British local elections of 2018: Alan's Watch List, part 1
We are now less than three months away from the British local elections of 2018, featuring all London Boroughs, the first Sheffield City Region Mayoral election, and elsewhere in England. A large proportion of those councils holding elections this year have undergone extensive boundary changes.
With UKIP in terminal decline, the rise of Corbynism and Momentum in Labour, demographic changes becoming more cemented, and the shadow of Brexit looming even in local elections, elections in many councils will become a turning point in their history, which in some cases will mean crossing the Rubicon.
So what is on Alan's watch list this year?
GREATER LONDON WATCH LIST
Barnet: The Conservatives only hold control of this borough by one seat, and Labour only needs to win two seats to gain overall control of Barnet for the very first time. The two split wards of Brunswick Park and Hale are ripe pickings for Labour in a borough trending towards Labour (had Labour not been dogged by anti-Semitism accusations, they would have captured at least one of the Barnet constituencies last year), as is the former Liberal Democrat stronghold of Child's Hill. However, moderate Labour voters unfriendly to reports of Momentum infiltration of Labour groups may turn to the Liberal Democrats, and they will be a factor in Barnet. Prediction: Narrow Labour gain from Conservative.
Haringey: Haringey has so far featured heavily in stories of Momentum deselections of moderate Labour councillors, especially in relation to the controversial HDV (Haringey Development Vehicle) project, which involves selling of council property to HDV who want to redevelop estates. According to those opposed to the HDV scheme (http://stophdv.com/) the real aim of the project is gentrification much like that of which inner London has succumbed to. This project was also not in any manifesto during the last elections and residents have been left out of the process. Potentially, several moderate councillors may stand as independents against more hardline Labour councillors, causing unexpected Liberal Democrat gains (and possibly even Green gains in Alexandra ward). Prediction: Labour hold, but watch out for surprises.
Havering: In the last Havering elections, UKIP topped the poll but only won 7 seats; this was however enough to deprive the Conservatives of overall control of the borough and Labour were reduced to a solitary councillor-Keith Darvill (Labour MP for Upminster from 1997 to 2001)- as a direct result of UKIP's campaign in 2014. UKIP will be lucky to retain even one councillor in Havering, and a large proportion of their vote will transfer to the many Residents' Associations that dot Havering. However, the Conservatives did benefit strongly from UKIP's collapse in each Havering constituency (including Dagenham & Rainham, partly in Barking & Dagenham) in 2017, meaning this London borough is one of only a handful where they can reap a net reward. Prediction: Too close to call.
Kensington & Chelsea: This borough contained the site of the infamous Grenfell Tower fire, which caused 71 deaths and an equal number of injuries on 14 June 2017. Some have speculated that this event, combined with an anti-Brexit backlash that caused a Labour gain of Kensington (and a sharply reduced Conservative majority in otherwise ultra-safe Chelsea & Fulham), may potentially cause the Conservatives to lose overall control of Kensington & Chelsea. The flaw in this theory is that so many Conservative wards in Kensington & Chelsea have towering Conservative majorities, extraordinary levels of wealth which will not be affected by Brexit, and low turnouts, meaning they will not swing hard enough to cause Labour gains. There are only two marginal wards in this borough-Earl's Court and St Helens. Most of those switching to the Liberal Democrats here in 2017 were professionals who had built up wealth, not old-money Conservatives who will stay Conservative no matter what. Prediction: Conservative hold.
Kingston-upon-Thames: Notably gained by the Conservatives from the Liberal Democrats in 2014, but the Liberal Democrats are recovering well in South West London. Also, the Conservative leader of Kingston council, Kevin Davis, has been embroiled in a row about conflicts of interest, where he was recently accused of insulting a sixth-form student who questioned him on Twitter. The majority of wards in this borough are marginal, with only three exceptions: Coombe, Coombe Vale, and Kevin's ward of Old Malden. Prediction: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Lambeth: Redevelopments and gentrification in Lambeth could cause the only Labour losses in Inner London (the old County of London area) this year, and the Green Party has been campaigning hard on this issue (and many others). However, Labour hold 59 seats out of 63 in Lambeth and most Labour-held wards in Lambeth are safe, although Lambeth is known for bucking the trend at election time depending on council performance (it was the only London Borough Council Labour lost control of in 1994, and they captured it from no overall control in 2006 when they were losing seats in so many other London boroughs that same year). Prediction: Labour hold.
