My analaysis of by-elections from 07/09/17
Readers, the results of the 14 (yes, 14) local by-elections this week were as follows:
Babergh DC, Sudbury South: Labour 336 (42.7%, +16.3%), Conservative 335 (42.6%, +5.3%), Liberal Democrats 116 (14.7%, +1.6%). Labour gain from Conservative.
Cannock Chase DC, Hednesford Green Heath: Labour 359 (43.9%, +11.1%), Conservative 301 (36.8%, -3.7%), Green 86 (10.5%, +7.4%), Chase Independent 42 (5.1%, -0.2%), UKIP 29 (3.5%, -14.7%). Labour gain from Conservative. All changes are since 2015.
Cannock Chase DC, Hednesford South: Green 513 (48.3%, +42.1%), Conservative 311 (29.3%, -11.9%), Labour 190 (17.9%, -13.2%), UKIP 48 (4.5%, -16.9%). Green gain from Conservative. All changes are since 2015.
Colchester BC, Shrub End: Conservative 681 (38.6%, +19.4%), Labour 572 (32.4%, +20.5%), Liberal Democrats 373 (21.4%, -13.9%), Independent 54 (3.1%, -9.7%), UKIP 52 (2.9%, -10.9%), Green 34 (1.9%, -5.6%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat.
Croydon LBC, South Norwood: Labour 1671 (59.0%, +7.9%) Conservative 475 (16.8%, -3.4%) Liberal Democrats 388 (13.7%, +6.7%), Green 218 (7.7%, -3.7%), UKIP 78 (2.8%, -7.9%).
East Cambridgeshire DC, Ely South: Liberal Democrats 527 (39.9%, +13.2%), Conservative 411 (31.1%, -19.7%), Labour 384 (29.0%, +6.5%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Glasgow UA, Cardonald (1st preference votes): Labour 2614 (48.6%, +10.1%), SNP 1972 (36.7%, -7.5%), Conservative 552 (10.3%, -1.7%), Green 147 (2.7%, +0.2%), Liberal Democrats 80 (1.5%), Libertarian 12 (0.2%). Labour elected at stage 4.
Herefordshire UA, Golden Valley South: Independent Jinman 462 (42.7%), Conservative 254 (23.5%, -42.3%), Independent 152 (14.1%), Green 109 (10.1%, -7.1%), Labour 104 (9.6%). Independent gain from Conservative.
Lancaster BC, Skerton West: Labour 512 (61.5%, +24.5%), Conservative 288 (34.6%, +8.7%), Liberal Democrats 33 (4.0%).
Lewes DC, Ouse Valley & Ringmer: Green 835 (38.7%, +22.3%), Conservative 660 (30.6%, +1.6%), Liberal Democrats 457 (21.2%, -8.0%), Labour 167 (7.7%, -4.4%), UKIP 38 (1.8%, -11.5%). Green gain from Conservative.
North Lanarkshire UA, Fortissat (1st preference votes): Labour 1420 (38.6%, +2.0%), Scottish Unionist 838 (23.3, +12.2%) SNP 761 (20.6%, -8.4%), Conservative 424 (11.5%, -1.8%), Independent 184 (5.0%, -5.1%),Green 24 (0.7%), UKIP 18 (0.5%). Labour elected at stage 7; Labour gain from Conservative.
Peterborough UA, Eye, Thorney & Newborough: Conservative 1018 (52.3%, +17.4%) Labour 555 (28.5%, +17.2%), UKIP 279 (14.3%, -7.5%), Green 61 (3.1%, -6.4%), Liberal Democrats 35 (1.8%).
Staffordshire CC, Hednesford & Rawnsley: Conservative 1484 (32.5%, -3.5%), Labour 1454 (31.9%, +4.2%), Green 1316 (28.9%, +3.8%), UKIP 175 (3.8%, -3.9%), Liberal Democrats 67 (1.5%), Chase Independent 65 (1.4%, -2.1%).
