British local elections of 2018: Alan's Watch List, part 2
Welcome to part 2 of my watch list for the British local elections of 2018, this time covering districts. Several of them have all seats up for election this year, and four of these-Harrogate, Huntingdonshire, Newcastle-under-Lyme and South Cambridgeshire-will be holding full council elections henceforth and not revert to election by thirds.
With some exceptions, by thirds elections make capturing control of one council from a party or group more difficult and time consuming. They also make elections more expensive to administer, which is why many councils have switched to full council elections in recent years. The majority of countries with democratic local elections always hold full council elections.
UNITARY AUTHORITIES:
Derby: Labour only hold control of Derby City Council by one seat, but in the current political climate the chances of Labour making a net loss of seats are remote at best. Labour will almost certainly recapture both Alvaston and Derwent wards from UKIP and there is no realistic chance of them losing any others (the near-miss in Chaddesden ward was in 2015 where tying in local elections with the general election frequently favoured the Conservatives). The Liberal Democrats meanwhile only stand to make gains from the Conservatives, if they make any at all in Derby. Prediction: Labour hold.
Milton Keynes: A key bellwether authority at general election time, but the latest boundaries, adopted in 2014, have indirectly made it harder for the authority to change control. Some wards are marginal, but not enough for any party to take full control this year-however, if Labour loses any of the three Bletchley wards (East, Park, West) to the Conservatives as a result of UKIP's collapse, the Conservatives will likely seize the opportunity to wrest minority control. On the other hand, if the Conservatives lose Tattenhoe, Labour's minority administration will be strengthened, and the Conservatives may have a hard time defending against renewed Liberal Democrat efforts in the north of Milton Keynes. Prediction: No overall control hold-too close to call as to who largest party will be.
Peterborough: Due to the way in which by thirds elections work after boundary changes in a UK council, it will be Labour who stands the most to lose in Peterborough this year, and the Conservatives are anxious to regain overall control. A considerable number of three-member wards in Peterborough ended up split in 2016, and the Conservatives stand to lose their seats in the wards of Park and Hampton Vale. The Conservatives may be able to counter this with gains from Labour in split wards whose Labour councillors are up for election this year, and a lack of UKIP candidates will prove helpful in this regard. Prediction: Conservative gain from no overall control.
Plymouth: The northern and more working-class part of Plymouth (Moor View) is trending towards the Conservatives, but the southern, more middle-class part of Plymouth (covering Sutton & Devonport) is trending towards Labour. Three of the 30-strong Conservative group on Plymouth council defected from UKIP, and each of them had captured their seat from Labour. Labour only needs to gain two seats to gain control of Plymouth, but Labour is vulnerable in the south-west of Plymouth closest to the Royal Navy base. A critical test for Jeremy Corbyn once again. How the former UKIP vote falls decides the outcome. Prediction: Too close to call.
Portsmouth: Another coastal city where every gain or loss will count this year. It is under minority Conservative control but the Conservatives only need to capture 2 more seats to gain control, but Labour made a surprising and excellent gain of Portsmouth South last year in spite of Liberal Democrat organisation still going strong locally. With Mike Hancock a distant memory, the Liberal Democrats stand to recoup what they lost in 2014-and they lost five seats in 2014. However, Labour may be able to forestall any Lib Dem recapture particularly in the southern wards. Prediction: No overall control hold-Liberal Democrats become largest party.
Thurrock: As I recently posted, all 17 UKIP councillors left to form an independent group, but will they be able to save any of their seats? In all likelihood, no. Both the Conservatives and Labour stand to recover a lot of lost ground but the authority will remain as marginal as ever. At present, the Conservatives stand to gain the most out of UKIP's losses but Labour is not without chances by any means. Prediction: Conservative gain from no overall control.
BOROUGH AND DISTRICT COUNCILS
Adur: Shoreham-by-Sea, the main town in Adur district, has been increasingly populated by young professionals and bohemians priced out of Brighton & Hove (the same goes for its next door neighbour, Worthing), which has caused substantial Labour gains and has managed to turn the formerly blue-chip constituency of Worthing East & Shoreham into a key marginal for the next general election. The Liberal Democrat contingent, meanwhile, has completely disappeared. Older UKIP-friendly voters in Shoreham and Southwick, however, will likely save the Conservative administration even in the face of a middle-class Labour tide, which will not be able to capture every ward in Adur. Prediction: Conservative hold-but watch out for surprises.
Amber Valley: Always marginal and tightly contested, but this could be the scene of significant Labour losses compared to 2014. Former mining areas are trending towards the Conservatives as commuters move in, illustrated here last year when Nigel Mills' 2015 majority over Labour nearly doubled. This is probably Labour's last real chance to recapture Amber Valley council as a result of demographic trends and UKIP no longer able to keep the Conservatives in check-at the moment, this district looks very good for the Conservatives. Prediction: Conservative hold.
