German federal election 2017: Alternative Mein Lederhosen!
The German Bundestag election of 2017 has just produced the most multi-party Bundestag since 1949. Not only did AfD enter the Bundestag and finish third in the polls, but the FDP (Free Democratic Party) returned as well, meaning that there are now six different parties represented in the Bundestag.
In a similar way to UKIP, Alternative for Germany (AfD) hit both SPD (Social Democrat) and CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union) votes, especially in working-class areas, Bavaria, and Saxony (they did well in the other eastern states as well, of course). In fact, AfD did well enough to pick up 3 single-member seats (direktmandaten) in Saxony which even if they had not passed the 5% threshold would have qualified them for list seats as well. In Germany, a party that wins 3 constituency seats can win list seats even if they did not pass the 5% threshold (this hurt Die Linke particularly badly in 2002, since they fell below 5% and only won two direct mandates); AfD in any event achieved 12.6%, enough for as many as 94 seats, one more than the FDP won in 2009.
The effect of AfD's vote was to cause surprise SPD gains from the CDU despite the SPD's vote falling to 20.5%, the worst in its long history. CDU's vote fell sharply to 26.8%, its worst result ever, with a consequent loss of 65 seats even accounting for the large number of overhang seats needed in the next Bundestag to make sure all eligible parties are fairly represented; 709 seats are needed in total, making this Bundestag the largest ever. The CDU's Bavarian partners, the CSU, achieved their worst ever result but nevertheless retained every single direct mandate in Bavaria itself, whose particularly independent-minded character lent itself rather well to the AfD despite its prosperity.
Things were not boding well for the Greens in the run-up to this election, especially with the retirement of Hans-Christian Strobele, their only direct mandate representative. Some believed they had become too mainstream and had lost their way in terms of green politics. They managed to however increase their vote share to 9.0%, and Canan Bayran retained their sole direct mandate of Berlin Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg/Prenzlauer Berg Ost, although with a margin of only 1.6% against Die Linke (The Left). Despite their good governance of Baden-Wurttenberg, however, they narrowly failed to win either Stuttgart I (Stuttgart West-Central) or Freiburg (am Breisgau) from the CDU, the losing margin being 2.3% in each case. However, the Greens have nevertheless won themselves 4 extra seats for a total of 67, so they have performed very well in the circumstances, although a few states showed a small Green vote share decrease nevertheless.
Die Linke did reasonably well, given how hard AfD hit their core vote in the east (in fact, the AfD topped the list vote poll in Saxony, ironically the only state where Die Linke gained a direct mandate from the CDU, having retained all four in Berlin), although they only recaptured one of the direct mandates they had lost in 2013, namely Leipzig II (Leipzig South in practice). In the others they did not regain their vote fell quite sharply; in fact their vote share decreased in all the eastern states and they finished no better than third in any of these. They made only small increases in the western states, even in the capital, Berlin. Like many similar parties in Europe, their older core vote is dying off and their protest vote is being taken away by newcomers, AfD in Die Linke's case. Their gain of five seats for a total of 69 is therefore a good result for them, even if they slipped from third to fifth in terms of vote share.
As expected, the FDP returned having been ousted completely in 2013; their vote share is more evenly distributed than the other major parties in Germany which is why they have not been able to win any direct mandates since 1990, or even come close. They usually struggle to finish second on the list vote even in the wealthiest direct mandates. They won 80 seats in total, although they are undoubtedly disappointed to have come fourth instead of third. The FDP also need to be wary, since the SPD under Martin Schulz have announced they will not continue the grand coalition with Angela Merkel that ran from 2005-2009 and again from 2013-2017, and they are the only party represented in the Bundestag solely by list seats.
All other parties did badly in this election, with the NPD losing 2/3 of its vote, which was taken mostly by AfD, and the Pirate Party's vote splintered in different directions. They were both overtaken by the satirical Die PARTEI, which notably finished ahead of both the FDP and the Pirate Party in the Greens' sole constituency seat; Die PARTEI managed 1% of the vote overall, and only 10,130 votes behind the Free Voters (FREIE WAHLER, collections of residents' associations in Germany), who polled the best out of the parties which did not qualify for Bundestag representation. The Animal Welfare Party only managed 0.8% of the vote federally, but this was more than the aggregate totals of the NPD and PIRATEN vote (Tierschutzpartei managed 373,278 votes; the total NPD and PIRATEN vote equalled only 350,572). The Basic Income Party (BGE) only achieved 0.2% of the vote despite running in all German Lander, which was at least better than the hopeless and diehard communist Marxist-Leninist Party of Germany (MLPD) which also ran in every Lander but achieved less than 0.1% of the vote. The Party of Reason achieved the wooden spoon managing only 532 votes, partly because it only ran a list in Bavaria. The best performance by an independent candidate, meanwhile, was by former CSU MP Konrad Dippel in Weiden, Bavaria; he achieved 9.3% and finished third in the constituency vote in Weiden
Coalition building now becomes more difficult than ever in Germany at a federal level. The SPD is not willing to work with the CDU again, especially with the consequences it brought, and no other party will work with the AfD. The FDP will not agree to a Jamaica coalition for now either, meaning that Martin Schulz could theoretically succeed Angela Merkel as Chancellor by gathering the FDP, Linke, and Greens into a four-way coalition. Due to Die Linke's dislike of the 'soft' SPD, though, and the FDP's insuperable ideological difference to that of Die Linke, this would be impracticable.
