My analysis of local by-elections from 14/09/17

Readers, the results of this week's local by-elections were as follows:

Mid Devon DC, Westexe: Conservative 279 (36.4%, +11.2%), Independent (Gerard Luxton) 179 (23.4%, +7.6%), Labour 164 (21.4%, +11.5%), Liberal Democrats 144 (18.8%). Conservative gain from UKIP.

Trafford MBC, Bucklow St Martin's: Labour 1050 (64.7%, +26.3%), Conservative 456 (28.1%, +11.0%), UKIP 65 (4.0%, -9.3%), Green 33 (2.0%, -2.5%), Liberal Democrats 18 (1.1%, -1.8%).

West Dorset DC, Lyme Regis & Charmouth:  Independent 622 (52.3%), Conservative 396 (33.3%, -14.0%), Labour 171 (14.4%). Independent gain from Conservative.

In many metropolitan areas, the two-party squeeze continues anew, even where only one of the two can actually win (Labour in the case of Bucklow St Martin's, a safe Labour ward in the only Conservative-controlled northern metropolitan borough). There is actually more competition in the rural areas and small towns, especially when independents of varying ability and renown show up.

Westexe, the western ward of the town of Tiverton, has a history of frequently electing Independent and latterly UKIP councillors; Independent Gerald Luxton only lost his seat by 11 votes in 2015 due to the general election happening on the same day, which boosted the Conservative vote as a result of general election votes boosting the generally poor local election turnout. Turnout in local elections generally ranges from 50-60% of general election turnout in the same area-wards with particularly low turnout in local elections also have well below average turnout in general elections, and the London borough of Richmond-upon-Thames, which has the highest local election turnout in London, also has the highest general election turnout in London overall. On the back of his local following, Mr Luxton had high hopes of regaining his seat but did not come close to the victorious Conservative. In next-door Lyme Regis & Charmouth, on Dorset's western border with Devon, Cheryl Reynolds had much better luck by easily winning a seat in which she was already a town councillor (in the Lyme Regis part of the ward).

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