Richmond-upon-Thames: The Conservatives control this borough securely at present, holding 39 seats out of 54 to the Liberal Democrats' total of just 15. However, the constituencies in this borough, Twickenham and Richmond Park, featured the largest swings from Conservative to Liberal Democrat in the country last year. If repeated at local level, especially if a local pact between the Liberal Democrats and the Greens takes place ( http://www.thisislocallondon.co.uk/news/15648726.Twickenham_and_Richmond_Liberal_Democrats_could_form_electoral_pact_with_Green_Party_for_next_year___s_local_elections/), a Liberal Democrat capture is almost certain. Prediction: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Wandsworth: Could Labour finally crack through and end the Conservative dominance in Wandsworth after 40 years? Maybe so, even with the sell-offs of the 1980s having cemented solid Conservative control of Wandsworth once and for all. Last year, Labour recaptured Battersea, the area of Wandsworth most affected by gentrification, on a swing of 10%. The swings to Labour in Tooting and Putney were larger still at 10.6% and 10.2% respectively, and local election swings are considerably larger than national swings. Moderate Conservatives in Putney could also switch to the Liberal Democrats, prompting unexpected Labour gains. On the other hand, Wandsworth still has one of the lowest council tax rates in Britain and this will work to the Conservatives' advantage once again-but will it be enough this year? Prediction: Too close to call.
METROPOLITAN BOROUGHS
Birmingham: Not only is Birmingham having full council elections this year, it will no longer hold elections by thirds. The radical boundary changes in Birmingham mean that there will only be 101 council seats and each ward will elect only one or two members. This means that some deselected candidates may stand as independents against officially selected candidates, and because the wards are smaller they will naturally become less safe. However, there are no signs of any Liberal Democrat or Conservative recovery that would stop Labour retaining overall control. Prediction: Labour hold.
Calderdale: A consistently marginal borough that has not yielded good results for Labour recently, but there are enough vulnerable Conservative wards for a Labour gain, although former UKIP voters are just as likely to vote Conservative as they are Labour in semi-urban places like this. The strides Labour made in the last general election, though, could carry on to the local elections this year, but it is by no means an easy task. Prediction: Labour gain from no overall control.
Dudley: Unlike many other metropolitan boroughs, Dudley is swinging to the Conservatives. In 2014, six of UKIP's seven gains were from the Conservatives and Labour lost overall control of the borough in 2016. UKIP will likely lose all seven of these seats and in the wards they did not capture in 2014, it could be enough to tilt them to the Conservatives. Economic promises made by Labour under Corbyn, though, can potentially bring out enough Labour voters to neutralise Conservative efforts, and only two Labour gains are needed. Prediction: Too close to call.
Kirklees: As in Dudley, only two Labour gains are needed to gain overall control. However, only a handful of wards not already held by Labour are competitive for them normally, and large swings are much harder in rural areas than in urban areas. The Liberal Democrats' performance, or lack thereof, will be key to the overall outcome of the 2018 Kirklees election. Prediction: No overall control hold.
Sheffield: Tree-felling in Sheffield has made the Labour council very unpopular, but Sheffield elects by thirds and only 18 Labour seats are up for election this year. The Green Party stand to make substantial gains from Labour but only in the centre of Sheffield. Furthermore, the considerable number of UKIP returnees to Labour in the outer reaches of Sheffield will counteract anti-Labour swings elsewhere. Prediction: Labour hold.
Stockport: The Liberal Democrats are recovering well amongst the suburban middle-class electorate of the south (Cheadle and Hazel Grove) but they will fall further behind in Stockport itself. Although neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats have a realistic chance of gaining overall control-it is just the way the borough is made-whichever one of them ends up with a plurality of the seats will be able to change the overall direction of Stockport. Can the Lib Dems recover enough suburban strength from the Conservatives outside London? Prediction: No overall control hold-Liberal Democrats become largest party.
Trafford: This is one of only two Metropolitan Boroughs where the Conservatives have overall control, and unlike Solihull, retention of control is not assured by any means. The Greens could potentially gain Altrincham, Timperley will likely be recaptured by the Liberal Democrats (in 2016 it was held very easily), and both Davyhulme wards are vulnerable to Labour. Labour does however need to gain six seats for overall control of Trafford, which is a lot to ask given how safely Conservative the parts of Trafford closest to Cheshire are and how well the Conservatives hold marginal wards against Labour's efforts. Prediction: Conservative lose to no overall control.