Suffolk CC, St Johns: Labour 1247 (62.9%, +5.3%), Conservative 483 (24.4%, -7.3%), Liberal Democrats 200 (10.1%, +5.1%), Green 52 (2.6%, -3.1%).
This week has been one of the best for the Green Party, who secured a second councillor on Cannock Chase District Council (not known for its environmentalist leanings; the strongest Green vote in Staffordshire at the last two general elections was in the cathedral city of Lichfield, an affluent and near-impenetrable Conservative fortress), and a fourth councillor in Lewes, once a strong Liberal Democrat bastion; however they narrowly missed on electing their very first county councillor in Staffordshire. Labour's gain in Cannock Chase at the same time (they also came close in the county council by-election) helped strengthen their weak majority and it represents a key turning of the tide in a county that has seen overall some of the most substantial pro-Conservative swings in the last seven years. Of Staffordshire's 12 constituencies, only 3 (Newcastle-under-Lyme, Stoke-on-Trent North, and Stoke-on-Trent Central) have Labour MPs and the Conservatives are close behind in these three. From 1997-2010, Labour held 9 of Staffordshire's 12 constituencies, but their 5 losses in 2010 (Staffordshire Moorlands, Stafford, Cannock Chase, Tamworth, and Burton) were usually on particularly high Labour-to-Conservative swings, particularly Cannock Chase which saw a 14% swing from Labour to Conservative, the second highest in the country that year (the highest, 14.4%, was in Hemel Hempstead, the site of my very first parliamentary contest in 2015). The former bellwether seat of Tamworth, once famous for making the much-maligned Reliant Robin, saw a Conservative vote of 61% in 2017 having achieved a 9.5% pro-Conservative swing in 2010 and a further 5.4% pro-Conservative swing in 2015. The old mining seat of Cannock Chase where these by-elections took place has itself a Conservative majority as high as 8.391. Hard work and personal campaigning pay off for anyone particularly at council level, but especially the Greens, as the newest Green councillors, Stuart Crabtree and Johnny Denis, showed last night. Their performance in Hednesford South also had a knock-on effect in nearby Hednesford Green Heath, where they achieved a respectable third. This is a frequent psephological phenomenon of 'surprise gains' in towns or cities where a particular party has obtained strong local support; four years after David Owen's win for the SDP in Plymouth Devonport the SDP-Liberal Alliance achieved a close second in Plymouth Sutton and Plymouth Drake (Conservative margins over the Alliance reduced to approximately 8% in each case at a time when the Alliance was losing votes nationally). The Greens also experienced this when they won Brighton Pavilion in 2010, since two of their other five saved deposits that last year were also in Brighton & Hove, specifically Brighton Kemptown (5.5%) and Hove (5.2%). Labour also had an excellent night, winning a council seat in otherwise safely Conservative Sudbury by one vote, coming a close second in Shrub End, Colchester, increasing their majority significantly in every seat they were defending this week, and easily fending off SNP challenges. It is looking better and better for Labour, even if their lead in voting intention polls is never higher than 5% over the Conservatives.
The Conservatives had a generally poor night with 5 losses-but they did manage to capture Shrub End in Colchester from the Liberal Democrats, who are a spent force in that town, unlikely to recover in the near future-in fact the Liberal Democrats finished a poor third in the Shrub End by-election and also in the Ouse Valley & Ringmer by-election. The Liberal Democrats cancelled this out with their spectacular gain in Ely South, which is not even the nicer historical part of that city but mostly consisting of newer housing built to accommodate Cambridgeshire's rapidly growing (sub)urban and commuter population. UKIP was never expected to do well at all-although its result in Peterborough is one of the best it has achieved in a long time in local by-elections and worthy of mention.
Three months on from their heavy seat losses in the last general election, the SNP are still struggling to find their feet and slipped back in both the local Scottish by-elections, coming nowhere near winning either. After a nice recess, there will be lots more interesting by-elections to come in Britain-and keep an eye out across the globe, as I mentioned earlier.
