My analysis of by-elections from 22/2/18
Readers, the results of the 11 British local by-elections which took place yesterday were as follows:
Arun DC, Marine: Liberal Democrats 309 (32.7%), Labour 252 (26.7%, +7.3%), Conservative 242 (25.7%, -0.6%), Independent 141 (14.9%). Liberal Democrat gain from Independent [UKIP did not stand].
Boston DC, Old Leake & Wrangle: Conservative 536 (74.2%, +21.3%), Labour 123 (17.0%), UKIP 50 (6.9%, -40.1%), Blue Revolution 13 (1.8%).
Chichester DC, Fishbourne: Liberal Democrats 459 (54.6%, +3.3%), Conservative 294 (35.0%, -2.5%), Labour 88 (10.4%). [Greens did not stand]
Dorset CC, Bridport: Conservative 1660 (39.6%, +2.5%), Liberal Democrats 1451 (34.6%,-3.7%), Labour 691 (16.5%, +4.4%), Green 388 (9.3%,-3.2%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats.
Hertfordshire CC, Goffs Oak & Bury Green: Conservative 1390 (59.6%,-5.5%), Liberal Democrats 482 (20.7%, +14.8%), Labour 383 (16.8%, -0.8%), Green 69 (3.0%). [UKIP did not stand]
Lichfield DC, Stowe: Conservative 513 (44.8%, -9.0%), Labour 299 (26.1%, -0.9%),Liberal Democrats 217 (19.0%), Something New 59 (5.2%), Green 56 (4.9%, -14.3%).
North Kesteven DC, Eagle, Swinderby & Witham St Hughs: Conservative 563 (57.8%), Lincolnshire Independents 347 (35.6%), Liberal Democrats 34 (6.6%). Conservative gain from Independent [Uncontested in 2015].
Scottish Borders UA, Selkirkshire South (1st preference votes): Conservative 1247 (35.7%), Independent Penman 1040 (29.7%), SNP 691 (19.8%), Independent Gunn 219 (6.3%), Labour 134 (3.8%), Liberal Democrats 95 (2.7%), Green 70 (2.0%). Independent gain from Conservative at stage 7.
Torfaen DC, Trevethin: Labour 233 (50.9%), Independent Parker 141 (30.8%), Independent Wildgust 69 (15.1%), Green 15 (3.2%).
West Dorset DC, Bridport North: Conservative 600 (36.0%, +5.0%), Liberal Democrats 500 (30.0%,-9.1%), Labour 383 (23.0%, +9.8%), Green 184 (11.0%, -5.7%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats.
West Somerset DC, Minehead South: Liberal Democrats 316 (43.2%), Conservative 291 (39.8%, +3.2%), Labour 125 (17.0%, +1.3%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Independent and Green candidates did not stand]
A very wide variety of rural and market town (cathedral city in the cases of Chichester and Lichfield) by-elections this week, which in the current political climate have the potential to provide the biggest surprises. Metropolitan and London local by-elections have become rather predictable lately.
The departing Liberal Democrat councillor in Dorset, Ros Kayes, had a very strong personal vote as shown by the 2017 county council results in particular. It is therefore not surprising the Conservatives gained both the county council seat and district council seat in Bridport, although the fact the Green vote dropped is surprising given how promising Dorset is for them in the long term (and not just in Weymouth, either). The Liberal Democrats made up for this by achieving a surprise win in the coastal town of Minehead (one of the weaker places for the Liberal Democrats in Somerset, traditionally strong for the Liberal Democrats) and in Bognor Regis due to the Independent candidate splitting the Conservative vote and former supporters of the resigning Independent councillor opting for the Liberal Democrats to counter the Conservatives. There was a surprising 10.2% swing to the Lib Dems in Goffs Oak & Bury Green, located in the least Lib Dem friendly borough in Hertfordshire, Broxbourne (Broxbourne was the only constituency in Hertfordshire where UKIP finished second in 2015, and it produced the worst Liberal Democrat result in 2015 and again in 2017).
With the recent ousting of their former leader Henry Bolton, UKIP were nowhere to be seen this week except in their former stronghold of Boston, where they lost 85% of their 2015 vote in Old Leake & Wrangle, prompting the Conservative majority to rocket there. Independents had varying degrees of success, although only one Independent managed to win this week due to nationalist transfers. Even in the Scottish borders, a very unionist area indeed, there is some significant support for Scottish nationalism. Other Independents were not so lucky, especially in Torfaen and Lincolnshire where despite decent performances they could not muster up enough localist support against dominant parties (Labour and Conservative respectively).
It proved to be a poor night for the Greens, even in Bridport where they had the best chance of at least becoming a challenger in future. To further disprove any theory by the left that the Greens split the Labour vote in any way overall, the largest fall in the Green vote came in Lichfield where they had stood in 2015 but the Liberal Democrats, who fielded a candidate in the by-election, did not. The fact that Something New, a minor syncretic party with no fixed policies, finished slightly ahead of the Green Party is related to the profile of Something New's candidate in Lichfield.
