My analysis of the Alyn & Deeside by-election and the Costa Rican general election of 2018
Readers, the results of the Alyn & Deeside Welsh Assembly by-election were as follows:
Sarah Atherton, Conservative, 4,722 (25.4%, +4.4%)
Carrie Harper, Plaid Cymru, 1,059 (5.7%, -3.3%)
Donna Lalek, Liberal Democrats, 1,176 (6.3%, +1.8%)
Duncan Rees, Green Party, 359 (1.9%, -0.5%)
Jack Sargeant, Labour, 11,267 (60.7, +14.9%)
Early reports claimed the result might be close, but the eventual result was a decisive win for Labour's Jack Sargeant, son of Carl Sargeant whose suicide last year prompted this by-election. UKIP's absence proved more helpful to Labour than the Conservatives, especially in a traditional working-class constituency like Alyn & Deeside. Alyn & Deeside also has a large proportion of English-born residents, relatively few native Welsh speakers, and a lot of the people living here commute to Chester or Liverpool. UKIP also agreed to stand aside if Jack Sargeant was selected, which he was, and UKIP stuck by this. The Conservatives had obtained considerable benefit from UKIP's collapse in the general election in Alyn & Deeside last year, but this time the Conservatives did not even recover the vote share they lost in 2016. Despite the fact that this constituency frequently has the lowest turnout in Welsh Assembly elections partly due to demographics and being safe for Labour, turnout only dropped to 29% from 35.3%, meaning it was not as bad as people feared it would be. The Liberal Democrats overtaking Plaid Cymru and recovering their deposit (which they had lost in this Welsh Assembly constituency in 2016) is the only other point of interest for this by-election.
Two days before that, Costa Rica held its 2018 general election which turned out to be far more interesting. The meteoric rise of the nationalist right National Restoration Party, which in the last election won only one seat in the Costa Rican Congress; to add insult to injury, its 2014 presidential candidate, Carlos Avendano, polled a derisory 1.35% of the votes cast. This time, however, Gerardo Alvarado Munoz finished first in the first round (Costa Rica uses a runoff system for its presidential elections, just like France) with 24.91% of the vote, beating Carlos Alvarado of the Christian socialist Citizens Action Party who polled 21.66%. The social-democratic and centrist National Liberation Party, meanwhile, managed only third place in the Presidential election despite finishing with the most seats in the Congress, losing only one of the 18 they won in 2014. The National Restoration Party won an extra 13 seats by comparison, giving them 14 and pushing Citizens' Action into third in the Congress, since they managed to win only 10 seats, losing 3.
It was the left-wing and progressive Broad Front, however, that came off worst in this Costa Rican election. Plagued by several scandals, including the resignation of Ronal Vargas after being accused of sexual harassment and allegations of domestic violence against two deputies, the Broad Front was reduced to 1 seat once again and its presidential candidate, Edgardo Araya, polled 0.79% of the vote, although this was better than they managed in 2010. Had Jose Florez-Estrada run again, their results would likely have been much better as he was the driving force behind their breakthrough in 2014 where he managed 13.1% of the vote. The Christian Democratic Social Christian Republican Party and the "liberal conservative" National Integration Party both entered the Costa Rican Congress with 2 and 4 seats respectively, but it was a bad time for minor parties in general, especially progressive parties. The pro-disability rights group Accessibility Without Exclusion lost its only Congress seat, and three smaller conservative Costa Rican parties, the Libertarian Movement, the Costa Rican Renewal Party, and the Christian Democratic Alliance also lost the seats they had won in 2014.
The sharp swing to more socially conservative politics in Costa Rica happened here for a variety of reasons. A corruption scandal involving large numbers of political figures damaged support for the main parties and led to an initial surge in support for Jose Diego Castro, who once polled as high as 51% in presidential polls for Costa Rica. In the end he polled only 9.52% running under the National Integration Party banner; the main reasons for the sharp slump in support were his controversial calls for the complete removal of prohibitions on gold mining and oil exploration in Costa Rica, despite the fact that both of these are dangerous, environmentally harmful, and responsible for extensive water and land pollution; another was a strong divide in support for same-sex marriage and LGBTIQA+ rights leading to a surge in support for Gerardo on the Christian conservative side and for Carlos on the progressive, younger side of the divide. In that context Jose, who had campaigned on very different issues, was unable to make the decisive breakthrough that he hoped for. The second round is likely to be close but it is leaning Gerardo's way at present.
