My analysis of British local by-elections of 01/03/18

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 1 March 2018 were as follows:

Basingstoke & Deane BC, Kempshott: Conservative 686 (58.9%, -2.0%), Labour 366 (31.4%, +16.1%), Liberal Democrats 113 (9.7%, +2.4%). [Greens and UKIP did not stand]

Clackmannanshire UA, Clackmannanshire North (1st preference votes): SNP 769 (37.0%, -3.1%), Conservative 659 (31.7%, +7.7%), Labour 493 (23.7%, -2.9%), Liberal Democrats 84 (4.0%, -1.1%), Green 74 (3.6%, -0.2%). SNP elected at stage 5.

East Devon DC, Exmouth Town: Liberal Democrats 187 (28.2%, -2.8%), Independent Currier 176 (26.6%), Conservative 142 (21.5%, -3.6%), Labour 86 (13.0%, -7.7%), Green 71 (10.7%, -12.6%).

Solihull MBC, Blythe: Conservative 1252 (75.9%, +24.8%), Labour 224 (13.6%, +4.6%), Liberal Democrats 174 (10.5%). [Residents' Association and Greens did not stand].

Residents'/Ratepayers' Associations in Britain are almost always moderately conservative in political outlook, hence the large boost to the Conservative vote in Solihull where the Solihull and Meriden Residents' Association did not stand.

For a county that is generally very much on the nationalist side in Scotland, Clackmannanshire's by-election saw a 5.4% swing to the Conservatives, and indeed Clackmannanshire (via way of Ochil & South Perthshire) is represented by a Conservative MP due to the unionist swing in the South Perthshire part having been larger still in the 2017 general election. Unionist tactical voting is very much still in play in Scotland and Labour were pushed into third place in percentage terms (there were two Labour candidates in Clackmannanshire North in May 2017 but only one Conservative candidate) as a result.

It is the result in Exmouth that is the most surprising. Independent Daphne Currier missed out on winning the seat from the Liberal Democrats by 11 votes despite not being connected to the popular East Devon Alliance, supporters of notable independent politician Claire Wright; she also pushed the Conservatives into third place. The considerable Green vote was hit heavily by a squeeze between the Liberal Democrats and the Independent candidate, as was the Labour vote. As I have said before, small towns are producing the most surprising local by-election results.

The heavy snow across Britain caused turnouts to fall below 20% except in Clackmannanshire North; this is ironic given how so much travel disruption was caused in Scotland by the snow, even compared to the rest of England.


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