My analysis of by-elections from 22/3/18 and a note about social media reform
Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 22 March 2018 were as follows:
Aylesbury DC, Central & Walton: Liberal Democrats 551 (40.9%,+18.6%), Conservative 425 (31.5%, -2.5%), Labour 267 (19.8%, +2.1%), Green 61 (4.5%, -3.8%), Independent (Michael) 44 (3.3%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Bassetlaw DC, Worksop South East: Labour 1004 (77.3%, +23.3%), Conservative 197 (15.2%), Liberal Democrats 98 (7.5%). [UKIP, Greens, and Independents did not stand].
Cheshire East UA, Bunbury: Conservative 663 (53.3%, -16.9%), Liberal Democrats 342 (27.2%), Labour 178 (14.3%, -3.4%), Green 60 (4.8%, -7.2%).
Chiltern DC, Ridgeway: Conservative 268 (38.2%, +16.8%), Labour 230 (32.8%), Liberal Democrats 203 (29.0%, +11.7%). Conservative gain from Independent. [No Independent candidates]
Midlothian UA, Penicuik (1st preference votes): SNP (35.0%, -0.2%), Conservative (30.2%, +4.0%), Labour (27.6%, +2.0%), Green (7.2%, +1.6%). SNP gain from Labour at stage 3. [Liberal Democrats did not stand]
Staffordshire Moorlands, Leek West: Labour 487 (42.9%, +21.3%), Conservative 370 (32.6%, +0.9%), Liberal Democrats 218 (19.2%, +7.5%), Independent (Wales) 61 (5.4%). Labour gain from Conservative. [Moorlands Democratic Alliance and Greens did not stand]
Thurrock UA, Ockenden: Conservatives 697* (36.2%, +7.8%), Labour 696 (36.2%, +11.2%), Thurrock Independents 531 (27.6%). Conservative gain from UKIP [who did not stand]
*In this particular by-election, the Conservative and Labour candidates polled 696 votes each. A coin toss decided the outcome.
This week marks the first SNP gain in a Scottish local by-election in many months, and the absence of a Liberal Democrat candidate who would confer anti-nationalist tactical transfers in the final stages proved to be of considerable help to the SNP, with the Conservative and Labour votes divided rather evenly. It also helped the Scottish Greens, who are supportive of Scottish independence meaning their transfers are often pro-nationalist, but not always.
Meanwhile in England, the pattern was similar to that of a fortnight ago, where the Conservatives lost all of the five wards they were defending that week, but on a lesser scale. The village of Ockenden in Thurrock produced the most insightful result, where the Conservatives captured the seat from UKIP on the toss of a coin, and Thurrock will be one of the key councils to watch this year; the odds may no longer favour the Conservatives as much as first thought, however. The Thurrock Independents lack the stigma of the UKIP label, which gives them reasonable chances of retaining at least one or two seats they are defending under their new banner.
Labour performed surprisingly well in Leek West and the rural ward of Ridgeway, which are not normally likely to elect any Labour councillors; Leek leans Conservative like many small market towns, and Staffordshire is inexorably trending towards the Conservatives due to an increasing flight of middle-income commuters from Stoke-on-Trent and Birmingham to the towns dotting the county. They also managed a 62.1% majority in Worksop South East, benefitting heavily from the former UKIP vote which in places like Bassetlaw would otherwise be more helpful to the Conservatives. especially given Worksop's proximity to the cities of Sheffield and Lincoln. Worksop South East, however, being the poorest and most solidly Labour ward in Worksop, has not benefitted from this, especially with a large proportion of residents having no formal qualifications. Commuters by comparison tend to be educated to degree level or equivalent. The Liberal Democrats managed to improve their performance in all this week's local by-elections, with a predictable gain of Aylesbury Central & Walton from the Conservatives. However, they only finished third in the Ridgeway by-election behind Labour, a clear disappointment for them given their past support in the Chiltern district. The Greens were squeezed once again in both the local by-elections of this week that they contested, with their larger vote share loss being in Bunbury where they had stood in 2015 but where the Liberal Democrats did not. With neither independent candidate having any real following in their ward, they both finished last in Aylesbury Central & Walton and Leek West respectively.
Meanwhile, the misuse of Facebook users' data by Cambridge Analytics has raised questions about what to do with Facebook. What should certainly not happen is for social media platforms of any type to be taken under public ownership, as governments fundamentally cannot be trusted to misuse the scandal as an excuse for internet censorship. Better advice of what data is collected when users use social media sites (e.g. via apps), and stronger enforcement of data protection regulations regarding the internet, are what is needed.
