My analysis of by-elections from 15/2/18
Readers, the results of British local by-elections of 15 February 2018 were as follows:
Doncaster MBC, Armthorpe: Labour 1431 (75.4%, +35.0%), Independent (Williams) 466 (24.6%).[UKIP, Conservatives, and Greens did not stand]
East Northamptonshire DC, Higham Ferrers Lancaster: Conservative 611 (55.6%), Liberal Democrats 244 (22.2%), Labour 189 (17.2%), Green 33 (3.0%), UKIP 22 (2.0%). [Conservatives elected unopposed in 2015]
Epsom & Ewell BC, Ruxley: Residents' Association 398 (37.2%, -4.5%), Conservative 340 (31.8%, -2.2%), Labour 264 (24.7%, +9.9%), Liberal Democrats 67 (6.3%, -3.3%).
Falkirk UA, Bonnybridge & Larbert (1st preferences)14: SNP 1295 (38.6%, +4.9%), Conservative 1088 (32.4%, +8.1%), Labour 813 (24.2%, +8.5%), Green 124 (3.7%, -0.1%), UKIP 35 (1.0%). [No Independent candidates] SNP elected at stage 5.
Halton UA, Halton Castle: Labour 522 (70.3%, -5.5%), Darin Whyte (No Description, formerly TUSC) 133 (17.9%, +9.5%), Conservative 88 (11.8%). [UKIP did not stand]
Lancashire CC, Morecambe North: Conservative 1332 (49.0%, -14.2%), Liberal Democrats 809 (29.7%, +21.6%), Labour 580 (21.3%, -0.7%). [Greens did not stand]
Northamptonshire CC, Higham Ferrers: Conservative 1414 (56.6%, -3.5%), Labour 557 (22.3%, +3.5%), Liberal Democrats 336 (13.5%, +2.3%), UKIP 109 (4.4%, -5.5%), Green 81 (3.2%).
North East Derbyshire DC, Grassmoor: Labour 459 (48.9%,-10.3%), Conservative 368 (39.2%, +22.1%), Liberal Democrats 111 (11.8%).
North Norfolk DC, Worstead: Liberal Democrats 509 (72.7%, +39.4%), Conservative 118 (16.9%,-25.0%), Labour 73 (10.4%, -1.8%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Greens did not stand]
Teignbridge DC, Chudleigh: Liberal Democrats 575 (41.0%, +31.1%), Conservative 564 (40.3%, +14.6%), Labour 262 (18.7%, +7.0%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Independent and Green candidates did not stand]
Teignbridge DC, Dawlish Central & North East: Liberal Democrats 1287 (70.6%, +52.4%), Conservative 535 (29.4%, +5.6%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Independents, Labour and Greens did not stand]
Tendring DC, St Paul's: Conservative 378 (39.5%, +6.7%), Independent (Andrews) 160 (16.7%), Independent (Hones) 134 (14.0%), Labour 114 (11.9%), Liberal Democrats 79 (8.3%), UKIP 71 (7.4%, -29.6%), Green 20 (2.1%). Conservative gain from UKIP.
West Oxfordshire DC, Carterton South: Conservative 388 (62.9%, +1.4%), Liberal Democrats 146 (23.7%, +17.7%), Labour 83 (13.5%, +2.0%). [UKIP and Greens did not stand]
York UA, Holgate: Labour 1521 (50.0%, +22.6%), Liberal Democrats 982 (32.3%, +19.5%), Conservative 334 (11.0%, -8.0%), Green 203 (6.7%, -9.3%).[Independent and TUSC did not stand]
It was a rare "Super Thursday" of British local by-elections, 14 in all. The Liberal Democrats gained the most from last night, although since several of the by-elections took place in areas highly contested by the Liberal Democrats this is not surprising. However, they also achieved good performances in the other by-elections they did not win, with the exception of Epsom & Ewell's by-election in Ruxley. The Liberal Democrats' poor result there is due to increased Labour activity in Epsom & Ewell, normally very safely Conservative at parliamentary level and in the safe hands of its Residents Association at local level since 1937.
The extraordinary swing of 32.2% in Worstead is worthy of mention, due to the fact that the general election votes which aided a Conservative gain of that ward in 2015 were not present for the by-election, and how it reflects the level of competition in districts with a strong Liberal Democrat presence, which partly accounts for similar Lib Dem gains in Teignbridge.
Grassmoor's 16.2% swing from Labour to the Conservatives is not a surprise result but more a reflection of demographic changes in former mining areas of Derbyshire, boosted by the Conservatives' capture of the constituency of North East Derbyshire last year (although not all of the district of North East Derbyshire is in the constituency, and the constituency named North East Derbyshire contains several Chesterfield wards). Surprisingly, an absence of UKIP and Conservative candidates in Doncaster did not help the anti-corruption Independent, Martin Williams (he stood in Doncaster North in 2001 achieving 9.3% of the vote), who was beaten by Labour by a margin of over 3 to 1.
UKIP, expected to lose the St Paul's by-election in Tendring, crashed to sixth place and behind the Liberal Democrats, marking another low point in their by-election history. Much of their vote went to two competing Independents, but the Conservatives emerged victorious in the divided contest. Meanwhile, the Greens' poor result in Holgate ward, York, was down to a Liberal Democrat resurgence and a Labour recovery (the 2011-15 Labour council became very unpopular and as a result York was the site of five of only a handful of Lib Dem gains recorded in local elections that year)-this will not bode well for them if similar results to those seen in the Holgate by-election are repeated in London this year, or for that matter in Norwich and/or Oxford.
