My analysis of British local by-elections from the first fortnight of September 2021

 Readers, the results of British local by-elections from the first fortnight of September 2021 (2 and 9 September 2021) were as follows:

(02/09/2021):

Calerdale MBC, Park: Labour 1,980 (82.9%, -4.3%), Conservative 212 (8.9%, +2.2%), Green 137 (5.7%, +1.8%), Liberal Democrats 60 (2.5%, +0.3%). All changes are since 2019.

Calerdale MBC, Ryburn: Conservative 1,188 (53.6%, +25.4%), Labour 798 (36.0%, +24.8%), Green 163 (7.4%, +0.9%), Liberal Democrats 66 (3.0%, -0.9%). Conservative gain from Independent; all changes are since 2019.

Cheshire East UA, Wilmslow Dean Row: Residents of Wilmslow 447 (50.7%, -18.7%), Conservative 354 (40.2%, +9.6%), Liberal Democrats 46 (5.2%), Green 34 (3.9%). 

(09/09/2021):

Newcastle-upon-Tyne MBC, Castle: Liberal Democrats 1,306 (42.5%, -5.9%), Labour 773 (25.1%, -6.0%), Conservative 657 (21.4%, +6.8%), Green 250 (8.1%, -0.2%), North East Party 89 (2.9%). [No Independent candidates this time; the Independent in May was the North East Party candidate in this by-election]

North East Derbyshire DC, Barlow & Holmesfield: Conservative 294 (69.0%, +3.8%), Labour 90 (21.1%, -0.4%), Liberal Democrats 42 (9.9%, -3.4%).

North East Derbyshire DC, Killamarsh East: Labour 291 (49.9%, +2.7%), Conservative 251 (43.1%, -9.8%), Liberal Democrats 41 (7.0%). Labour gain from Conservative.

North Tyneside MBC, Camperdown: Labour 957 (66.7%, +7.2%), Conservative 352 (24.5%, +6.5%), Green 78 (5.4%), Liberal Democrats 48 (3.3%).

South Derbyshire DC, Seales: Wheelton (Independent) 399 (39.8%), Conservative 390 (38.9%, -11.7%)) Labour 188 (18.7%, -11.4%), Green 27 (2.6%). Independent gain from Conservative. [SDP did not stand]

South Tyneside MBC, Cleadon & East Boldon: Conservative 989 (35.1%, -13.5%), Green 943 (33.5%, +22.4%), Labour 886 (31.4%, -8.9%). 

Of these nine by-elections, the most surprising result was a near-miss by the Green Party in Cleadon & East Boldon ward, the only ward in South Tyneside that has elected Conservative councillors recently; in the North East the Green Party has generally fared better in traditionally Labour-held seats (all the recent Green gains in South Tyneside have been from Labour, for example), and which is normally a tight Conservative-Labour marginal.

Meanwhile, in Killamarsh East, Labour gained the seat partly because the Liberal Democrats accidentally split the Labour vote; in ex-mining areas such as Killamarsh the Liberal Democrat vote (and the Green vote) is naturally weak and generally hits the Conservative vote much more than the Labour vote, although in most cases this makes little difference. The recent National Insurance rise, which all but five Conservative MPs (Sir Christopher Chope, Phillip Davies, Neil Hudson, Esther McVey and Sir John Redwood) voted for, was also a significant factor in the Conservatives' loss of that by-election, as well as their loss of the Seales by-election in South Derbyshire (which also had a sitting Conservative councillor re-running as an Independent) and them nearly losing Cleadon & East Boldon. It has also led to the Conservatives polling below Labour for the first time in seven years; this is not surprising given that it will be low-income workers and self-employed small businesspeople (who formed a large proportion of Labour-Conservative switchers and Brexit Party voters in 2019) who will be hit hardest by National Insurance rises, at a time where the UK is still struggling to recover economically and socially from COVID despite restrictions having been lifted nearly two months ago.



Comments

  1. clivelord.wordpress.com10 September 2021 at 22:23

    Just to reinforce the trend for Greens to take Con rather than Lab votes. The Tories should lose all their 'red wall' gains as a result of their recent mean tax on the poorest with Covid as the pretext. But Greens should be pushing the IPCC 'Red Alert' warning, and those pics of a devastated street in Germany

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