Sarah Atherton, Conservative, 4,722 (25.4%, +4.4%)
Carrie Harper, Plaid Cymru, 1,059 (5.7%, -3.3%)
Donna Lalek, Liberal Democrats, 1,176 (6.3%, +1.8%)
Duncan Rees, Green Party, 359 (1.9%, -0.5%)
Jack Sargeant, Labour, 11,267 (60.7, +14.9%)
Early reports claimed the result might be close, but the eventual result was a decisive win for Labour's Jack Sargeant, son of Carl Sargeant whose suicide last year prompted this by-election. UKIP's absence proved more helpful to Labour than the Conservatives, especially in a traditional working-class constituency like Alyn & Deeside. Alyn & Deeside also has a large proportion of English-born residents, relatively few native Welsh speakers, and a lot of the people living here commute to Chester or Liverpool. UKIP also agreed to stand aside if Jack Sargeant was selected, which he was, and UKIP stuck by this. The Conservatives had obtained considerable benefit from UKIP's collapse in the general election in Alyn & Deeside last year, but this time the Conservatives did not even recover the vote share they lost in 2016. Despite the fact that this constituency frequently has the lowest turnout in Welsh Assembly elections partly due to demographics and being safe for Labour, turnout only dropped to 29% from 35.3%, meaning it was not as bad as people feared it would be. The Liberal Democrats overtaking Plaid Cymru and recovering their deposit (which they had lost in this Welsh Assembly constituency in 2016) is the only other point of interest for this by-election.
Two days before that, Costa Rica held its 2018 general election which turned out to be far more interesting. The meteoric rise of the nationalist right National Restoration Party, which in the last election won only one seat in the Costa Rican Congress; to add insult to injury, its 2014 presidential candidate, Carlos Avendano, polled a derisory 1.35% of the votes cast. This time, however, Gerardo Alvarado Munoz finished first in the first round (Costa Rica uses a runoff system for its presidential elections, just like France) with 24.91% of the vote, beating Carlos Alvarado of the Christian socialist Citizens Action Party who polled 21.66%. The social-democratic and centrist National Liberation Party, meanwhile, managed only third place in the Presidential election despite finishing with the most seats in the Congress, losing only one of the 18 they won in 2014. The National Restoration Party won an extra 13 seats by comparison, giving them 14 and pushing Citizens' Action into third in the Congress, since they managed to win only 10 seats, losing 3.
It was the left-wing and progressive Broad Front, however, that came off worst in this Costa Rican election. Plagued by several scandals, including the resignation of Ronal Vargas after being accused of sexual harassment and allegations of domestic violence against two deputies, the Broad Front was reduced to 1 seat once again and its presidential candidate, Edgardo Araya, polled 0.79% of the vote, although this was better than they managed in 2010. Had Jose Florez-Estrada run again, their results would likely have been much better as he was the driving force behind their breakthrough in 2014 where he managed 13.1% of the vote. The Christian Democratic Social Christian Republican Party and the "liberal conservative" National Integration Party both entered the Costa Rican Congress with 2 and 4 seats respectively, but it was a bad time for minor parties in general, especially progressive parties. The pro-disability rights group Accessibility Without Exclusion lost its only Congress seat, and three smaller conservative Costa Rican parties, the Libertarian Movement, the Costa Rican Renewal Party, and the Christian Democratic Alliance also lost the seats they had won in 2014.
The sharp swing to more socially conservative politics in Costa Rica happened here for a variety of reasons. A corruption scandal involving large numbers of political figures damaged support for the main parties and led to an initial surge in support for Jose Diego Castro, who once polled as high as 51% in presidential polls for Costa Rica. In the end he polled only 9.52% running under the National Integration Party banner; the main reasons for the sharp slump in support were his controversial calls for the complete removal of prohibitions on gold mining and oil exploration in Costa Rica, despite the fact that both of these are dangerous, environmentally harmful, and responsible for extensive water and land pollution; another was a strong divide in support for same-sex marriage and LGBTIQA+ rights leading to a surge in support for Gerardo on the Christian conservative side and for Carlos on the progressive, younger side of the divide. In that context Jose, who had campaigned on very different issues, was unable to make the decisive breakthrough that he hoped for. The second round is likely to be close but it is leaning Gerardo's way at present.
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