had not renounced British citizenship, making him ineligible to sit in the Australian Parliament), proved to be another bitter blow to those hoping to fully break-up the two party deadlock. The Greens' Alex Bathal had in 2016 only missed out on the seat by a 2% margin in the two-candidate-preferred vote, but this time she incurred a 3.6% swing against her. In the absence of a Liberal candidate, both Labor and the Greens increased their vote share, but Labor's increased by more than double that of the Greens and the Conservatives' final transfers proved friendlier to Labor, who still have some social conservatives in their ranks especially if they are Roman Catholic (this is not the case with Ged Kearney, who is president of the Australian Council of Trade Unions!). I will point out here that the Australian Conservatives are much more conservative, especially socially, than Australia's main "conservative" party, the Liberals, and are more akin to UKIP in Britain than the British Conservatives. The Australian Greens have some work to do if they wish to win extra seats in the Australian House of Representatives, and we are already halfway through the current Australian Parliament, where the maximum duration is just 3 years. Of a more pressing concern for them, the crucial state election of Victoria, the Greens' best state in Australia, is only eight months away and at least two extra seats are in their sights there.
On the same day, Western Australia held a state by-election in Cottesloe, which was an easy Liberal hold with the Greens making a significant improvement in the absence of a Labor candidate; the only interesting event of that state by-election is former Mosman Park mayor Ron Morris achieving a decent result of 9% for the Western Australia Party.
Two weeks ago, Tasmania held its most recent state election. However, I could not fully analyse it initially because the transfers for the final seats (Tasmania uses Single Transferable Vote for its Assembly, not Alternative Vote which most Australian states do). There are only 25 seats in the Tasmanian House of Assembly so every seat gain or loss is quite significant. The Liberals managed to win a second consecutive term of office in Tasmania, which they have not managed for 32 years, although they did lose 2 of their seats giving them a majority of just one. This happened despite their first preference vote share only decreasing by 0.96%, still leaving them with 50.2%. Labor meanwhile gained 3 seats, increasing their 1st preference vote by 5.3%, and the Greens lost 1 of their seats, with their 1st preference vote share decreasing by 3.5%. This is however less than half of the vote share decrease they suffered in the previous Tasmanian state election where their vote share dropped from 21.61% to 13.83% and lost 2 of their 5 seats. The 2 seats won by the Greens in Tasmania is the lowest since 1998.
The Jacqui Lambie Network, formed by former Tasmanian Senator Jacqui Lambie, failed to win any seats with 3.16%, but transfers from it unfriendly to the Liberals in the later stages undoubtedly played a part in those Liberal seat losses, which could not be countered by friendlier transfers from the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (National voters in the vast rural expanse of Australia are the most inclined towards them, and Tasmania has no National Party as such) which polled 2.28% in this election, also failing to win any seats or make it to the final stage in any seat. Because of the high quotas needed for representation, in addition to a relatively small population, Tasmanian elections do not attract large numbers of candidates despite using a fair voting system.
The South Australian state election of 2018 will be remembered as one of the most important in recent Australian electoral history for several reasons. The most important was the failure by SA-BEST (formerly the Nick Xenophon Team) to make the breakthrough they were hoping for. They polled only 13.7%, well below earlier predictions of 20% or more, and failed to win any seats in the South Australian Parliament. Its leader, Nick Xenophon, did not come close to winning the division of Hartley despite having prepared months beforehand, and they could not capitalise on their success of 2016 when they won the federal division of Mayo. In only 10 of South Australia's 47 divisions (34 of which are in Adelaide itself) did SA-BEST finish second, although they did not contest every division in any case. The closest SA-BEST came to winning a seat was in the division of Heysen, where John Illingworth finished only 3.8% behind the Liberals' Josh Teague in the two-candidate-preferred vote. However, SA-BEST won 2 seats in the Legislative Council (the upper house of South Australia) in compensation, although as a result of the failure to enter the lower house, Nick Xenophon (a former Senator) ruled out a return to federal politics: http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/sa-election-2018/election-2018-after-his-personal-defeat-sa-best-leader-nick-xenophon/news-story/1c07e88ddb746e68068430c47884bd79
SA-BEST managed to take votes from all three of the largest parties in Australia-especially the Liberals but Labor and the Greens lost some votes to SA-BEST. The Greens performed well when SA-BEST was not contesting the seat, though; their best result was in Adelaide with 12.9%, a 1% increase. In Heysen, meanwhile, an SA-BEST target and long considered the Greens' best division in South Australia at state level, they finished a poor fourth with 11.5%, a decrease of 8.1%.
Another reason is that the new Liberal government in South Australia ends 16 years of Labor governance-and entirely down to a favourable redistribution of divisions. The Liberals have therefore not met a net gain on notional results, and with two seats in doubt at this time of writing (Adelaide and Mawson) they could actually make a notional loss. When the South Australian boundary commission finalised the new electorates, the Liberals ended up with a majority of 5 as opposed to a previous Labour majority of 1. On the new boundaries, only one Labor division-King-was won by the Liberals, and the Liberals lost Mount Gambier to one of their former colleagues, Troy Bell, who successfully stood as an Independent. Duncan McFetridge, who lost preselection to Stephen Patterson, only finished third as an Independent in the Morphett division with just 13.9%. It was also the only division where SA-BEST and finished fourth or lower.
The federal Batman by-election, caused by the resignation of David Feeney as part of the dual citizenship crisis of representatives in Australia (David Feeney had not renounced British citizenship, making him ineligible to sit in the Australian Parliament), proved to be another bitter blow to those hoping to fully break-up the two party deadlock. The Greens' Alex Bathal had in 2016 only missed out on the seat by a 2% margin in the two-candidate-preferred vote, but this time she incurred a 3.6% swing against her. In the absence of a Liberal candidate, both Labor and the Greens increased their vote share, but Labor's increased by more than double that of the Greens and the Conservatives' final transfers proved friendlier to Labor, who still have some social conservatives in their ranks especially if they are Roman Catholic (this is not the case with Ged Kearney, who is president of the Australian Council of Trade Unions!). I will point out here that the Australian Conservatives are much more conservative, especially socially, than Australia's main "conservative" party, the Liberals, and are more akin to UKIP in Britain than the British Conservatives. The Australian Greens have some work to do if they wish to win extra seats in the Australian House of Representatives, and we are already halfway through the current Australian Parliament, where the maximum duration is just 3 years. Of a more pressing concern for them, the crucial state election of Victoria, the Greens' best state in Australia, is only eight months away and at least two extra seats are in their sights there.
On the same day, Western Australia held a state by-election in Cottesloe, which was an easy Liberal hold with the Greens making a significant improvement in the absence of a Labor candidate; the only interesting event of that state by-election is former Mosman Park mayor Ron Morris achieving a decent result of 9% for the Western Australia Party.
Comments
Post a Comment