Why a proposed new centre party is doomed to fail/why the SDP was doomed to fail
There have been recent talks of pro-Remain MPs from both Labour and the Conservative Parties forming a new, anti-Brexit 'centre party', as seen in The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/aug/05/new-political-party-leave-voters-right among other media.
This is reminiscent of the breakway SDP, founded by the 'Gang of Four' (Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams, David Owen and Bill Rodgers) in 1981 and taking in 27 Labour MPs (and the Conservative MP for North West Norfolk, Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler) in the process. Although it initially achieved surprisingly high success in by-elections and some local elections and, once allied to the Liberals, topped the opinion polls until the Falklands War, it overall only ended up splitting the Labour vote enough to grant the Conservatives treble-figure majorities twice (144 in 1983 and 102 in 1987) and after 1987 dwindled to the point where most of its members agreed a merger between the SDP and the Liberals to form the present-day Liberal Democrats. When three SDP MPs-David Owen, Rosie Barnes, and John Cartwright- tried to continue the SDP, they politically plummeted even faster than ever before to the point where the continuing SDP achieved less than half the votes of Screaming Lord Sutch in the Bootle by-election of 1990. Amazingly, an SDP still exists, but it is a politically minute outfit with no principal authority councillors and (at most) 40 members. Its six candidates in the 2017 general election achieved just 469 votes between them, and all of them finished bottom of the poll in the constituencies they stood in.
The SDP, like many similar and less well-known parties before it (the Social Democratic Alliance, which featured prominently in the 1981 Greater London Council election, and Dick Taverne's Democratic Labour whose two 1979 general election candidates, Frederick Stockdale and Cyril Nottingham, indirectly handed the seats of Lincoln and Brigg & Scunthorpe to the Conservatives) never had a realistic chance of survival in the long term. This is because it lacked core grassroots support, which any significant political party requires. All five of the largest parties in England had this feature to some extent or another, but the SDP never did being formed mainly of moderate Labour MPs rather than any significant number of grassroots activists. This also partly explains why the continuing SDP did not survive; without extensive media coverage or real support it faded away into irrelevance within only two years, inflated largely by David Owen's ego.
The proposed new centrist Anti-Brexit party has the same problems-it is currently mere speculation by the media and I have seen no desire from significant numbers of actual voters for such a party, especially when the Liberal Democrats and Green Party already exist. Even if it is formed, it will not be able to sustain itself for more than a few years because 'Bregretters' and those wanting a second EU referendum already have somewhere to turn. There is just no space for it in modern British politics, which is much more crowded than it was back in 1981.
This is reminiscent of the breakway SDP, founded by the 'Gang of Four' (Roy Jenkins, Shirley Williams, David Owen and Bill Rodgers) in 1981 and taking in 27 Labour MPs (and the Conservative MP for North West Norfolk, Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler) in the process. Although it initially achieved surprisingly high success in by-elections and some local elections and, once allied to the Liberals, topped the opinion polls until the Falklands War, it overall only ended up splitting the Labour vote enough to grant the Conservatives treble-figure majorities twice (144 in 1983 and 102 in 1987) and after 1987 dwindled to the point where most of its members agreed a merger between the SDP and the Liberals to form the present-day Liberal Democrats. When three SDP MPs-David Owen, Rosie Barnes, and John Cartwright- tried to continue the SDP, they politically plummeted even faster than ever before to the point where the continuing SDP achieved less than half the votes of Screaming Lord Sutch in the Bootle by-election of 1990. Amazingly, an SDP still exists, but it is a politically minute outfit with no principal authority councillors and (at most) 40 members. Its six candidates in the 2017 general election achieved just 469 votes between them, and all of them finished bottom of the poll in the constituencies they stood in.
The SDP, like many similar and less well-known parties before it (the Social Democratic Alliance, which featured prominently in the 1981 Greater London Council election, and Dick Taverne's Democratic Labour whose two 1979 general election candidates, Frederick Stockdale and Cyril Nottingham, indirectly handed the seats of Lincoln and Brigg & Scunthorpe to the Conservatives) never had a realistic chance of survival in the long term. This is because it lacked core grassroots support, which any significant political party requires. All five of the largest parties in England had this feature to some extent or another, but the SDP never did being formed mainly of moderate Labour MPs rather than any significant number of grassroots activists. This also partly explains why the continuing SDP did not survive; without extensive media coverage or real support it faded away into irrelevance within only two years, inflated largely by David Owen's ego.
The proposed new centrist Anti-Brexit party has the same problems-it is currently mere speculation by the media and I have seen no desire from significant numbers of actual voters for such a party, especially when the Liberal Democrats and Green Party already exist. Even if it is formed, it will not be able to sustain itself for more than a few years because 'Bregretters' and those wanting a second EU referendum already have somewhere to turn. There is just no space for it in modern British politics, which is much more crowded than it was back in 1981.
Comments
Post a Comment