The Italian general election of 2018: Renzi ha respinto, ascendente euroscetticismo
The Italian general election of 2018, a three-cornered fight between the coalizione centrodestra (centre-right coalition, which also includes the right-wing regionalist party Lega Nord), the syncretic anti-corruption Five Star Movement, and the coalizione centrosinistra (centre-left coalition, led by incumbent Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi) ended with the hardline Nationalist Lega Nord and its leader, Matteo Salvini, leading the victorious centre-right coalition. However, it will be the Five Star Movement and its leader, Luigi di Maio, who will be forming the next Italian government, having achieved the most votes individually of the parties who contested the election (32.2%).
The Five Star movement had performed brilliantly for a newcomer in 2013, managing 25.6%, but topped even that without the charismatic Beppe Grillo at the helm (he cannot stand anyway under M5S' constitution due to a previous conviction for manslaughter; M5S' constitution requires their candidates not to have any criminal convictions and part of their platform involves banning any convicted criminal for running for political office in Italy). Its anti-corruption stance, as well as Euroscepticism, helped it achieve that record high, which gave it 221 seats and 112 senators, more than doubling its seat total in the Chamber of Deputies (the Italian lower legislative chamber).
Of the parties who passed the 3% threshold necessary for representation in the Italian Chamber Parties, Parti Democrati (PD) led by Matteo Renzi finished second with 18.7%. However, his coalition partners performed very badly on aggregate in the election: the liberal More Europe polled only 2.55%, Together (which includes Italy's Green Party, the Federation of Italian Greens) achieved 0.6%, the Popular Civic List achieved 0.54%, and a coalition of Tyrolean regionalists just 0.41%. This aggregate total of just 22.8% relegated Matteo's coalition to third place, and it is very unlikely the Five Star Movement will consider any coalition with the PD, especially give M5S' (wavering) Eurosceptic stance. In total, that coalition obtained only 112 seats and 57 senators (including two for the Tyrolean regional parties), losing more than 2/3 of its Chamber of Deputies seats and more than half its senators.
Lega Nord achieved 17.7% by expanding its regional appeal into a national one for Eurosceptic and often less affluent Italians tired of the current establishment and not wanting to see any return of the old order. Forza Italia managed only 13.9%, partly as it is still being led by the disgraced Silvio Berlusconi (who is in any case barred from political office in Italy until August 2019 due to his conviction for tax fraud). The other coalition partners, Brothers of Italy (a national conservative party) and Us with Italy (a liberal conservative party) achieved 4.35% and 1.3% respectively. In proportional seat terms, Lega Nord won 73, Forza Italia 59, and Brothers of Italy 19, and the centre-right coalition won the most seats overall of the three contenders with 260 deputies and 135 senators.
The only other political party in Italy to cross the 3% threshold was the social-democratic Free and Equal list, who won 14 list seats with 3.34% but no first past the post seats. In fact it failed to finish higher than fourth in any of Italy's single member constituencies, which are on average more than twice the size of parliamentary constituencies in the United Kingdom. Of the other parties which contested the election, only the hardline socialist Power to the People list achieved more than 1% (the communists polled much worse with 0.32% by comparison), and the neo-fascist Casa Pound was dealt a decisive rejection with only 0.94% of the vote, even though increased anti-EU sentiment normally boosts the support of extremist and neo-fascist parties like CasaPound (meaning House of Pound, after the poet Ezra Pound who was a noted supporter of fascism during the 1930s and 1940s); it must be said for posterity's sake if nothing else that their performance represents an increase of 0.8% compared to 2013. Their even more nationalist rival, Italy for the Italians, performed worse still with just 0.38% of the vote. The wooden spoon went to Italy at the Heart, which polled a derisory 574 votes across all Italy.
Italy has taken a sharp Eurosceptic turn in spite of overtly Eurosceptic parties being dealt significant defeats last year in many European nations, especially France and the Netherlands. In many countries this is due mainly to dissatisfaction with the Euro currency, which has been faring badly since the Great Recession started in 2008, and consequent interference from EU institutions. This year within Europe, the nations of Hungary, Latvia, Luxembourg, Slovenia, and Sweden all have general elections, and Hungary, Latvia, and Sweden are seeing rising support for Eurosceptic or anti-EU parties. And with negotiations over Britain's planned withdrawal from the EU still taking place, the EU will likely need to change its character, make substantial reforms, and change the way it interacts with nation states and the people of those nation states to counter growing Euroscepticism.
