My analysis of by-elections from 6/9/18 and other thoughts
Readers, the results of British local by-elections from this week were as follows:
Carlisle BC, Denton Holme: Labour 647 (62.5%, +1.4%), Conservative 254 (24.5%, -3.4%), Green 78 (7.5%, -3.5%), UKIP 57 (5.5%). All changes are since May.
Cumbria CC, Denton Holme: Labour 625 (59.1%, -0.9%), Conservative 292 (27.6%, +0.6%), Green 94 (8.9%, +1.9%), UKIP 46 (4.4%, -1.6%).
Fife UA, Inverkeithing & Dalgety Bay (1st preference votes): Conservative 2309 (37.3%, +0.7%), SNP 1741 (28.1%, -2.7%), Labour 744 (12.0%, -4.8%), Liberal Democrats 566 (9.1%, +4.1%), Independent (Collins ) 521 (8.4%), Green 257 (4.2%, +0.7%), Independent (MacIntyre) 40 (0.6%), Libertarian 13 (0.2%). Conservative gain from Labour at stage 8.
Tameside MBC, Ashton Waterloo: Labour 889 (52.5%, -7.1%), Green 448 (26.4%, +11.8%), Conservative 357 (21.1%, -4.7%). All changes are since 2016.
The adverse press and social media coverage the Green Party received last week over issues relating to Aimee Challenor, who has since resigned from the Green Party, did not result in sharp Green Party vote share decreases. In fact, the Green Party increased its vote share in two of the three local by-elections taking place in England, and only suffered an average vote share loss in the other. The Green Party has been gaining considerable traction in Tameside in the last five years, helped by the relative lack of Liberal Democrat activity in this particular borough of Greater Manchester. This result in Ashton Waterloo, where the Green Party made the largest vote share increase since the last local elections in May and took second place from the Conservatives, was also down to problems within Labour. The candidate originally selected by Labour, described as an "inspiring activist" in some quarters, was dropped simply because she still owed council tax at selection time, which did not go down well with Labour voters especially since Ashton under Lyne's Labour vote is of a more traditional type. Given that this May almost all of the Green Party's council seat losses were to Labour (in fact, only one loss was to a different political party, namely the Conservatives in Nuneaton, Warwickshire), the 9.5% swing from Labour to Green is certainly a welcome development for them. The Greens also increased their vote share slightly in Denton Holme even though it was a safely Labour ward. Most of the notable Green Party increases at local by-elections happen when they are almost certain to, or at least in a reasonable position to, win the seat in question.
Summer is now over and so is the parliamentary recess, but turnouts have not improved much from August, except in the competitive by-election of Inverkeithing & Dalgety Bay, a key commuter area to the Scottish capital of Edinburgh. Since Edinburgh is one of the most expensive cities in the UK to live in, the commuters in this part of Fife are affluent and lean towards the Conservatives, who topped the poll in this ward last year. Unlike many commuter areas personal votes count for a lot in Inverkeithing & Dalgety Bay; Labour were defending this seat but their candidate finished a poor third, lacking the renown of the previous councillor. It reverted to a Conservative-SNP contest which the Conservatives only won in the final stage, helped by them gaining votes that were cast for currently sitting Independent councillors last year. Peter Collins only finished fourth but what is interesting is how evenly his transferable votes were transferred after his elimination at stage 4: 125 to the Conservatives, 110 to the SNP, 73 to Labour, and 107 to the Liberal Democrats.
In other green news, the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda won its first ever seats in Rwanda's Chamber of Deputies, a major breakthrough for the green political movement in Africa. Vote-rigging, bribery, and voter intimidation are frequent in elections of many African countries and Rwanda is no exception, as last year's re-election of long-serving President Paul Kagame with 98.8% of the vote (an absurdly high figure typical of rigged elections) proves.
Carlisle BC, Denton Holme: Labour 647 (62.5%, +1.4%), Conservative 254 (24.5%, -3.4%), Green 78 (7.5%, -3.5%), UKIP 57 (5.5%). All changes are since May.
Cumbria CC, Denton Holme: Labour 625 (59.1%, -0.9%), Conservative 292 (27.6%, +0.6%), Green 94 (8.9%, +1.9%), UKIP 46 (4.4%, -1.6%).
Fife UA, Inverkeithing & Dalgety Bay (1st preference votes): Conservative 2309 (37.3%, +0.7%), SNP 1741 (28.1%, -2.7%), Labour 744 (12.0%, -4.8%), Liberal Democrats 566 (9.1%, +4.1%), Independent (Collins ) 521 (8.4%), Green 257 (4.2%, +0.7%), Independent (MacIntyre) 40 (0.6%), Libertarian 13 (0.2%). Conservative gain from Labour at stage 8.
Tameside MBC, Ashton Waterloo: Labour 889 (52.5%, -7.1%), Green 448 (26.4%, +11.8%), Conservative 357 (21.1%, -4.7%). All changes are since 2016.
The adverse press and social media coverage the Green Party received last week over issues relating to Aimee Challenor, who has since resigned from the Green Party, did not result in sharp Green Party vote share decreases. In fact, the Green Party increased its vote share in two of the three local by-elections taking place in England, and only suffered an average vote share loss in the other. The Green Party has been gaining considerable traction in Tameside in the last five years, helped by the relative lack of Liberal Democrat activity in this particular borough of Greater Manchester. This result in Ashton Waterloo, where the Green Party made the largest vote share increase since the last local elections in May and took second place from the Conservatives, was also down to problems within Labour. The candidate originally selected by Labour, described as an "inspiring activist" in some quarters, was dropped simply because she still owed council tax at selection time, which did not go down well with Labour voters especially since Ashton under Lyne's Labour vote is of a more traditional type. Given that this May almost all of the Green Party's council seat losses were to Labour (in fact, only one loss was to a different political party, namely the Conservatives in Nuneaton, Warwickshire), the 9.5% swing from Labour to Green is certainly a welcome development for them. The Greens also increased their vote share slightly in Denton Holme even though it was a safely Labour ward. Most of the notable Green Party increases at local by-elections happen when they are almost certain to, or at least in a reasonable position to, win the seat in question.
Summer is now over and so is the parliamentary recess, but turnouts have not improved much from August, except in the competitive by-election of Inverkeithing & Dalgety Bay, a key commuter area to the Scottish capital of Edinburgh. Since Edinburgh is one of the most expensive cities in the UK to live in, the commuters in this part of Fife are affluent and lean towards the Conservatives, who topped the poll in this ward last year. Unlike many commuter areas personal votes count for a lot in Inverkeithing & Dalgety Bay; Labour were defending this seat but their candidate finished a poor third, lacking the renown of the previous councillor. It reverted to a Conservative-SNP contest which the Conservatives only won in the final stage, helped by them gaining votes that were cast for currently sitting Independent councillors last year. Peter Collins only finished fourth but what is interesting is how evenly his transferable votes were transferred after his elimination at stage 4: 125 to the Conservatives, 110 to the SNP, 73 to Labour, and 107 to the Liberal Democrats.
In other green news, the Democratic Green Party of Rwanda won its first ever seats in Rwanda's Chamber of Deputies, a major breakthrough for the green political movement in Africa. Vote-rigging, bribery, and voter intimidation are frequent in elections of many African countries and Rwanda is no exception, as last year's re-election of long-serving President Paul Kagame with 98.8% of the vote (an absurdly high figure typical of rigged elections) proves.
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