Doncaster MBC, Armthorpe: Labour 1431 (75.4%, +35.0%), Independent (Williams) 466 (24.6%).[UKIP, Conservatives, and Greens did not stand]
East Northamptonshire DC, Higham Ferrers Lancaster: Conservative 611 (55.6%), Liberal Democrats 244 (22.2%), Labour 189 (17.2%), Green 33 (3.0%), UKIP 22 (2.0%). [Conservatives elected unopposed in 2015]
Epsom & Ewell BC, Ruxley: Residents' Association 398 (37.2%, -4.5%), Conservative 340 (31.8%, -2.2%), Labour 264 (24.7%, +9.9%), Liberal Democrats 67 (6.3%, -3.3%).
Falkirk UA, Bonnybridge & Larbert (1st preferences)14: SNP 1295 (38.6%, +4.9%), Conservative 1088 (32.4%, +8.1%), Labour 813 (24.2%, +8.5%), Green 124 (3.7%, -0.1%), UKIP 35 (1.0%). [No Independent candidates] SNP elected at stage 5.
Halton UA, Halton Castle: Labour 522 (70.3%, -5.5%), Darin Whyte (No Description, formerly TUSC) 133 (17.9%, +9.5%), Conservative 88 (11.8%). [UKIP did not stand]
Lancashire CC, Morecambe North: Conservative 1332 (49.0%, -14.2%), Liberal Democrats 809 (29.7%, +21.6%), Labour 580 (21.3%, -0.7%). [Greens did not stand]
Northamptonshire CC, Higham Ferrers: Conservative 1414 (56.6%, -3.5%), Labour 557 (22.3%, +3.5%), Liberal Democrats 336 (13.5%, +2.3%), UKIP 109 (4.4%, -5.5%), Green 81 (3.2%).
North East Derbyshire DC, Grassmoor: Labour 459 (48.9%,-10.3%), Conservative 368 (39.2%, +22.1%), Liberal Democrats 111 (11.8%).
North Norfolk DC, Worstead: Liberal Democrats 509 (72.7%, +39.4%), Conservative 118 (16.9%,-25.0%), Labour 73 (10.4%, -1.8%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Greens did not stand]
Teignbridge DC, Chudleigh: Liberal Democrats 575 (41.0%, +31.1%), Conservative 564 (40.3%, +14.6%), Labour 262 (18.7%, +7.0%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Independent and Green candidates did not stand]
Teignbridge DC, Dawlish Central & North East: Liberal Democrats 1287 (70.6%, +52.4%), Conservative 535 (29.4%, +5.6%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Independents, Labour and Greens did not stand]
Tendring DC, St Paul's: Conservative 378 (39.5%, +6.7%), Independent (Andrews) 160 (16.7%), Independent (Hones) 134 (14.0%), Labour 114 (11.9%), Liberal Democrats 79 (8.3%), UKIP 71 (7.4%, -29.6%), Green 20 (2.1%). Conservative gain from UKIP.
West Oxfordshire DC, Carterton South: Conservative 388 (62.9%, +1.4%), Liberal Democrats 146 (23.7%, +17.7%), Labour 83 (13.5%, +2.0%). [UKIP and Greens did not stand]
York UA, Holgate: Labour 1521 (50.0%, +22.6%), Liberal Democrats 982 (32.3%, +19.5%), Conservative 334 (11.0%, -8.0%), Green 203 (6.7%, -9.3%).[Independent and TUSC did not stand]
It was a rare "Super Thursday" of British local by-elections, 14 in all. The Liberal Democrats gained the most from last night, although since several of the by-elections took place in areas highly contested by the Liberal Democrats this is not surprising. However, they also achieved good performances in the other by-elections they did not win, with the exception of Epsom & Ewell's by-election in Ruxley. The Liberal Democrats' poor result there is due to increased Labour activity in Epsom & Ewell, normally very safely Conservative at parliamentary level and in the safe hands of its Residents Association at local level since 1937.
The extraordinary swing of 32.2% in Worstead is worthy of mention, due to the fact that the general election votes which aided a Conservative gain of that ward in 2015 were not present for the by-election, and how it reflects the level of competition in districts with a strong Liberal Democrat presence, which partly accounts for similar Lib Dem gains in Teignbridge.
Grassmoor's 16.2% swing from Labour to the Conservatives is not a surprise result but more a reflection of demographic changes in former mining areas of Derbyshire, boosted by the Conservatives' capture of the constituency of North East Derbyshire last year (although not all of the district of North East Derbyshire is in the constituency, and the constituency named North East Derbyshire contains several Chesterfield wards). Surprisingly, an absence of UKIP and Conservative candidates in Doncaster did not help the anti-corruption Independent, Martin Williams (he stood in Doncaster North in 2001 achieving 9.3% of the vote), who was beaten by Labour by a margin of over 3 to 1.
UKIP, expected to lose the St Paul's by-election in Tendring, crashed to sixth place and behind the Liberal Democrats, marking another low point in their by-election history. Much of their vote went to two competing Independents, but the Conservatives emerged victorious in the divided contest. Meanwhile, the Greens' poor result in Holgate ward, York, was down to a Liberal Democrat resurgence and a Labour recovery (the 2011-15 Labour council became very unpopular and as a result York was the site of five of only a handful of Lib Dem gains recorded in local elections that year)-this will not bode well for them if similar results to those seen in the Holgate by-election are repeated in London this year, or for that matter in Norwich and/or Oxford.
Comments
Post a Comment