With UKIP in terminal decline, the rise of Corbynism and Momentum in Labour, demographic changes becoming more cemented, and the shadow of Brexit looming even in local elections, elections in many councils will become a turning point in their history, which in some cases will mean crossing the Rubicon.
So what is on Alan's watch list this year?
GREATER LONDON WATCH LIST
Barnet: The Conservatives only hold control of this borough by one seat, and Labour only needs to win two seats to gain overall control of Barnet for the very first time. The two split wards of Brunswick Park and Hale are ripe pickings for Labour in a borough trending towards Labour (had Labour not been dogged by anti-Semitism accusations, they would have captured at least one of the Barnet constituencies last year), as is the former Liberal Democrat stronghold of Child's Hill. However, moderate Labour voters unfriendly to reports of Momentum infiltration of Labour groups may turn to the Liberal Democrats, and they will be a factor in Barnet. Prediction: Narrow Labour gain from Conservative.
Haringey: Haringey has so far featured heavily in stories of Momentum deselections of moderate Labour councillors, especially in relation to the controversial HDV (Haringey Development Vehicle) project, which involves selling of council property to HDV who want to redevelop estates. According to those opposed to the HDV scheme (http://stophdv.com/) the real aim of the project is gentrification much like that of which inner London has succumbed to. This project was also not in any manifesto during the last elections and residents have been left out of the process. Potentially, several moderate councillors may stand as independents against more hardline Labour councillors, causing unexpected Liberal Democrat gains (and possibly even Green gains in Alexandra ward). Prediction: Labour hold, but watch out for surprises.
Havering: In the last Havering elections, UKIP topped the poll but only won 7 seats; this was however enough to deprive the Conservatives of overall control of the borough and Labour were reduced to a solitary councillor-Keith Darvill (Labour MP for Upminster from 1997 to 2001)- as a direct result of UKIP's campaign in 2014. UKIP will be lucky to retain even one councillor in Havering, and a large proportion of their vote will transfer to the many Residents' Associations that dot Havering. However, the Conservatives did benefit strongly from UKIP's collapse in each Havering constituency (including Dagenham & Rainham, partly in Barking & Dagenham) in 2017, meaning this London borough is one of only a handful where they can reap a net reward. Prediction: Too close to call.
Kensington & Chelsea: This borough contained the site of the infamous Grenfell Tower fire, which caused 71 deaths and an equal number of injuries on 14 June 2017. Some have speculated that this event, combined with an anti-Brexit backlash that caused a Labour gain of Kensington (and a sharply reduced Conservative majority in otherwise ultra-safe Chelsea & Fulham), may potentially cause the Conservatives to lose overall control of Kensington & Chelsea. The flaw in this theory is that so many Conservative wards in Kensington & Chelsea have towering Conservative majorities, extraordinary levels of wealth which will not be affected by Brexit, and low turnouts, meaning they will not swing hard enough to cause Labour gains. There are only two marginal wards in this borough-Earl's Court and St Helens. Most of those switching to the Liberal Democrats here in 2017 were professionals who had built up wealth, not old-money Conservatives who will stay Conservative no matter what. Prediction: Conservative hold.
Kingston-upon-Thames: Notably gained by the Conservatives from the Liberal Democrats in 2014, but the Liberal Democrats are recovering well in South West London. Also, the Conservative leader of Kingston council, Kevin Davis, has been embroiled in a row about conflicts of interest, where he was recently accused of insulting a sixth-form student who questioned him on Twitter. The majority of wards in this borough are marginal, with only three exceptions: Coombe, Coombe Vale, and Kevin's ward of Old Malden. Prediction: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Lambeth: Redevelopments and gentrification in Lambeth could cause the only Labour losses in Inner London (the old County of London area) this year, and the Green Party has been campaigning hard on this issue (and many others). However, Labour hold 59 seats out of 63 in Lambeth and most Labour-held wards in Lambeth are safe, although Lambeth is known for bucking the trend at election time depending on council performance (it was the only London Borough Council Labour lost control of in 1994, and they captured it from no overall control in 2006 when they were losing seats in so many other London boroughs that same year). Prediction: Labour hold.