Babergh DC, Sudbury South: Labour 336 (42.7%, +16.3%), Conservative 335 (42.6%, +5.3%), Liberal Democrats 116 (14.7%, +1.6%). Labour gain from Conservative.
Cannock Chase DC, Hednesford Green Heath: Labour 359 (43.9%, +11.1%), Conservative 301 (36.8%, -3.7%), Green 86 (10.5%, +7.4%), Chase Independent 42 (5.1%, -0.2%), UKIP 29 (3.5%, -14.7%). Labour gain from Conservative. All changes are since 2015.
Cannock Chase DC, Hednesford South: Green 513 (48.3%, +42.1%), Conservative 311 (29.3%, -11.9%), Labour 190 (17.9%, -13.2%), UKIP 48 (4.5%, -16.9%). Green gain from Conservative. All changes are since 2015.
Colchester BC, Shrub End: Conservative 681 (38.6%, +19.4%), Labour 572 (32.4%, +20.5%), Liberal Democrats 373 (21.4%, -13.9%), Independent 54 (3.1%, -9.7%), UKIP 52 (2.9%, -10.9%), Green 34 (1.9%, -5.6%). Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat.
Croydon LBC, South Norwood: Labour 1671 (59.0%, +7.9%) Conservative 475 (16.8%, -3.4%) Liberal Democrats 388 (13.7%, +6.7%), Green 218 (7.7%, -3.7%), UKIP 78 (2.8%, -7.9%).
East Cambridgeshire DC, Ely South: Liberal Democrats 527 (39.9%, +13.2%), Conservative 411 (31.1%, -19.7%), Labour 384 (29.0%, +6.5%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.
Glasgow UA, Cardonald (1st preference votes): Labour 2614 (48.6%, +10.1%), SNP 1972 (36.7%, -7.5%), Conservative 552 (10.3%, -1.7%), Green 147 (2.7%, +0.2%), Liberal Democrats 80 (1.5%), Libertarian 12 (0.2%). Labour elected at stage 4.
Herefordshire UA, Golden Valley South: Independent Jinman 462 (42.7%), Conservative 254 (23.5%, -42.3%), Independent 152 (14.1%), Green 109 (10.1%, -7.1%), Labour 104 (9.6%). Independent gain from Conservative.
Lancaster BC, Skerton West: Labour 512 (61.5%, +24.5%), Conservative 288 (34.6%, +8.7%), Liberal Democrats 33 (4.0%).
Lewes DC, Ouse Valley & Ringmer: Green 835 (38.7%, +22.3%), Conservative 660 (30.6%, +1.6%), Liberal Democrats 457 (21.2%, -8.0%), Labour 167 (7.7%, -4.4%), UKIP 38 (1.8%, -11.5%). Green gain from Conservative.
North Lanarkshire UA, Fortissat (1st preference votes): Labour 1420 (38.6%, +2.0%), Scottish Unionist 838 (23.3, +12.2%) SNP 761 (20.6%, -8.4%), Conservative 424 (11.5%, -1.8%), Independent 184 (5.0%, -5.1%),Green 24 (0.7%), UKIP 18 (0.5%). Labour elected at stage 7; Labour gain from Conservative.
Peterborough UA, Eye, Thorney & Newborough: Conservative 1018 (52.3%, +17.4%) Labour 555 (28.5%, +17.2%), UKIP 279 (14.3%, -7.5%), Green 61 (3.1%, -6.4%), Liberal Democrats 35 (1.8%).
Staffordshire CC, Hednesford & Rawnsley: Conservative 1484 (32.5%, -3.5%), Labour 1454 (31.9%, +4.2%), Green 1316 (28.9%, +3.8%), UKIP 175 (3.8%, -3.9%), Liberal Democrats 67 (1.5%), Chase Independent 65 (1.4%, -2.1%).
