My analysis of by-elections from 3/8/17
Readers, the results from this week's local by-elections in the UK are as follows:
Charnwood DC, Loughborough Shelthorpe: Labour 595 (45.5%, +4.7%), Conservative 591 (45.2%, +2.7%), Liberal Democrats 93 (7.1%), UKIP 29 (2.2%).
King's Lynn & West Norfolk BC, St Margarets with St Nicholas: Conservative 253 (36.2%, -6.6%), Labour 210 (36.0%, -3.1%), Liberal Democrats 173 (24.7%), Green 63 (9.0%, -15.1%). Conservative gain from Labour.
Sevenoaks DC, Penshurst, Fordscombe, and Chiddingstone: Conservative 438 (58.8%, +5.5%), Liberal Democrats 253 (34.0%, +0.2%), Labour 54 (7.2%).
Swale BC, Milton Regis: Labour 573 (53.8%, +25.1%), Conservative 255 (23.9%, -9.8%), UKIP 151 (14.2%, -14.7%), Liberal Democrats 86 (8.1%, -0.5%). Labour gain from UKIP.
Thanet DC, Margate Central: Labour 454 (57.1%, +26.6%), Conservative 190 (24.1%, +3.4%), UKIP 52 (6.6%, -25.7%), Liberal Democrats 33 (4.2%), No Description (Dean McCastree) 24 (3.0%), Green 23 (2.9%, -7.4%), Independent 13 (1.6%). Labour gain from UKIP.
Worthing BC, Marine: Labour 1032 (47.4%, +27.8%), Conservative 846 (38.8%, -6.4%), Liberal Democrats 246 (11.3%, +1.1%), Green 55 (2.5%, -6.2%). Labour gain from Conservative.
Labour's gain of Marine ward in this week's by-election, despite the fact Labour has only ever elected one councillor in Worthing before and the fact Marine ward has up until now continuously elected Conservative councillors since 1973, was not as surprising as many believed. Labour have been steadily gaining ground in Worthing and Shoreham in the last five years due to an influx of younger professionals moving in; this is happening as nearby Brighton and Hove are increasingly unaffordable to live in for many of them. House prices in the affluent areas of Brighton are now comparable with parts of London. Meanwhile, older voters are not as willing as they used to be to retire by the coast in traditional coastal towns. This phenomenon is not limited to Worthing, Shoreham, Brighton, or Hove either; Labour results have never been better in otherwise very safely Conservative Bournemouth. In anticipation, Labour worked as hard as they could in the by-election with their general election candidate for Worthing West (in which this ward sits), Rebecca Cooper, becoming the victorious councillor.
This week's by-elections also show how the UKIP vote is no longer reliably turning back to the Conservatives, especially in the south of England, as has been previously expected. Labour's vote share increase in percentage terms was almost eight times that of the Conservatives' own increase in the Margate Central by-election, which UKIP lost heavily. The same happened with the Milton Regis by-election in Swale, where the Conservatives lost out heavily and where Labour managed a majority of nearly 30%.
Labour's night was not entirely positive, however, as they lost a seat in the competitive St Margaret's with St Nicholas ward of King's Lynn, which regularly changes hands between the Conservatives and Labour, and they only narrowly held the Loughborough Shelthorpe by-election. Labour is still struggling to regain the respect of more average voters.
UKIP is becoming increasingly irrelevant when Britain is unlikely to avert Brexit altogether, and often does not stand at all when it is not defending a seat or in any position to gain one. The Liberal Democrats and the Green Party are struggling outside their best areas; only St Margarets with St Nicholas ward produced a competitive result for the Green Party last time out of these by-elections and this was without a Lib Dem candidate present in 2015. One entered this time and absorbed a large proportion of the Green votes that would otherwise have gone to the Lib Dems. The Liberal Democrats have been rapidly losing their grip on southern coastal towns and cities; they were once somewhat in contention in Bournemouth and Worthing but not anymore; they have no seats on Bournemouth council, have been losing seats rapidly in Fareham, lost their deposit in the Gosport constituency in June as well as Worthing East & Shoreham, and in Shoreham itself (i.e. Adur council) they are being replaced by Labour as a key opposition to the usually dominant Conservatives. Eastbourne (considerably further away from Brighton & Hove than Worthing or Shoreham) is bucking the trend largely due to Stephen Lloyd's personal vote and much more resilient organisation as well as the genteel nature of the place aiding the Liberal Democrats more than Labour.