Arun DC, Marine: Liberal Democrats 309 (32.7%), Labour 252 (26.7%, +7.3%), Conservative 242 (25.7%, -0.6%), Independent 141 (14.9%). Liberal Democrat gain from Independent [UKIP did not stand].
Boston DC, Old Leake & Wrangle: Conservative 536 (74.2%, +21.3%), Labour 123 (17.0%), UKIP 50 (6.9%, -40.1%), Blue Revolution 13 (1.8%).
Chichester DC, Fishbourne: Liberal Democrats 459 (54.6%, +3.3%), Conservative 294 (35.0%, -2.5%), Labour 88 (10.4%). [Greens did not stand]
Dorset CC, Bridport: Conservative 1660 (39.6%, +2.5%), Liberal Democrats 1451 (34.6%,-3.7%), Labour 691 (16.5%, +4.4%), Green 388 (9.3%,-3.2%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats.
Hertfordshire CC, Goffs Oak & Bury Green: Conservative 1390 (59.6%,-5.5%), Liberal Democrats 482 (20.7%, +14.8%), Labour 383 (16.8%, -0.8%), Green 69 (3.0%). [UKIP did not stand]
Lichfield DC, Stowe: Conservative 513 (44.8%, -9.0%), Labour 299 (26.1%, -0.9%),Liberal Democrats 217 (19.0%), Something New 59 (5.2%), Green 56 (4.9%, -14.3%).
North Kesteven DC, Eagle, Swinderby & Witham St Hughs: Conservative 563 (57.8%), Lincolnshire Independents 347 (35.6%), Liberal Democrats 34 (6.6%). Conservative gain from Independent [Uncontested in 2015].
Scottish Borders UA, Selkirkshire South (1st preference votes): Conservative 1247 (35.7%), Independent Penman 1040 (29.7%), SNP 691 (19.8%), Independent Gunn 219 (6.3%), Labour 134 (3.8%), Liberal Democrats 95 (2.7%), Green 70 (2.0%). Independent gain from Conservative at stage 7.
Torfaen DC, Trevethin: Labour 233 (50.9%), Independent Parker 141 (30.8%), Independent Wildgust 69 (15.1%), Green 15 (3.2%).
West Dorset DC, Bridport North: Conservative 600 (36.0%, +5.0%), Liberal Democrats 500 (30.0%,-9.1%), Labour 383 (23.0%, +9.8%), Green 184 (11.0%, -5.7%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrats.
West Somerset DC, Minehead South: Liberal Democrats 316 (43.2%), Conservative 291 (39.8%, +3.2%), Labour 125 (17.0%, +1.3%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative. [Independent and Green candidates did not stand]
A very wide variety of rural and market town (cathedral city in the cases of Chichester and Lichfield) by-elections this week, which in the current political climate have the potential to provide the biggest surprises. Metropolitan and London local by-elections have become rather predictable lately.
The departing Liberal Democrat councillor in Dorset, Ros Kayes, had a very strong personal vote as shown by the 2017 county council results in particular. It is therefore not surprising the Conservatives gained both the county council seat and district council seat in Bridport, although the fact the Green vote dropped is surprising given how promising Dorset is for them in the long term (and not just in Weymouth, either). The Liberal Democrats made up for this by achieving a surprise win in the coastal town of Minehead (one of the weaker places for the Liberal Democrats in Somerset, traditionally strong for the Liberal Democrats) and in Bognor Regis due to the Independent candidate splitting the Conservative vote and former supporters of the resigning Independent councillor opting for the Liberal Democrats to counter the Conservatives. There was a surprising 10.2% swing to the Lib Dems in Goffs Oak & Bury Green, located in the least Lib Dem friendly borough in Hertfordshire, Broxbourne (Broxbourne was the only constituency in Hertfordshire where UKIP finished second in 2015, and it produced the worst Liberal Democrat result in 2015 and again in 2017).
With the recent ousting of their former leader Henry Bolton, UKIP were nowhere to be seen this week except in their former stronghold of Boston, where they lost 85% of their 2015 vote in Old Leake & Wrangle, prompting the Conservative majority to rocket there. Independents had varying degrees of success, although only one Independent managed to win this week due to nationalist transfers. Even in the Scottish borders, a very unionist area indeed, there is some significant support for Scottish nationalism. Other Independents were not so lucky, especially in Torfaen and Lincolnshire where despite decent performances they could not muster up enough localist support against dominant parties (Labour and Conservative respectively).
It proved to be a poor night for the Greens, even in Bridport where they had the best chance of at least becoming a challenger in future. To further disprove any theory by the left that the Greens split the Labour vote in any way overall, the largest fall in the Green vote came in Lichfield where they had stood in 2015 but the Liberal Democrats, who fielded a candidate in the by-election, did not. The fact that Something New, a minor syncretic party with no fixed policies, finished slightly ahead of the Green Party is related to the profile of Something New's candidate in Lichfield.
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