Aylesbury DC, Central & Walton: Liberal Democrats 551 (40.9%,+18.6%), Conservative 425 (31.5%, -2.5%), Labour 267 (19.8%, +2.1%), Green 61 (4.5%, -3.8%), Independent (Michael) 44 (3.3%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Bassetlaw DC, Worksop South East: Labour 1004 (77.3%, +23.3%), Conservative 197 (15.2%), Liberal Democrats 98 (7.5%). [UKIP, Greens, and Independents did not stand].
Cheshire East UA, Bunbury: Conservative 663 (53.3%, -16.9%), Liberal Democrats 342 (27.2%), Labour 178 (14.3%, -3.4%), Green 60 (4.8%, -7.2%).
Chiltern DC, Ridgeway: Conservative 268 (38.2%, +16.8%), Labour 230 (32.8%), Liberal Democrats 203 (29.0%, +11.7%). Conservative gain from Independent. [No Independent candidates]
Midlothian UA, Penicuik (1st preference votes): SNP (35.0%, -0.2%), Conservative (30.2%, +4.0%), Labour (27.6%, +2.0%), Green (7.2%, +1.6%). SNP gain from Labour at stage 3. [Liberal Democrats did not stand]
Staffordshire Moorlands, Leek West: Labour 487 (42.9%, +21.3%), Conservative 370 (32.6%, +0.9%), Liberal Democrats 218 (19.2%, +7.5%), Independent (Wales) 61 (5.4%). Labour gain from Conservative. [Moorlands Democratic Alliance and Greens did not stand]
Thurrock UA, Ockenden: Conservatives 697* (36.2%, +7.8%), Labour 696 (36.2%, +11.2%), Thurrock Independents 531 (27.6%). Conservative gain from UKIP [who did not stand]
*In this particular by-election, the Conservative and Labour candidates polled 696 votes each. A coin toss decided the outcome.
This week marks the first SNP gain in a Scottish local by-election in many months, and the absence of a Liberal Democrat candidate who would confer anti-nationalist tactical transfers in the final stages proved to be of considerable help to the SNP, with the Conservative and Labour votes divided rather evenly. It also helped the Scottish Greens, who are supportive of Scottish independence meaning their transfers are often pro-nationalist, but not always.
Meanwhile in England, the pattern was similar to that of a fortnight ago, where the Conservatives lost all of the five wards they were defending that week, but on a lesser scale. The village of Ockenden in Thurrock produced the most insightful result, where the Conservatives captured the seat from UKIP on the toss of a coin, and Thurrock will be one of the key councils to watch this year; the odds may no longer favour the Conservatives as much as first thought, however. The Thurrock Independents lack the stigma of the UKIP label, which gives them reasonable chances of retaining at least one or two seats they are defending under their new banner.
Labour performed surprisingly well in Leek West and the rural ward of Ridgeway, which are not normally likely to elect any Labour councillors; Leek leans Conservative like many small market towns, and Staffordshire is inexorably trending towards the Conservatives due to an increasing flight of middle-income commuters from Stoke-on-Trent and Birmingham to the towns dotting the county. They also managed a 62.1% majority in Worksop South East, benefitting heavily from the former UKIP vote which in places like Bassetlaw would otherwise be more helpful to the Conservatives. especially given Worksop's proximity to the cities of Sheffield and Lincoln. Worksop South East, however, being the poorest and most solidly Labour ward in Worksop, has not benefitted from this, especially with a large proportion of residents having no formal qualifications. Commuters by comparison tend to be educated to degree level or equivalent. The Liberal Democrats managed to improve their performance in all this week's local by-elections, with a predictable gain of Aylesbury Central & Walton from the Conservatives. However, they only finished third in the Ridgeway by-election behind Labour, a clear disappointment for them given their past support in the Chiltern district. The Greens were squeezed once again in both the local by-elections of this week that they contested, with their larger vote share loss being in Bunbury where they had stood in 2015 but where the Liberal Democrats did not. With neither independent candidate having any real following in their ward, they both finished last in Aylesbury Central & Walton and Leek West respectively.
Meanwhile, the misuse of Facebook users' data by Cambridge Analytics has raised questions about what to do with Facebook. What should certainly not happen is for social media platforms of any type to be taken under public ownership, as governments fundamentally cannot be trusted to misuse the scandal as an excuse for internet censorship. Better advice of what data is collected when users use social media sites (e.g. via apps), and stronger enforcement of data protection regulations regarding the internet, are what is needed.
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