Cannock Chase: Labour must tread carefully here-Cannock Chase is undergoing similar political trends to Amber Valley, and Staffordshire as a whole has swung considerably to the Conservatives. Labour are defending six seats in Cannock Chase this year and need to lose only two to lose overall control of the council-and if the result of 2017 in the Cannock Chase constituency is reflected in local elections, that is exactly what will happen. UKIP's fall has been helping Labour more than the Conservatives overall in recent years but former coalfields like Cannock Chase are a big exception to this rule. Prediction: Labour lose to no overall control.
Harrogate: Harrogate is having full council elections this year and is also switching entirely to single-member wards. There will also only be 40 councillors elected instead of 54; given that Harrogate benefits most from this arrangement, this gives the Conservatives a good chance to go wrong and lose their apparently secure hold of this district to the Liberal Democrats. The Lib Dem recovery in Harrogate will almost certainly be limited to Harrogate itself, though, and only 18 of the new wards will be in Harrogate itself-the Lib Dems cannot win all of them either. Prediction: Conservative hold.
Newcastle-under-Lyme: This council is also having full council elections and it is a key battleground between the Conservatives and Labour. This council also gained notoriety last year when it was discovered that administrative errors could have affected the result of the general election there, which resulted in a hold by Labour's Paul Farrelly, albeit by only 30 votes over the Conservatives' Owen Meredith. A borough independents group has been gathering strength in this town, and they alone could decide the overall outcome of this election. Newcastle-under-Lyme has been sharply trending towards the Conservatives much like its "bigger brother",Stoke-on-Trent, but the student population of Keele University can save it for Labour even in the face of this trend. Prediction: Too close to call.
South Lakeland: Due to the restructuring that occurred in the boundary changes, all the new wards will have 3 members, irrespective of whether they are rural or urban in nature. Like Harrogate once did, South Lakeland's elections rotated between towns and villages, which will not occur in future elections for South Lakeland District Council. Full council elections in councils normally electing by thirds provide excellent chances for competent or well liked candidates to sneak through the net and win the last seat in a 3-member ward, as Peterborough proved in 2016. This could be enough to cause the Liberal Democrats to lose control of one of their most reliable strongholds, especially with Tim Farron no longer in the picture. However, the Liberal Democrat majorities in Kendal in particular are very large indeed and they campaign hard. Prediction: Liberal Democrat hold.
Worcester: The Green Party holds the balance of power in Worcester-but only one Conservative gain in Worcester is needed for the Conservatives to take overall control. Labour only need to capture two seats from the Conservatives, but because the majority of Conservative wards in Worcester are safely Conservative, it is very unlikely Labour can achieve this. Most Labour-held wards in Worcester are safe for Labour as well, but Cathedral ward is a key exception. However, the outcome is by no means certain, for the disappearing UKIP vote will largely favour Labour here. Prediction: No overall control hold.
With some exceptions, by thirds elections make capturing control of one council from a party or group more difficult and time consuming. They also make elections more expensive to administer, which is why many councils have switched to full council elections in recent years. The majority of countries with democratic local elections always hold full council elections.
UNITARY AUTHORITIES:
Derby: Labour only hold control of Derby City Council by one seat, but in the current political climate the chances of Labour making a net loss of seats are remote at best. Labour will almost certainly recapture both Alvaston and Derwent wards from UKIP and there is no realistic chance of them losing any others (the near-miss in Chaddesden ward was in 2015 where tying in local elections with the general election frequently favoured the Conservatives). The Liberal Democrats meanwhile only stand to make gains from the Conservatives, if they make any at all in Derby. Prediction: Labour hold.
Milton Keynes: A key bellwether authority at general election time, but the latest boundaries, adopted in 2014, have indirectly made it harder for the authority to change control. Some wards are marginal, but not enough for any party to take full control this year-however, if Labour loses any of the three Bletchley wards (East, Park, West) to the Conservatives as a result of UKIP's collapse, the Conservatives will likely seize the opportunity to wrest minority control. On the other hand, if the Conservatives lose Tattenhoe, Labour's minority administration will be strengthened, and the Conservatives may have a hard time defending against renewed Liberal Democrat efforts in the north of Milton Keynes. Prediction: No overall control hold-too close to call as to who largest party will be.
Peterborough: Due to the way in which by thirds elections work after boundary changes in a UK council, it will be Labour who stands the most to lose in Peterborough this year, and the Conservatives are anxious to regain overall control. A considerable number of three-member wards in Peterborough ended up split in 2016, and the Conservatives stand to lose their seats in the wards of Park and Hampton Vale. The Conservatives may be able to counter this with gains from Labour in split wards whose Labour councillors are up for election this year, and a lack of UKIP candidates will prove helpful in this regard. Prediction: Conservative gain from no overall control.
Plymouth: The northern and more working-class part of Plymouth (Moor View) is trending towards the Conservatives, but the southern, more middle-class part of Plymouth (covering Sutton & Devonport) is trending towards Labour. Three of the 30-strong Conservative group on Plymouth council defected from UKIP, and each of them had captured their seat from Labour. Labour only needs to gain two seats to gain control of Plymouth, but Labour is vulnerable in the south-west of Plymouth closest to the Royal Navy base. A critical test for Jeremy Corbyn once again. How the former UKIP vote falls decides the outcome. Prediction: Too close to call.
