Norsk valg 2017: Sa Mange Skuffelser
The Norwegian general election of 2017 took place yesterday, and resulted in heaved sighs of relief by some, and humiliating disappointment by many. The title of my post means in Norwegian 'Norwegian election 2017: so many disappointments'.
It was particularly disappointing for the Norwegian Green Party (MDG) who were frequently predicted to exceed the 4% threshold in this election having made a critical breakthrough in 2013 when they obtained their best ever result by far and secured themselves a seat in Parliament. Their vote in fact only increased slightly, from 2.8% to 3.2%, which meant they only kept their solitary seat in the Norwegian capital, Oslo. Even in Oslo, though, they were beaten by the Red Party (Rodt) who won their first seat in the Storting, although they were also disappointed by their 2.4% vote share, especially when Labour (Arbeit)'s campaign had come unstuck to the point where they were sometimes finishing behind the Conservatives (Hoyre) in opinion polls. More so, several counties in Norway actually recorded a slight decrease in the Green vote, and none showed a Green increase above 1%.
All the governing parties of the right bloc, to which Prime Minister Erna Solberg (Hoyre) belongs, made some minor losses but nowhere near as many as the left bloc hoped. Hoyre only lost 3 seats, Progress 2, the Christian Democrats 2, and the Liberals just 1 seat, having come close to elimination from the Storting during the campaign. The Christian Democrats and the Liberals managed 4.3% and 4.2% respectively, just enough to retain those crucial levelling seats (in Norway, seats are allocated by county; the 19 levelling seats are there to ensure as much as possible that parties whose vote share exceeds 4% can achieve fair representation, as none of the Norwegian constituencies have more than 17 seats apiece and many have as few as 4 MPs). The decline in the Christian Democrats vote reflects as much the increasing secularisation of Scandinavian society as much as it does any backlash against the right bloc; it is a long term decline that could see them eliminated next time, and was also responsible for the minor Christian Party losing a considerable number of the few votes it had. By contrast, Labour's poor campaign and Jonas Gahr Store's poor debating resulted in them losing 6 seats, twice as many as the Conservatives lost even though neither Erna Solberg or Progress leader Siv Jensen are particularly popular.
The Socialist Left managed a recovery at Labour's expense, going from 7 seats to 11 and regaining stable footing in the Storting having come close to wipeout in 2013. It was the Centre Party, however, that shone during the election, increasing its seat total by 9 and making a large comeback in the northern counties far away from Oslo's gleaming lights. This has partly happened due to its move towards a more social-democratic base, which is not easy to find in rural areas anywhere, and also with protectionism becoming more of an issue in Norway. The right bloc have also alienated many more socially conservative, rural voters (Hoyre's base is mainly urban middle class; some districts of Oslo regularly give a Hoyre vote of 40% or more even in bad times, whereas a lot of rural counties usually give Hoyre votes of less than 20% ) that the Centre Party can win over.
The right bloc consists of the Conservatives, Progress, Christian Democrats and Liberals and the left bloc by comparison consists of Labour, Centre, and Socialist Left. The Greens are outside both blocs and rightly so, and the Reds have only just entered Parliament. Their only MP, Red leader Bjornar Moxnes, is not favourable towards Jonas Gahr Store either. Even though the Christian Democrats have chosen to return to opposition, it is likely that Erna Solberg will remain Prime Minister as even without KrF's support the right bloc has more seats than the left bloc (81 vs. 78; 79 if the Reds wish to join the left bloc).
It was particularly disappointing for the Norwegian Green Party (MDG) who were frequently predicted to exceed the 4% threshold in this election having made a critical breakthrough in 2013 when they obtained their best ever result by far and secured themselves a seat in Parliament. Their vote in fact only increased slightly, from 2.8% to 3.2%, which meant they only kept their solitary seat in the Norwegian capital, Oslo. Even in Oslo, though, they were beaten by the Red Party (Rodt) who won their first seat in the Storting, although they were also disappointed by their 2.4% vote share, especially when Labour (Arbeit)'s campaign had come unstuck to the point where they were sometimes finishing behind the Conservatives (Hoyre) in opinion polls. More so, several counties in Norway actually recorded a slight decrease in the Green vote, and none showed a Green increase above 1%.
All the governing parties of the right bloc, to which Prime Minister Erna Solberg (Hoyre) belongs, made some minor losses but nowhere near as many as the left bloc hoped. Hoyre only lost 3 seats, Progress 2, the Christian Democrats 2, and the Liberals just 1 seat, having come close to elimination from the Storting during the campaign. The Christian Democrats and the Liberals managed 4.3% and 4.2% respectively, just enough to retain those crucial levelling seats (in Norway, seats are allocated by county; the 19 levelling seats are there to ensure as much as possible that parties whose vote share exceeds 4% can achieve fair representation, as none of the Norwegian constituencies have more than 17 seats apiece and many have as few as 4 MPs). The decline in the Christian Democrats vote reflects as much the increasing secularisation of Scandinavian society as much as it does any backlash against the right bloc; it is a long term decline that could see them eliminated next time, and was also responsible for the minor Christian Party losing a considerable number of the few votes it had. By contrast, Labour's poor campaign and Jonas Gahr Store's poor debating resulted in them losing 6 seats, twice as many as the Conservatives lost even though neither Erna Solberg or Progress leader Siv Jensen are particularly popular.
The Socialist Left managed a recovery at Labour's expense, going from 7 seats to 11 and regaining stable footing in the Storting having come close to wipeout in 2013. It was the Centre Party, however, that shone during the election, increasing its seat total by 9 and making a large comeback in the northern counties far away from Oslo's gleaming lights. This has partly happened due to its move towards a more social-democratic base, which is not easy to find in rural areas anywhere, and also with protectionism becoming more of an issue in Norway. The right bloc have also alienated many more socially conservative, rural voters (Hoyre's base is mainly urban middle class; some districts of Oslo regularly give a Hoyre vote of 40% or more even in bad times, whereas a lot of rural counties usually give Hoyre votes of less than 20% ) that the Centre Party can win over.
The right bloc consists of the Conservatives, Progress, Christian Democrats and Liberals and the left bloc by comparison consists of Labour, Centre, and Socialist Left. The Greens are outside both blocs and rightly so, and the Reds have only just entered Parliament. Their only MP, Red leader Bjornar Moxnes, is not favourable towards Jonas Gahr Store either. Even though the Christian Democrats have chosen to return to opposition, it is likely that Erna Solberg will remain Prime Minister as even without KrF's support the right bloc has more seats than the left bloc (81 vs. 78; 79 if the Reds wish to join the left bloc).
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