New Zealand general election of 2017: Jacinda's jubilance
After some wavering uncertainties, the latest New Zealand general election has not dealt the blow to the Nationals that progressives were helping for, even though Labour under Jacinda Ardem did indeed make a significant surge.
The National vote dropped by 2.0% to 46%, but this resulted in only a loss of 3 seats; despite also losing the electorate of Christchurch Central to Labour they captured Hutt South from Labour and recovered Northland from NZ First's maverick leader, Winston Peters, who had captured it in a 2015 by-election. Labour also captured Ohariu from United Future (in fact, the United Future candidate who replaced the retiring Peter Dunne, Bale Nadakultavukl, polled only 212 votes and finished second-last) and the sole Maori Party held electorate, Waiariki. These particular electorates were the only 5 of the 60 to change hands. Labour's vote increased to 35.8%, giving them as many as 45 seats (an increase of 13), their best result since 2008 and an important recovery given how they had been stuck in the doldrums for several years following Phil Goff's disastrous performance in 2011. Many crucial marginal National electorates like Auckland Central did not fall to Labour, however.
The seriousness of the scandal surrounding former Green Party of Aotearoa leader Metiria Turei's revelations of past wrongdoings, followed by the subsequent resignation of two Green list MPs, cost the Greens dearly; they lost half their seats and in a few opinion polls prior to the election they were polling less than 5%. In the end they polled 5.8%, which is actually a better result than they had managed in 2005, and kept 7 seats. The two-party squeeze between National and Labour also hit New Zealand First despite them keeping out of trouble; their vote share dropped to 7.5%, they lost 3 of their seats leaving them with 9, and Winston Peters is out of the New Zealand Parliament once again. The only other party to win any seats in New Zealand was ACT, and only because Bill English gave an endorsement to David Seymour, ACT's sole remaining MP (he represents the electorate of Epsom). ACT suffered a further loss in vote share by dropping from 0.7% to 0.5%.
The Opportunities Party, meanwhile, missed it by miles, polling just 2.21%, not even half the 5% threshold necessary for automatic representation (in New Zealand, parties can secure list seats with at least one electorate seat even if they did not poll 5% of the vote nationally). The extent of the two-party squeeze meant that no other minor party polled even half a percent, and every minor party which had contested the 2014 election lost in vote share terms. The collapse of the Conservative Party of New Zealand from nearly 4% to a pathetic 0.24% is the most noteworthy example; it had lost all credibility and influence following Colin Craig's departure. United Future, having lost its last influential figure to retirement, dropped to 0.07% and it is likely to dissolve within a year. The component parts of the failed Mana-Internet alliance polled a derisory 0.13% and 0.02% respectively, and Hone Harawira did not come close to recapturing the seat he had lost in 2014. The two newest parties to the race, the People's Party and the Outdoors Party, made no impact polling just 0.08% and 0.06% respectively.
In the 21 years New Zealand has had mixed-member proportional representation, this is the most two-party parliament New Zealand has seen. Between them, the Nationals and Labour now control 103 seats out of 120 (86%), although James Shaw and whoever succeeds Winston Peters as NZ First's parliamentary party leader will remain kingmakers in the next parliament. NZ First's traditionally more protectionist stance economically may potentially allow Jacinda Ardem to succeed Bill English as Prime Minister of New Zealand, but only if the Greens join such a coalition, which will not be a stable one by any means.
The National vote dropped by 2.0% to 46%, but this resulted in only a loss of 3 seats; despite also losing the electorate of Christchurch Central to Labour they captured Hutt South from Labour and recovered Northland from NZ First's maverick leader, Winston Peters, who had captured it in a 2015 by-election. Labour also captured Ohariu from United Future (in fact, the United Future candidate who replaced the retiring Peter Dunne, Bale Nadakultavukl, polled only 212 votes and finished second-last) and the sole Maori Party held electorate, Waiariki. These particular electorates were the only 5 of the 60 to change hands. Labour's vote increased to 35.8%, giving them as many as 45 seats (an increase of 13), their best result since 2008 and an important recovery given how they had been stuck in the doldrums for several years following Phil Goff's disastrous performance in 2011. Many crucial marginal National electorates like Auckland Central did not fall to Labour, however.
The seriousness of the scandal surrounding former Green Party of Aotearoa leader Metiria Turei's revelations of past wrongdoings, followed by the subsequent resignation of two Green list MPs, cost the Greens dearly; they lost half their seats and in a few opinion polls prior to the election they were polling less than 5%. In the end they polled 5.8%, which is actually a better result than they had managed in 2005, and kept 7 seats. The two-party squeeze between National and Labour also hit New Zealand First despite them keeping out of trouble; their vote share dropped to 7.5%, they lost 3 of their seats leaving them with 9, and Winston Peters is out of the New Zealand Parliament once again. The only other party to win any seats in New Zealand was ACT, and only because Bill English gave an endorsement to David Seymour, ACT's sole remaining MP (he represents the electorate of Epsom). ACT suffered a further loss in vote share by dropping from 0.7% to 0.5%.
The Opportunities Party, meanwhile, missed it by miles, polling just 2.21%, not even half the 5% threshold necessary for automatic representation (in New Zealand, parties can secure list seats with at least one electorate seat even if they did not poll 5% of the vote nationally). The extent of the two-party squeeze meant that no other minor party polled even half a percent, and every minor party which had contested the 2014 election lost in vote share terms. The collapse of the Conservative Party of New Zealand from nearly 4% to a pathetic 0.24% is the most noteworthy example; it had lost all credibility and influence following Colin Craig's departure. United Future, having lost its last influential figure to retirement, dropped to 0.07% and it is likely to dissolve within a year. The component parts of the failed Mana-Internet alliance polled a derisory 0.13% and 0.02% respectively, and Hone Harawira did not come close to recapturing the seat he had lost in 2014. The two newest parties to the race, the People's Party and the Outdoors Party, made no impact polling just 0.08% and 0.06% respectively.
In the 21 years New Zealand has had mixed-member proportional representation, this is the most two-party parliament New Zealand has seen. Between them, the Nationals and Labour now control 103 seats out of 120 (86%), although James Shaw and whoever succeeds Winston Peters as NZ First's parliamentary party leader will remain kingmakers in the next parliament. NZ First's traditionally more protectionist stance economically may potentially allow Jacinda Ardem to succeed Bill English as Prime Minister of New Zealand, but only if the Greens join such a coalition, which will not be a stable one by any means.
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