Suffolk CC, St Johns: Labour 1247 (62.9%, +5.3%), Conservative 483 (24.4%, -7.3%), Liberal Democrats 200 (10.1%, +5.1%), Green 52 (2.6%, -3.1%).
This week has been one of the best for the Green Party, who secured a second councillor on Cannock Chase District Council (not known for its environmentalist leanings; the strongest Green vote in Staffordshire at the last two general elections was in the cathedral city of Lichfield, an affluent and near-impenetrable Conservative fortress), and a fourth councillor in Lewes, once a strong Liberal Democrat bastion; however they narrowly missed on electing their very first county councillor in Staffordshire. Labour's gain in Cannock Chase at the same time (they also came close in the county council by-election) helped strengthen their weak majority and it represents a key turning of the tide in a county that has seen overall some of the most substantial pro-Conservative swings in the last seven years. Of Staffordshire's 12 constituencies, only 3 (Newcastle-under-Lyme, Stoke-on-Trent North, and Stoke-on-Trent Central) have Labour MPs and the Conservatives are close behind in these three. From 1997-2010, Labour held 9 of Staffordshire's 12 constituencies, but their 5 losses in 2010 (Staffordshire Moorlands, Stafford, Cannock Chase, Tamworth, and Burton) were usually on particularly high Labour-to-Conservative swings, particularly Cannock Chase which saw a 14% swing from Labour to Conservative, the second highest in the country that year (the highest, 14.4%, was in Hemel Hempstead, the site of my very first parliamentary contest in 2015). The former bellwether seat of Tamworth, once famous for making the much-maligned Reliant Robin, saw a Conservative vote of 61% in 2017 having achieved a 9.5% pro-Conservative swing in 2010 and a further 5.4% pro-Conservative swing in 2015. The old mining seat of Cannock Chase where these by-elections took place has itself a Conservative majority as high as 8.391. Hard work and personal campaigning pay off for anyone particularly at council level, but especially the Greens, as the newest Green councillors, Stuart Crabtree and Johnny Denis, showed last night. Their performance in Hednesford South also had a knock-on effect in nearby Hednesford Green Heath, where they achieved a respectable third. This is a frequent psephological phenomenon of 'surprise gains' in towns or cities where a particular party has obtained strong local support; four years after David Owen's win for the SDP in Plymouth Devonport the SDP-Liberal Alliance achieved a close second in Plymouth Sutton and Plymouth Drake (Conservative margins over the Alliance reduced to approximately 8% in each case at a time when the Alliance was losing votes nationally). The Greens also experienced this when they won Brighton Pavilion in 2010, since two of their other five saved deposits that last year were also in Brighton & Hove, specifically Brighton Kemptown (5.5%) and Hove (5.2%). Labour also had an excellent night, winning a council seat in otherwise safely Conservative Sudbury by one vote, coming a close second in Shrub End, Colchester, increasing their majority significantly in every seat they were defending this week, and easily fending off SNP challenges. It is looking better and better for Labour, even if their lead in voting intention polls is never higher than 5% over the Conservatives.
The Conservatives had a generally poor night with 5 losses-but they did manage to capture Shrub End in Colchester from the Liberal Democrats, who are a spent force in that town, unlikely to recover in the near future-in fact the Liberal Democrats finished a poor third in the Shrub End by-election and also in the Ouse Valley & Ringmer by-election. The Liberal Democrats cancelled this out with their spectacular gain in Ely South, which is not even the nicer historical part of that city but mostly consisting of newer housing built to accommodate Cambridgeshire's rapidly growing (sub)urban and commuter population. UKIP was never expected to do well at all-although its result in Peterborough is one of the best it has achieved in a long time in local by-elections and worthy of mention.
Three months on from their heavy seat losses in the last general election, the SNP are still struggling to find their feet and slipped back in both the local Scottish by-elections, coming nowhere near winning either. After a nice recess, there will be lots more interesting by-elections to come in Britain-and keep an eye out across the globe, as I mentioned earlier.
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