My analysis of British local by-elections from 08/03/18

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 8 March 2018 were as follows:

Bolton MBC, Farnworth: Farnworth & Kersley First 1204 (47.5%), Labour 969 (38.2%,-10.1%), UKIP 169 (6.7%, -29.7%), Conservative 153 (6.0%, -2.6%), Liberal Democrats 23 (0.9%, -2.1%), Green 18 (0.7%, -2.8%). Farnworth & Kersley first gain from Labour; all changes are since 2016.

Dacorum BC, Northchurch: Liberal Democrats 545 (59.2%, +40.4%), Conservative 260 (28.2%, -32.1%), Labour 97 (10.5%, -1.7%), Green 19 (2.1%, -6.6%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.

East Hampshire DC, Petersfield Bell Hill: Independent (Matthews) 178 (32.6%), Liberal Democrats 156 (28.6%, +14.5%), Conservative 145 (26.6%, -20.9%), Labour 56 (10.3%, -4.9%), UKIP 11 (2.0%, -10.2%). Independent gain from Conservative. [Greens did not stand]

Harlow DC, Little Parndon & Hare Street: Labour 781 (62.2%, +7.9%), Conservative 394 (31.4%, +5.2%), UKIP 80 (6.4%, -13.1%).

Medway UA, Rochester West: Labour 1212 (47.5%, +25.7%), Conservative 1007 (39.5%, -2.8%), Liberal Democrats 119 (4.7%, +1.3%), Green 107 (4.2%, -5.4%), UKIP 104 (4.1%, -17.5%). Labour gain from Conservative. [TUSC did not stand]

Nottingham UA, Wollaton West: Labour 2193 (48.8%, +15.4%), Conservative 1950 (43.4%, +4.9%), Liberal Democrats 237 (5.3%, -1.3%), Green 72 (1.6%, -9.4%), Bus-Pass Elvis 41 (0.9%). Labour gain from Conservative. [UKIP did not stand]

Rutland UA, Oakham South East: No Description 300 (59.5%), Conservative 204 (40.5%, +1.7%). No Description gain from Conservative. [Independent and Liberal Democrats did not stand]

Tameside MBC, Droylsden East: Labour 986 (61.5%, +10.1%), Conservative 489 (30.5%, +21.4%), Green 98 (6.1%, +0.2%), Liberal Democrats 30 (1.9%). All changes are since 2016. [UKIP did not stand]

The Conservatives failed to defend any of the five seats they were defending last night, although their loss of Wollaton West in Nottingham was nearly inevitable anyway. Wollaton West is overall the most affluent ward in Nottingham which is why it was safely Conservative up until a by-election where a Labour councillor with an excellent personal vote won and managed to keep his seat in 2015 against all odds. There are also many teachers and middle-class public sector workers living in Wollaton West which helped Labour capture the seat, as Labour under Jeremy Corbyn is appealing very well to these voters. The most surprising and hardest-hitting Conservative loss was in Rochester West, since in Kent UKIP voters are more likely to help the Conservatives than Labour, contrary to what is happening elsewhere in Britain.

However, Labour in the same night ended up losing Farnworth to a residents' association that had only been formed last year, and indeed local associations have been making steady ground against Labour in many outer metropolitan areas. This will certainly bode well for the various residents' associations in Havering, London, among many others, with the next set of local elections now only eight weeks away.

The Liberal Democrats meanwhile achieved an astounding 36.2% swing in Northchurch, where a popular Conservative councillor had died and where the Conservative candidate came from the town of Tring. Villages have proven unwelcoming to non-local candidates at election time even more than towns which often accounts for the swings seen in recent local by-elections. They were however disappointed not to capture Petersfield Bell Hill despite pushing the Conservatives into third place, being beaten by an independent. The Greens suffered substantial losses in vote share except in Droyslden East, although this is due to their vote being squeezed in tight contests. This week, all the most substantial Green vote losses were in the wards gained by one party from another. On the other hand, the Green Party gained its 50th councillor in the West Midlands with the capture of a seat in Oswestry Town Council, where last year they had missed out on two divisions (West and South) by only 11 and 62 votes respectively.





Comments

  1. Peter Barnett9 March 2018 at 12:10

    Thanks for continuing these local election results reports. Very useful - keep up the good work.

    ReplyDelete

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