My analysis of this week's by-elections (week ending 01/09/17)
Readers, the results of this week's local by-elections are as follows:
Scarborough BC, Mulgrave: Conservative 395 (46.5%, +12.2%), Labour 299 (35.2%, +18.4%), Independent Armsby 118 (13.9%, -3.4%), Yorkshire Party 37 (4.4%).
North Somerset UA, Weston-Super-Mare North Worle: Labour 589 (36.4%, +21.4%), Conservative 525 (32.4%, +6.1%), Liberal Democrats 265 (16.4%, +3.7%), Independent 132 (8.2%), UKIP 108 (6.7%, -15.2%). Labour gain from Conservative.
As I mentioned earlier in the blog post 'The road to Downing Street now runs by the seaside': https://greensocialistalan.blogspot.co.uk/2017/08/the-road-to-downing-street-now-runs-by.html, the coast is now a key proving ground for Labour and the Conservatives, and both this week's by-elections were in seaside resorts that were once solidly Conservative territory. Weston-Super-Mare managed 73 years of Conservative representation with 1992 being the only time before 1997 when the Conservative position was threatened, and Scarborough (& Whitby) managed 79 years of continuous Conservative representation from 1918 to 1997 with the Conservative majority always being greater than 10% during this time. In 2015, following the Liberal Democrats' collapse in Weston-Super-Mare and Labour making only limited progress in Scarborough & Whitby, it appeared both would revert to being safe Conservative seats once more. This illusion was sharply torn earlier this year, when Labour came within remotely viable distance of Weston-Super-Mare at long last and turned Scarborough & Whitby back into a marginal seat.
Labour performed very well in these key areas, by sharply reducing the Conservative majority in the Mulgrave by-election despite UKIP's absence helping the Conservatives (the Yorkshire Party made no real impact on the result), and by capturing the North Worle ward of Weston-Super-Mare (consisting mainly of newer housing built to accommodate the town's expanding population) which had previously been held by a local organisation called North Somerset First, who the late councillor Derek Mead led before his death caused this by-election. Given that North Worle has never been Labour-held and consists mainly of commuters to the city of Bristol, this is an excellent result for them and a clear example of the importance of re-selecting good candidates.
North Somerset First has since deregistered, and its absence should have naturally been helpful to the Conservatives since most of these local groups tend to lean towards small 'c' conservatism. This however proved not to be the case and it reflects the level of distrust in the Conservative Party at present, and especially Theresa May's agenda. Nor did North Somerset First's absence do much to help any of the other three candidates; the Liberal Democrats' recovery was limited in a ward they once held comfortably. The local picture matters less in wards consisting primarily of commuters whose main activities are outside the ward or with highly transient populations (especially students) compared to the national picture.
Scarborough BC, Mulgrave: Conservative 395 (46.5%, +12.2%), Labour 299 (35.2%, +18.4%), Independent Armsby 118 (13.9%, -3.4%), Yorkshire Party 37 (4.4%).
North Somerset UA, Weston-Super-Mare North Worle: Labour 589 (36.4%, +21.4%), Conservative 525 (32.4%, +6.1%), Liberal Democrats 265 (16.4%, +3.7%), Independent 132 (8.2%), UKIP 108 (6.7%, -15.2%). Labour gain from Conservative.
As I mentioned earlier in the blog post 'The road to Downing Street now runs by the seaside': https://greensocialistalan.blogspot.co.uk/2017/08/the-road-to-downing-street-now-runs-by.html, the coast is now a key proving ground for Labour and the Conservatives, and both this week's by-elections were in seaside resorts that were once solidly Conservative territory. Weston-Super-Mare managed 73 years of Conservative representation with 1992 being the only time before 1997 when the Conservative position was threatened, and Scarborough (& Whitby) managed 79 years of continuous Conservative representation from 1918 to 1997 with the Conservative majority always being greater than 10% during this time. In 2015, following the Liberal Democrats' collapse in Weston-Super-Mare and Labour making only limited progress in Scarborough & Whitby, it appeared both would revert to being safe Conservative seats once more. This illusion was sharply torn earlier this year, when Labour came within remotely viable distance of Weston-Super-Mare at long last and turned Scarborough & Whitby back into a marginal seat.
Labour performed very well in these key areas, by sharply reducing the Conservative majority in the Mulgrave by-election despite UKIP's absence helping the Conservatives (the Yorkshire Party made no real impact on the result), and by capturing the North Worle ward of Weston-Super-Mare (consisting mainly of newer housing built to accommodate the town's expanding population) which had previously been held by a local organisation called North Somerset First, who the late councillor Derek Mead led before his death caused this by-election. Given that North Worle has never been Labour-held and consists mainly of commuters to the city of Bristol, this is an excellent result for them and a clear example of the importance of re-selecting good candidates.
North Somerset First has since deregistered, and its absence should have naturally been helpful to the Conservatives since most of these local groups tend to lean towards small 'c' conservatism. This however proved not to be the case and it reflects the level of distrust in the Conservative Party at present, and especially Theresa May's agenda. Nor did North Somerset First's absence do much to help any of the other three candidates; the Liberal Democrats' recovery was limited in a ward they once held comfortably. The local picture matters less in wards consisting primarily of commuters whose main activities are outside the ward or with highly transient populations (especially students) compared to the national picture.
Comments
Post a Comment