Charnwood DC, Loughborough Shelthorpe: Labour 595 (45.5%, +4.7%), Conservative 591 (45.2%, +2.7%), Liberal Democrats 93 (7.1%), UKIP 29 (2.2%).
King's Lynn & West Norfolk BC, St Margarets with St Nicholas: Conservative 253 (36.2%, -6.6%), Labour 210 (36.0%, -3.1%), Liberal Democrats 173 (24.7%), Green 63 (9.0%, -15.1%). Conservative gain from Labour.
Sevenoaks DC, Penshurst, Fordscombe, and Chiddingstone: Conservative 438 (58.8%, +5.5%), Liberal Democrats 253 (34.0%, +0.2%), Labour 54 (7.2%).
Swale BC, Milton Regis: Labour 573 (53.8%, +25.1%), Conservative 255 (23.9%, -9.8%), UKIP 151 (14.2%, -14.7%), Liberal Democrats 86 (8.1%, -0.5%). Labour gain from UKIP.
Thanet DC, Margate Central: Labour 454 (57.1%, +26.6%), Conservative 190 (24.1%, +3.4%), UKIP 52 (6.6%, -25.7%), Liberal Democrats 33 (4.2%), No Description (Dean McCastree) 24 (3.0%), Green 23 (2.9%, -7.4%), Independent 13 (1.6%). Labour gain from UKIP.
Worthing BC, Marine: Labour 1032 (47.4%, +27.8%), Conservative 846 (38.8%, -6.4%), Liberal Democrats 246 (11.3%, +1.1%), Green 55 (2.5%, -6.2%). Labour gain from Conservative.
Labour's gain of Marine ward in this week's by-election, despite the fact Labour has only ever elected one councillor in Worthing before and the fact Marine ward has up until now continuously elected Conservative councillors since 1973, was not as surprising as many believed. Labour have been steadily gaining ground in Worthing and Shoreham in the last five years due to an influx of younger professionals moving in; this is happening as nearby Brighton and Hove are increasingly unaffordable to live in for many of them. House prices in the affluent areas of Brighton are now comparable with parts of London. Meanwhile, older voters are not as willing as they used to be to retire by the coast in traditional coastal towns. This phenomenon is not limited to Worthing, Shoreham, Brighton, or Hove either; Labour results have never been better in otherwise very safely Conservative Bournemouth. In anticipation, Labour worked as hard as they could in the by-election with their general election candidate for Worthing West (in which this ward sits), Rebecca Cooper, becoming the victorious councillor.
This week's by-elections also show how the UKIP vote is no longer reliably turning back to the Conservatives, especially in the south of England, as has been previously expected. Labour's vote share increase in percentage terms was almost eight times that of the Conservatives' own increase in the Margate Central by-election, which UKIP lost heavily. The same happened with the Milton Regis by-election in Swale, where the Conservatives lost out heavily and where Labour managed a majority of nearly 30%.
Labour's night was not entirely positive, however, as they lost a seat in the competitive St Margaret's with St Nicholas ward of King's Lynn, which regularly changes hands between the Conservatives and Labour, and they only narrowly held the Loughborough Shelthorpe by-election. Labour is still struggling to regain the respect of more average voters.
UKIP is becoming increasingly irrelevant when Britain is unlikely to avert Brexit altogether, and often does not stand at all when it is not defending a seat or in any position to gain one. The Liberal Democrats and the Green Party are struggling outside their best areas; only St Margarets with St Nicholas ward produced a competitive result for the Green Party last time out of these by-elections and this was without a Lib Dem candidate present in 2015. One entered this time and absorbed a large proportion of the Green votes that would otherwise have gone to the Lib Dems. The Liberal Democrats have been rapidly losing their grip on southern coastal towns and cities; they were once somewhat in contention in Bournemouth and Worthing but not anymore; they have no seats on Bournemouth council, have been losing seats rapidly in Fareham, lost their deposit in the Gosport constituency in June as well as Worthing East & Shoreham, and in Shoreham itself (i.e. Adur council) they are being replaced by Labour as a key opposition to the usually dominant Conservatives. Eastbourne (considerably further away from Brighton & Hove than Worthing or Shoreham) is bucking the trend largely due to Stephen Lloyd's personal vote and much more resilient organisation as well as the genteel nature of the place aiding the Liberal Democrats more than Labour.
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