Alan's Green Thoughts' guide to the German federal election of 2017
Next month, Germany goes to the polls for the Bundestag election, one of the most important in all Europe especially given the influence of Chancellor Dr Angela Dorothea Merkel, aka 'Mutti'.
The candidates in the Wahlkreis (single member constituencies) and the Landkreis (party lists) have now been finalised, and a total of 38 parties will be participating in this election. Including the CSU who are allied with the governing CDU, only 10 will be on the ballot in all states. They are in addition to the CDU/CSU the SPD (Social Democrats), Greens, FDP (Free Democrats), Die Linke (The Left), AfD (Alternative for Germany), Die PARTEI, MLPD (Marxist-Leninist Party of Germany), FREIE WAHLER (Free Voters) and BGE (Basic Income Party). Other parties featured in 10 or more of the lander include the NPD (National Democrats; Berlin is the only place where they are not on the ballot), PIRATEN (Pirate Party), ODP (Ecological Democrats), V-Partei (Vegetarians and Vegans Party), Tierschutzpartei (Animal Welfare Party), and DM (German Centre).
Current polls show that the shine has come off Martin Schulz, Chancellor-Candidate for the SPD, and that Angela Merkel is back on form by polling consistently 37-40%. The battle for third place is by far the most contested-the smaller parties likely to enter or remain in the Bundestag, who are Die Linke, the Greens, the FDP, and AfD, have been polling from 6-10% consistently for the last two months. Die Linke's position is strongest in practice as they are the only party other than the CDU and SPD who can realistically challenge for significant numbers of single member constituencies; they won 4 all on Berlin's east side (down from 16 in 2009 nonetheless). By contrast the Greens can only challenge in five of Germany's 299 SMCs at the moment (they hold one in Berlin, whose member, Hans-Christian Strobele, is retiring this year; the only other 4 they have a hope of winning are in central Berlin, central Stuttgart, and the city of Freiburg im Breisgau respectively) and the FDP and AfD are not in contention to win any direct mandates and will have to rely entirely on list seats.
So what is likely to happen?
Nordrhein-Westfalen (North Rhine-Westphalia) and the capital of Berlin will be the ones to watch in terms of direct mandates as well as list votes; the size of most single member constituencies in Germany (electorates are around 200,000 per SMC) means the majority of them are safe and that even marginal SMCs will only go from CDU to SPD and back again election after election. The FDP is likely to return to the Bundestag after having lost all of its seats in 2013; their performance and that of the Greens will be deal-breakers in this election as the CDU find it easier in practice to work with the FDP than the SPD, and the SPD find it easiest to work with the Greens amongst potential junior coalition partners. The AfD's almost certain entry to the Bundestag will have a lesser impact since other German political parties are unwilling to work with them due to their racist and anti-immigrant tendencies; it will not be able to have the blockade power of the Sweden Democrats as its support is much lower in the West than in the East of Germany.
Angela Merkel will almost certainly be returned as Chancellor for a fourth term, but this German Bundestag election is no less worth watching than those before.
The candidates in the Wahlkreis (single member constituencies) and the Landkreis (party lists) have now been finalised, and a total of 38 parties will be participating in this election. Including the CSU who are allied with the governing CDU, only 10 will be on the ballot in all states. They are in addition to the CDU/CSU the SPD (Social Democrats), Greens, FDP (Free Democrats), Die Linke (The Left), AfD (Alternative for Germany), Die PARTEI, MLPD (Marxist-Leninist Party of Germany), FREIE WAHLER (Free Voters) and BGE (Basic Income Party). Other parties featured in 10 or more of the lander include the NPD (National Democrats; Berlin is the only place where they are not on the ballot), PIRATEN (Pirate Party), ODP (Ecological Democrats), V-Partei (Vegetarians and Vegans Party), Tierschutzpartei (Animal Welfare Party), and DM (German Centre).
Current polls show that the shine has come off Martin Schulz, Chancellor-Candidate for the SPD, and that Angela Merkel is back on form by polling consistently 37-40%. The battle for third place is by far the most contested-the smaller parties likely to enter or remain in the Bundestag, who are Die Linke, the Greens, the FDP, and AfD, have been polling from 6-10% consistently for the last two months. Die Linke's position is strongest in practice as they are the only party other than the CDU and SPD who can realistically challenge for significant numbers of single member constituencies; they won 4 all on Berlin's east side (down from 16 in 2009 nonetheless). By contrast the Greens can only challenge in five of Germany's 299 SMCs at the moment (they hold one in Berlin, whose member, Hans-Christian Strobele, is retiring this year; the only other 4 they have a hope of winning are in central Berlin, central Stuttgart, and the city of Freiburg im Breisgau respectively) and the FDP and AfD are not in contention to win any direct mandates and will have to rely entirely on list seats.
So what is likely to happen?
Nordrhein-Westfalen (North Rhine-Westphalia) and the capital of Berlin will be the ones to watch in terms of direct mandates as well as list votes; the size of most single member constituencies in Germany (electorates are around 200,000 per SMC) means the majority of them are safe and that even marginal SMCs will only go from CDU to SPD and back again election after election. The FDP is likely to return to the Bundestag after having lost all of its seats in 2013; their performance and that of the Greens will be deal-breakers in this election as the CDU find it easier in practice to work with the FDP than the SPD, and the SPD find it easiest to work with the Greens amongst potential junior coalition partners. The AfD's almost certain entry to the Bundestag will have a lesser impact since other German political parties are unwilling to work with them due to their racist and anti-immigrant tendencies; it will not be able to have the blockade power of the Sweden Democrats as its support is much lower in the West than in the East of Germany.
Angela Merkel will almost certainly be returned as Chancellor for a fourth term, but this German Bundestag election is no less worth watching than those before.
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