My analysis of British local by-elections from 08/02/18

Readers, the results of British local by-elections from 8 February 2018 were as follows:

Brighton & Hove UA, East Brighton: Labour 1889 (67.5%, +21.0%), Conservative 481 (17.2%, -5.3%), Green 316 (11.3%, -8.2%), Liberal Democrats 114 (4.1%, -3.8%).

East Staffordshire DC, Stretton: Conservative 764 (42.6%, -6.2%), Save Our Stretton 625 (34.7%), Labour 347 (19.3%, -2.0%), UKIP 47 (2.6%, -27.3%), Liberal Democrats 14 (0.8%). Changes are since 2015, not the 2017 by-election in this ward.

Eden DC, Hartside: Conservative 175 (52.9%, -3.9%), Independent (Castle-Clark) 98 (29.6%, -13.7%), Green 59 (17.5%).

Staffordshire CC, Codsall: Conservative 1274 (67.6%, -7.6%), Green 329 (17.4%, +6.7%), Labour 283 (15.0%, +0.8%).

South Staffordshire DC, Codsall South: Conservative 490 (78.8%), Labour 82 (13.2%), Green 50 (8.0%). [Conservatives elected unopposed in 2015 in this ward]

Weymouth & Portland BC, Tophill East: Conservative 362 (47.0%, +16.8%), Labour 354 (46.0%,+23.1%), Green 56 (7.0%, -5.6%). Conservative gain from Independent.

Weymouth & Portland BC, Tophill West: Conservative 511 (53.9%, +29.0%), Labour 356 (37.5%, +14.4%), Green 82 (8.6%,+1.8%).

Last night proved to be a night of relief for the Conservatives, and particularly disappointing night for Independents. Two well-respected Independents did not come close to making anticipated gains in Stretton and Hartside from the Conservatives, and the Conservatives did very well in most of the holds they made, as well as thwarting strong Labour efforts in Portland, Dorset. A good Green presence in Weymouth proved not to help them in Portland due to the marginality of both wards. However, the Green Party made up for this with their excellent showing in Eden, the most sparsely populated district in England, which regularly elects the highest proportion of unopposed councillors, and also by coming second in the Codsall division by-election in Staffordshire.

East Brighton's by-election proved to be Labour's only good point electorally of last night; the successful Labour candidate, Nancy Platts, had previously been very unlucky in politics. In 2010, she was famously the losing Labour candidate in Brighton Pavilion when Caroline Lucas became the first Green MP in British history. In 2015, she failed to capture Brighton Kemptown from the Conservatives despite Labour capturing Hove the same year (she just halved the already weak 2010 Conservative majority in Brighton Kemptown, which also includes Peacehaven just outside Brighton), which was an indirect consequence of Labour focusing too much effort and money on ousting Caroline Lucas (they failed badly, of course).











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