Richmond-upon-Thames: The Conservatives control this borough securely at present, holding 39 seats out of 54 to the Liberal Democrats' total of just 15. However, the constituencies in this borough, Twickenham and Richmond Park, featured the largest swings from Conservative to Liberal Democrat in the country last year. If repeated at local level, especially if a local pact between the Liberal Democrats and the Greens takes place ( http://www.thisislocallondon.co.uk/news/15648726.Twickenham_and_Richmond_Liberal_Democrats_could_form_electoral_pact_with_Green_Party_for_next_year___s_local_elections/), a Liberal Democrat capture is almost certain. Prediction: Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Wandsworth: Could Labour finally crack through and end the Conservative dominance in Wandsworth after 40 years? Maybe so, even with the sell-offs of the 1980s having cemented solid Conservative control of Wandsworth once and for all. Last year, Labour recaptured Battersea, the area of Wandsworth most affected by gentrification, on a swing of 10%. The swings to Labour in Tooting and Putney were larger still at 10.6% and 10.2% respectively, and local election swings are considerably larger than national swings. Moderate Conservatives in Putney could also switch to the Liberal Democrats, prompting unexpected Labour gains. On the other hand, Wandsworth still has one of the lowest council tax rates in Britain and this will work to the Conservatives' advantage once again-but will it be enough this year? Prediction: Too close to call.
METROPOLITAN BOROUGHS
Birmingham: Not only is Birmingham having full council elections this year, it will no longer hold elections by thirds. The radical boundary changes in Birmingham mean that there will only be 101 council seats and each ward will elect only one or two members. This means that some deselected candidates may stand as independents against officially selected candidates, and because the wards are smaller they will naturally become less safe. However, there are no signs of any Liberal Democrat or Conservative recovery that would stop Labour retaining overall control. Prediction: Labour hold.
Calderdale: A consistently marginal borough that has not yielded good results for Labour recently, but there are enough vulnerable Conservative wards for a Labour gain, although former UKIP voters are just as likely to vote Conservative as they are Labour in semi-urban places like this. The strides Labour made in the last general election, though, could carry on to the local elections this year, but it is by no means an easy task. Prediction: Labour gain from no overall control.
Dudley: Unlike many other metropolitan boroughs, Dudley is swinging to the Conservatives. In 2014, six of UKIP's seven gains were from the Conservatives and Labour lost overall control of the borough in 2016. UKIP will likely lose all seven of these seats and in the wards they did not capture in 2014, it could be enough to tilt them to the Conservatives. Economic promises made by Labour under Corbyn, though, can potentially bring out enough Labour voters to neutralise Conservative efforts, and only two Labour gains are needed. Prediction: Too close to call.
Kirklees: As in Dudley, only two Labour gains are needed to gain overall control. However, only a handful of wards not already held by Labour are competitive for them normally, and large swings are much harder in rural areas than in urban areas. The Liberal Democrats' performance, or lack thereof, will be key to the overall outcome of the 2018 Kirklees election. Prediction: No overall control hold.
Sheffield: Tree-felling in Sheffield has made the Labour council very unpopular, but Sheffield elects by thirds and only 18 Labour seats are up for election this year. The Green Party stand to make substantial gains from Labour but only in the centre of Sheffield. Furthermore, the considerable number of UKIP returnees to Labour in the outer reaches of Sheffield will counteract anti-Labour swings elsewhere. Prediction: Labour hold.
Stockport: The Liberal Democrats are recovering well amongst the suburban middle-class electorate of the south (Cheadle and Hazel Grove) but they will fall further behind in Stockport itself. Although neither Labour nor the Liberal Democrats have a realistic chance of gaining overall control-it is just the way the borough is made-whichever one of them ends up with a plurality of the seats will be able to change the overall direction of Stockport. Can the Lib Dems recover enough suburban strength from the Conservatives outside London? Prediction: No overall control hold-Liberal Democrats become largest party.
Trafford: This is one of only two Metropolitan Boroughs where the Conservatives have overall control, and unlike Solihull, retention of control is not assured by any means. The Greens could potentially gain Altrincham, Timperley will likely be recaptured by the Liberal Democrats (in 2016 it was held very easily), and both Davyhulme wards are vulnerable to Labour. Labour does however need to gain six seats for overall control of Trafford, which is a lot to ask given how safely Conservative the parts of Trafford closest to Cheshire are and how well the Conservatives hold marginal wards against Labour's efforts. Prediction: Conservative lose to no overall control.
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