Portsmouth: Another coastal city where every gain or loss will count this year. It is under minority Conservative control but the Conservatives only need to capture 2 more seats to gain control, but Labour made a surprising and excellent gain of Portsmouth South last year in spite of Liberal Democrat organisation still going strong locally. With Mike Hancock a distant memory, the Liberal Democrats stand to recoup what they lost in 2014-and they lost five seats in 2014. However, Labour may be able to forestall any Lib Dem recapture particularly in the southern wards. Prediction: No overall control hold-Liberal Democrats become largest party.
Thurrock: As I recently posted, all 17 UKIP councillors left to form an independent group, but will they be able to save any of their seats? In all likelihood, no. Both the Conservatives and Labour stand to recover a lot of lost ground but the authority will remain as marginal as ever. At present, the Conservatives stand to gain the most out of UKIP's losses but Labour is not without chances by any means. Prediction: Conservative gain from no overall control.
BOROUGH AND DISTRICT COUNCILS
Adur: Shoreham-by-Sea, the main town in Adur district, has been increasingly populated by young professionals and bohemians priced out of Brighton & Hove (the same goes for its next door neighbour, Worthing), which has caused substantial Labour gains and has managed to turn the formerly blue-chip constituency of Worthing East & Shoreham into a key marginal for the next general election. The Liberal Democrat contingent, meanwhile, has completely disappeared. Older UKIP-friendly voters in Shoreham and Southwick, however, will likely save the Conservative administration even in the face of a middle-class Labour tide, which will not be able to capture every ward in Adur. Prediction: Conservative hold-but watch out for surprises.
Amber Valley: Always marginal and tightly contested, but this could be the scene of significant Labour losses compared to 2014. Former mining areas are trending towards the Conservatives as commuters move in, illustrated here last year when Nigel Mills' 2015 majority over Labour nearly doubled. This is probably Labour's last real chance to recapture Amber Valley council as a result of demographic trends and UKIP no longer able to keep the Conservatives in check-at the moment, this district looks very good for the Conservatives. Prediction: Conservative hold.
Cannock Chase: Labour must tread carefully here-Cannock Chase is undergoing similar political trends to Amber Valley, and Staffordshire as a whole has swung considerably to the Conservatives. Labour are defending six seats in Cannock Chase this year and need to lose only two to lose overall control of the council-and if the result of 2017 in the Cannock Chase constituency is reflected in local elections, that is exactly what will happen. UKIP's fall has been helping Labour more than the Conservatives overall in recent years but former coalfields like Cannock Chase are a big exception to this rule. Prediction: Labour lose to no overall control.
Harrogate: Harrogate is having full council elections this year and is also switching entirely to single-member wards. There will also only be 40 councillors elected instead of 54; given that Harrogate benefits most from this arrangement, this gives the Conservatives a good chance to go wrong and lose their apparently secure hold of this district to the Liberal Democrats. The Lib Dem recovery in Harrogate will almost certainly be limited to Harrogate itself, though, and only 18 of the new wards will be in Harrogate itself-the Lib Dems cannot win all of them either. Prediction: Conservative hold.
Newcastle-under-Lyme: This council is also having full council elections and it is a key battleground between the Conservatives and Labour. This council also gained notoriety last year when it was discovered that administrative errors could have affected the result of the general election there, which resulted in a hold by Labour's Paul Farrelly, albeit by only 30 votes over the Conservatives' Owen Meredith. A borough independents group has been gathering strength in this town, and they alone could decide the overall outcome of this election. Newcastle-under-Lyme has been sharply trending towards the Conservatives much like its "bigger brother",Stoke-on-Trent, but the student population of Keele University can save it for Labour even in the face of this trend. Prediction: Too close to call.
South Lakeland: Due to the restructuring that occurred in the boundary changes, all the new wards will have 3 members, irrespective of whether they are rural or urban in nature. Like Harrogate once did, South Lakeland's elections rotated between towns and villages, which will not occur in future elections for South Lakeland District Council. Full council elections in councils normally electing by thirds provide excellent chances for competent or well liked candidates to sneak through the net and win the last seat in a 3-member ward, as Peterborough proved in 2016. This could be enough to cause the Liberal Democrats to lose control of one of their most reliable strongholds, especially with Tim Farron no longer in the picture. However, the Liberal Democrat majorities in Kendal in particular are very large indeed and they campaign hard. Prediction: Liberal Democrat hold.
Worcester: The Green Party holds the balance of power in Worcester-but only one Conservative gain in Worcester is needed for the Conservatives to take overall control. Labour only need to capture two seats from the Conservatives, but because the majority of Conservative wards in Worcester are safely Conservative, it is very unlikely Labour can achieve this. Most Labour-held wards in Worcester are safe for Labour as well, but Cathedral ward is a key exception. However, the outcome is by no means certain, for the disappearing UKIP vote will largely favour Labour here. Prediction: No overall control hold.
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