Alan's Green Thoughts' guide to the Norwegian election of 2017

The next Norwegian general election is just three weeks away-and an interesting one it will be as well.

The parties participating in this election include (from 2013): the Labour Party, the Conservative Party, the Progress Party (actually a Norwegian equivalent of UKIP), the Centre Party, the Christian Democrats, the Liberals, the Socialist Left Party, the Green Party, the Red Party (Marxist), the Christians, the Pensioners Party, the Pirate Party, Democrats in Norway, Alliance, Health Party, Feminist Initiative, the Communist Party, and the Capitalist Party.

At present, Prime Minister Erna Solberg from the Conservatives (Hoyre) is set to lose power, especially due to a dip in fortunes in the Progress Party, whose leader, Siv Jensen, is the Norwegian Minister of Finance. Meanwhile, the Labour leader in Norway, Jonas Gahr Stare, is not polling any better than Labour did in 2013 and the performance of other parties (especially those hovering around the 4% threshold for levelling seats) will be crucial to whether Jonas takes over as Norwegian Prime Minister or whether Erna remains in that position.

The Greens and the Reds have seen the best rise in their fortunes ever, with some polls predicting at least one of them (and possibly both) will pass the levelling threshold and establish a real presence in the Storting. The Red Party, the most left-wing of the more significant political parties in Norway, is likely to obtain at least one seat, and the Greens will at the very least retain their seat in Oslo. 150 of the 169 Norwegian seats are allocated by county, with the capital, Oslo, receiving the largest allocation with 19 and Akershus, a Norwegian equivalent of outer London, receiving the second largest allocation with 17. It appears likely that the Greens and Reds will therefore get at least one seat in each of those counties even if they do not quite hit 4% or more. The smallest counties, including Finnmark, a Norwegian equivalent of the Highlands (except for its arctic climate) send just 4 MPs to the Storting by comparison. There are also 19 levelling seats for parties who achieve at least 4% of the vote across Norway.

The rural Centre Party is doing particularly well, but the same cannot be said for the fate of the Liberals or the Socialist Left, both of which could potentially drop below the 4% threshold necessary to gain levelling seats, which will have a sharp impact on both of the two largest parties in Norway and the formation of the next government.

The outcome is by no means certain, and even the small number of seats obtained by the Greens and the Red Party could make all the difference in the end.

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