Alan's Green Thoughts' guide to the Czech general election of 2017
In seven weeks' time, the Czech Republic aka Czechia will be holding its next legislative election.
The most notable feature is that ANO (derived from the Czech word for 'yes') has been a great success by the standards of the often fragmented Czech parliament; Czech politics is truly multiparty. Many countries with proportional representation by contrast have two particularly dominant parties, usually representing moderate conservatives and social democrats; other parties can generally only hope to be junior coalition partners. This was originally the case in the Czech Republic with the ODS and CSSD almost always taking over half the seats between them, but not anymore. ANO's leader, Andrej Babis, who is also the second richest man in the Czech Republic, is set to become Prime Minister having been Deputy Prime Minister in the currently Social Democrat-led government. The Social Democrats themselves have not been well-received despite being the leading coalition partner; they are polling a distant second and currently stand to receive only 10-15% of the vote. However, given that despite achieving poll position they only managed 20.5% of the vote in 2013, this is reasonably acceptable especially compared to the collapse the Civic Democrats (ODS) suffered in 2013.
ODS, having lost many of its moderate voters to ANO, is making a limited recovery at best, generally polling no better than 11% and no better than fourth; its main base and membership are in long-term decline and it is unlikely ever to recover its former glory. The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KCSM) faces similar long-term problems because its older, ex-industrial voter base is fading and it is not obtaining significant support from younger and more modern, well-educated voters. Its most recent local election results in the Czech Republic have been its worst ever and they have been happening even with the Social Democrats' relatively low popularity, not too dissimilar to the Socialist Party's problems in the Netherlands.
The competition is getting tighter for smaller parties in the Czech Republic; ODS' former coalition partners, TOP 09, are losing support to ANO as well, more so due to TOP 09 and ANO having more similar platforms compared to ODS and ANO (ODS is more Eurosceptic).
USVIT (Dawn of Direct Democracy) is set to be wiped out with its former leader, Tomo Okamura, having formed Freedom of Direct Democracy. SPD is much more popular than USVIT but its position is by no means safe. The Green Party (ZELENI) is not making any improvement on its 2013 result (3.2% and no seats, since 5% is the threshold for representation in the Czech Republic) and is in fact falling behind the Pirate Party, who competes for a not-too-dissimilar voter base. If the Pirate Party manages to enter the Assembly, it will spark a recovery for the Pirate Party movement, which has been suffering major setbacks worldwide, with the Pirate Party of Germany having lost all Landtag seats and all real credibility, and with the Icelandic Pirate Party only having come third in 2016 despite frequently topping the opinion polls there just months beforehand. The Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) went into an ill-timed alliance with the Mayors and Independents list (STAN) which damaged the standing of both parties, especially since the threshold for coalitions is 10% as opposed to 5% for individual parties; similar laws apply in many other Central and Eastern European countries. This alliance has now ended and KDU-CSL is set to stay in the Assembly, but STAN is not predicted to come close. No other Czech Party has a realistic chance of crossing the threshold, with the Party of Free Citizens (SVOBODNI) and the Realists (a split from ANO; despite this origin their political platform is actually more like SVOBDNI's), both of whom can be described as 'loosely nationalist libertarian-right', unlikely to achieve more than 2% of the vote apiece.
ANO could win as many as 90 seats this October, unprecedented in the Czech Republic's history even if it is not enough for an outright majority; it will however allow them to have a wider choice of coalition partners since ANO and the Social Democrats have not been cooperating particularly well lately. On the other hand, if ANO does not quite live up to those high expectations, it will likely be forced to continue its current coalition except with it as the leading partner instead of the Social Democrats.
The most notable feature is that ANO (derived from the Czech word for 'yes') has been a great success by the standards of the often fragmented Czech parliament; Czech politics is truly multiparty. Many countries with proportional representation by contrast have two particularly dominant parties, usually representing moderate conservatives and social democrats; other parties can generally only hope to be junior coalition partners. This was originally the case in the Czech Republic with the ODS and CSSD almost always taking over half the seats between them, but not anymore. ANO's leader, Andrej Babis, who is also the second richest man in the Czech Republic, is set to become Prime Minister having been Deputy Prime Minister in the currently Social Democrat-led government. The Social Democrats themselves have not been well-received despite being the leading coalition partner; they are polling a distant second and currently stand to receive only 10-15% of the vote. However, given that despite achieving poll position they only managed 20.5% of the vote in 2013, this is reasonably acceptable especially compared to the collapse the Civic Democrats (ODS) suffered in 2013.
ODS, having lost many of its moderate voters to ANO, is making a limited recovery at best, generally polling no better than 11% and no better than fourth; its main base and membership are in long-term decline and it is unlikely ever to recover its former glory. The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KCSM) faces similar long-term problems because its older, ex-industrial voter base is fading and it is not obtaining significant support from younger and more modern, well-educated voters. Its most recent local election results in the Czech Republic have been its worst ever and they have been happening even with the Social Democrats' relatively low popularity, not too dissimilar to the Socialist Party's problems in the Netherlands.
The competition is getting tighter for smaller parties in the Czech Republic; ODS' former coalition partners, TOP 09, are losing support to ANO as well, more so due to TOP 09 and ANO having more similar platforms compared to ODS and ANO (ODS is more Eurosceptic).
USVIT (Dawn of Direct Democracy) is set to be wiped out with its former leader, Tomo Okamura, having formed Freedom of Direct Democracy. SPD is much more popular than USVIT but its position is by no means safe. The Green Party (ZELENI) is not making any improvement on its 2013 result (3.2% and no seats, since 5% is the threshold for representation in the Czech Republic) and is in fact falling behind the Pirate Party, who competes for a not-too-dissimilar voter base. If the Pirate Party manages to enter the Assembly, it will spark a recovery for the Pirate Party movement, which has been suffering major setbacks worldwide, with the Pirate Party of Germany having lost all Landtag seats and all real credibility, and with the Icelandic Pirate Party only having come third in 2016 despite frequently topping the opinion polls there just months beforehand. The Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) went into an ill-timed alliance with the Mayors and Independents list (STAN) which damaged the standing of both parties, especially since the threshold for coalitions is 10% as opposed to 5% for individual parties; similar laws apply in many other Central and Eastern European countries. This alliance has now ended and KDU-CSL is set to stay in the Assembly, but STAN is not predicted to come close. No other Czech Party has a realistic chance of crossing the threshold, with the Party of Free Citizens (SVOBODNI) and the Realists (a split from ANO; despite this origin their political platform is actually more like SVOBDNI's), both of whom can be described as 'loosely nationalist libertarian-right', unlikely to achieve more than 2% of the vote apiece.
ANO could win as many as 90 seats this October, unprecedented in the Czech Republic's history even if it is not enough for an outright majority; it will however allow them to have a wider choice of coalition partners since ANO and the Social Democrats have not been cooperating particularly well lately. On the other hand, if ANO does not quite live up to those high expectations, it will likely be forced to continue its current coalition except with it as the leading partner instead of the Social Democrats.
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