In a similar way to UKIP, Alternative for Germany (AfD) hit both SPD (Social Democrat) and CDU/CSU (Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union) votes, especially in working-class areas, Bavaria, and Saxony (they did well in the other eastern states as well, of course). In fact, AfD did well enough to pick up 3 single-member seats (direktmandaten) in Saxony which even if they had not passed the 5% threshold would have qualified them for list seats as well. In Germany, a party that wins 3 constituency seats can win list seats even if they did not pass the 5% threshold (this hurt Die Linke particularly badly in 2002, since they fell below 5% and only won two direct mandates); AfD in any event achieved 12.6%, enough for as many as 94 seats, one more than the FDP won in 2009.
The effect of AfD's vote was to cause surprise SPD gains from the CDU despite the SPD's vote falling to 20.5%, the worst in its long history. CDU's vote fell sharply to 26.8%, its worst result ever, with a consequent loss of 65 seats even accounting for the large number of overhang seats needed in the next Bundestag to make sure all eligible parties are fairly represented; 709 seats are needed in total, making this Bundestag the largest ever. The CDU's Bavarian partners, the CSU, achieved their worst ever result but nevertheless retained every single direct mandate in Bavaria itself, whose particularly independent-minded character lent itself rather well to the AfD despite its prosperity.
Things were not boding well for the Greens in the run-up to this election, especially with the retirement of Hans-Christian Strobele, their only direct mandate representative. Some believed they had become too mainstream and had lost their way in terms of green politics. They managed to however increase their vote share to 9.0%, and Canan Bayran retained their sole direct mandate of Berlin Friedrichshain-Kreuzberg/Prenzlauer Berg Ost, although with a margin of only 1.6% against Die Linke (The Left). Despite their good governance of Baden-Wurttenberg, however, they narrowly failed to win either Stuttgart I (Stuttgart West-Central) or Freiburg (am Breisgau) from the CDU, the losing margin being 2.3% in each case. However, the Greens have nevertheless won themselves 4 extra seats for a total of 67, so they have performed very well in the circumstances, although a few states showed a small Green vote share decrease nevertheless.
Die Linke did reasonably well, given how hard AfD hit their core vote in the east (in fact, the AfD topped the list vote poll in Saxony, ironically the only state where Die Linke gained a direct mandate from the CDU, having retained all four in Berlin), although they only recaptured one of the direct mandates they had lost in 2013, namely Leipzig II (Leipzig South in practice). In the others they did not regain their vote fell quite sharply; in fact their vote share decreased in all the eastern states and they finished no better than third in any of these. They made only small increases in the western states, even in the capital, Berlin. Like many similar parties in Europe, their older core vote is dying off and their protest vote is being taken away by newcomers, AfD in Die Linke's case. Their gain of five seats for a total of 69 is therefore a good result for them, even if they slipped from third to fifth in terms of vote share.
As expected, the FDP returned having been ousted completely in 2013; their vote share is more evenly distributed than the other major parties in Germany which is why they have not been able to win any direct mandates since 1990, or even come close. They usually struggle to finish second on the list vote even in the wealthiest direct mandates. They won 80 seats in total, although they are undoubtedly disappointed to have come fourth instead of third. The FDP also need to be wary, since the SPD under Martin Schulz have announced they will not continue the grand coalition with Angela Merkel that ran from 2005-2009 and again from 2013-2017, and they are the only party represented in the Bundestag solely by list seats.
All other parties did badly in this election, with the NPD losing 2/3 of its vote, which was taken mostly by AfD, and the Pirate Party's vote splintered in different directions. They were both overtaken by the satirical Die PARTEI, which notably finished ahead of both the FDP and the Pirate Party in the Greens' sole constituency seat; Die PARTEI managed 1% of the vote overall, and only 10,130 votes behind the Free Voters (FREIE WAHLER, collections of residents' associations in Germany), who polled the best out of the parties which did not qualify for Bundestag representation. The Animal Welfare Party only managed 0.8% of the vote federally, but this was more than the aggregate totals of the NPD and PIRATEN vote (Tierschutzpartei managed 373,278 votes; the total NPD and PIRATEN vote equalled only 350,572). The Basic Income Party (BGE) only achieved 0.2% of the vote despite running in all German Lander, which was at least better than the hopeless and diehard communist Marxist-Leninist Party of Germany (MLPD) which also ran in every Lander but achieved less than 0.1% of the vote. The Party of Reason achieved the wooden spoon managing only 532 votes, partly because it only ran a list in Bavaria. The best performance by an independent candidate, meanwhile, was by former CSU MP Konrad Dippel in Weiden, Bavaria; he achieved 9.3% and finished third in the constituency vote in Weiden
Coalition building now becomes more difficult than ever in Germany at a federal level. The SPD is not willing to work with the CDU again, especially with the consequences it brought, and no other party will work with the AfD. The FDP will not agree to a Jamaica coalition for now either, meaning that Martin Schulz could theoretically succeed Angela Merkel as Chancellor by gathering the FDP, Linke, and Greens into a four-way coalition. Due to Die Linke's dislike of the 'soft' SPD, though, and the FDP's insuperable ideological difference to that of Die Linke, this would be impracticable.
Greens are a force to be reckoned with in Germany :-). May I suggest some insight into their Proportional Representation would be good? Perhaps a pie chart, some pictorial way to show how the excess / wasted votes (without PR) where pooled to return additional politicians?
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