The Five Star movement had performed brilliantly for a newcomer in 2013, managing 25.6%, but topped even that without the charismatic Beppe Grillo at the helm (he cannot stand anyway under M5S' constitution due to a previous conviction for manslaughter; M5S' constitution requires their candidates not to have any criminal convictions and part of their platform involves banning any convicted criminal for running for political office in Italy). Its anti-corruption stance, as well as Euroscepticism, helped it achieve that record high, which gave it 221 seats and 112 senators, more than doubling its seat total in the Chamber of Deputies (the Italian lower legislative chamber).
Of the parties who passed the 3% threshold necessary for representation in the Italian Chamber Parties, Parti Democrati (PD) led by Matteo Renzi finished second with 18.7%. However, his coalition partners performed very badly on aggregate in the election: the liberal More Europe polled only 2.55%, Together (which includes Italy's Green Party, the Federation of Italian Greens) achieved 0.6%, the Popular Civic List achieved 0.54%, and a coalition of Tyrolean regionalists just 0.41%. This aggregate total of just 22.8% relegated Matteo's coalition to third place, and it is very unlikely the Five Star Movement will consider any coalition with the PD, especially give M5S' (wavering) Eurosceptic stance. In total, that coalition obtained only 112 seats and 57 senators (including two for the Tyrolean regional parties), losing more than 2/3 of its Chamber of Deputies seats and more than half its senators.
Lega Nord achieved 17.7% by expanding its regional appeal into a national one for Eurosceptic and often less affluent Italians tired of the current establishment and not wanting to see any return of the old order. Forza Italia managed only 13.9%, partly as it is still being led by the disgraced Silvio Berlusconi (who is in any case barred from political office in Italy until August 2019 due to his conviction for tax fraud). The other coalition partners, Brothers of Italy (a national conservative party) and Us with Italy (a liberal conservative party) achieved 4.35% and 1.3% respectively. In proportional seat terms, Lega Nord won 73, Forza Italia 59, and Brothers of Italy 19, and the centre-right coalition won the most seats overall of the three contenders with 260 deputies and 135 senators.
The only other political party in Italy to cross the 3% threshold was the social-democratic Free and Equal list, who won 14 list seats with 3.34% but no first past the post seats. In fact it failed to finish higher than fourth in any of Italy's single member constituencies, which are on average more than twice the size of parliamentary constituencies in the United Kingdom. Of the other parties which contested the election, only the hardline socialist Power to the People list achieved more than 1% (the communists polled much worse with 0.32% by comparison), and the neo-fascist Casa Pound was dealt a decisive rejection with only 0.94% of the vote, even though increased anti-EU sentiment normally boosts the support of extremist and neo-fascist parties like CasaPound (meaning House of Pound, after the poet Ezra Pound who was a noted supporter of fascism during the 1930s and 1940s); it must be said for posterity's sake if nothing else that their performance represents an increase of 0.8% compared to 2013. Their even more nationalist rival, Italy for the Italians, performed worse still with just 0.38% of the vote. The wooden spoon went to Italy at the Heart, which polled a derisory 574 votes across all Italy.
Italy has taken a sharp Eurosceptic turn in spite of overtly Eurosceptic parties being dealt significant defeats last year in many European nations, especially France and the Netherlands. In many countries this is due mainly to dissatisfaction with the Euro currency, which has been faring badly since the Great Recession started in 2008, and consequent interference from EU institutions. This year within Europe, the nations of Hungary, Latvia, Luxembourg, Slovenia, and Sweden all have general elections, and Hungary, Latvia, and Sweden are seeing rising support for Eurosceptic or anti-EU parties. And with negotiations over Britain's planned withdrawal from the EU still taking place, the EU will likely need to change its character, make substantial reforms, and change the way it interacts with nation states and the people of those nation states to counter growing Euroscepticism.
A fair analysis, but the threshold for winning proportional seats is 3% not 5% (which would have excluded both Brothers of Italy and Free and Equal).
ReplyDeleteI left the "5%" in by mistake and have amended it to say "3%", which I know to be the threshold for representation in the Italian Chamber of Deputies. It was a typing error.
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