The road to Downing Street now runs by the seaside
Labour's win of the recent by-election in Marine ward, Worthing, is not a surprise but merely part of a trend.
Seaside resorts, particularly on the south coast, have been getting considerably better for Labour during the last few years. Blackpool and Brighton started the trend in the 1980s when after the 1992 general election, Blackpool North, Blackpool South and Brighton Pavilion became marginal seats for the first time having always been safely Conservative before. Previously, such seaside towns could only possibly become marginal through the intervention of respected Liberal candidates (Ronnie Fearn in Southport, for example, and briefly Michael Pitts in Scarborough) with a strong personal vote, and that was only possible in smaller seaside towns.
To compare the general election trend in such places, let us take a look at the main results in Worthing West and Worthing East & Shoreham since their creation in 1997 (from Worthing and Shoreham):
Worthing West:
Year: Conservative: Labour: Liberal Democrat:
1997 46.1% 16.2% 31.2%
2001 47.5 21.2 26.5
2005 47.6 19.2 26.7
2010 51.7 11.8 27.9
2015 51.5 15.7 8.8
2017 55.4 33.2 5.5
Worthing East & Shoreham:
Year: Conservative: Labour: Liberal Democrat:
1997 40.5 23.9 30.6
2001 43.2 29.0 22.9
2005 43.9 25.5 24.3
2010 48.5 16.7 25.5
2015 49.5 19.5 6.7
2017 48.9 39.3 4.7
The last time both seats were this marginal before 2017 was 1997, when Labour's landslide victory gave them 2 1/2 times as many seats as the defeated Conservatives (418 to 165); Labour are still 55 seats behind the Conservatives (262 to 317) and they are now the main competitors for those seats, not the Liberal Democrats. As I have said here: https://greensocialistalan.blogspot.co.uk/2017/08/my-analysis-of-by-elections-from-3817.html this is being caused by Brightonians looking for more affordable housing and rents and a decline in the elderly populations of both towns. This extends to results at a local level as well: Labour made three gains in Adur (covering Shoreham-by-Sea) in 2016 and once UKIP's support collapses there next year, they stand to become the beneficiaries.
Bournemouth also experienced a similar phenomenon, with the Labour vote in both Bournemouth East and Bournemouth West rising to as high as 35.6% and 36.2% respectively, the highest Labour vote shares ever recorded in Bournemouth by far. And with the Liberal Democrats no longer competitive there either, the split opposition factor will become moot.
Scarborough, meanwhile, did not revert back to being the safe Conservative seat it once was even though Labour lost it in 2005 and not 2010; they actually reduced the Conservative majority in 2015 and it is back in Labour's firing line. Southport, which has never been a Labour seat, now has Labour in a competitive second place instead of the Liberal Democrats who had previously held it. Meanwhile back on the south coast, South Thanet, Dover, and Hastings & Rye have become competitive for Labour again and are key targets for them in the next general election. The Conservative majorities in both Southend seats (over Labour), meanwhile, are the lowest since the 1997 Labour landslide.
Some more prosperous seaside towns which are also increasingly home to commuters, like Gosport and Fareham, continue to resist this trend, as do the more prosperous ones which lack any significant young population, like Christchurch (the safest Conservative seat in the country). However, constituencies on the south coast of England will nonetheless be crucial to the outcome of the next general election, as will the Black Country, England's answer to the USA's 'rust belt'.
Seaside resorts, particularly on the south coast, have been getting considerably better for Labour during the last few years. Blackpool and Brighton started the trend in the 1980s when after the 1992 general election, Blackpool North, Blackpool South and Brighton Pavilion became marginal seats for the first time having always been safely Conservative before. Previously, such seaside towns could only possibly become marginal through the intervention of respected Liberal candidates (Ronnie Fearn in Southport, for example, and briefly Michael Pitts in Scarborough) with a strong personal vote, and that was only possible in smaller seaside towns.
To compare the general election trend in such places, let us take a look at the main results in Worthing West and Worthing East & Shoreham since their creation in 1997 (from Worthing and Shoreham):
Worthing West:
Year: Conservative: Labour: Liberal Democrat:
1997 46.1% 16.2% 31.2%
2001 47.5 21.2 26.5
2005 47.6 19.2 26.7
2010 51.7 11.8 27.9
2015 51.5 15.7 8.8
2017 55.4 33.2 5.5
Worthing East & Shoreham:
Year: Conservative: Labour: Liberal Democrat:
1997 40.5 23.9 30.6
2001 43.2 29.0 22.9
2005 43.9 25.5 24.3
2010 48.5 16.7 25.5
2015 49.5 19.5 6.7
2017 48.9 39.3 4.7
The last time both seats were this marginal before 2017 was 1997, when Labour's landslide victory gave them 2 1/2 times as many seats as the defeated Conservatives (418 to 165); Labour are still 55 seats behind the Conservatives (262 to 317) and they are now the main competitors for those seats, not the Liberal Democrats. As I have said here: https://greensocialistalan.blogspot.co.uk/2017/08/my-analysis-of-by-elections-from-3817.html this is being caused by Brightonians looking for more affordable housing and rents and a decline in the elderly populations of both towns. This extends to results at a local level as well: Labour made three gains in Adur (covering Shoreham-by-Sea) in 2016 and once UKIP's support collapses there next year, they stand to become the beneficiaries.
Bournemouth also experienced a similar phenomenon, with the Labour vote in both Bournemouth East and Bournemouth West rising to as high as 35.6% and 36.2% respectively, the highest Labour vote shares ever recorded in Bournemouth by far. And with the Liberal Democrats no longer competitive there either, the split opposition factor will become moot.
Scarborough, meanwhile, did not revert back to being the safe Conservative seat it once was even though Labour lost it in 2005 and not 2010; they actually reduced the Conservative majority in 2015 and it is back in Labour's firing line. Southport, which has never been a Labour seat, now has Labour in a competitive second place instead of the Liberal Democrats who had previously held it. Meanwhile back on the south coast, South Thanet, Dover, and Hastings & Rye have become competitive for Labour again and are key targets for them in the next general election. The Conservative majorities in both Southend seats (over Labour), meanwhile, are the lowest since the 1997 Labour landslide.
Some more prosperous seaside towns which are also increasingly home to commuters, like Gosport and Fareham, continue to resist this trend, as do the more prosperous ones which lack any significant young population, like Christchurch (the safest Conservative seat in the country). However, constituencies on the south coast of England will nonetheless be crucial to the outcome of the next general election, as will the Black Country, England's answer to the USA's 'rust belt'.
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