Analysis of British local by-elections from 20/9/18

Readers, the results from British local by-elections from 20 September 2018 were as follows:

East Devon DC, Ottery St Mary Rural: Independent 755 (59.4%), Conservative 421 (33.1%, -10.9%), Liberal Democrat 51 (4.0%), Green 24 (1.9%), Labour 20 (1.6%). Independent gain from East Devon Independent Alliance, who did not contest the by-election.

Epsom & Ewell BC, Nonsuch: Residents' Association 766 (68.0%, +8.8%), Conservative 227 (20.2%, -5.2%), Liberal Democrats 92 (8.2%,-0.5%), Labour 41 (3.6%, -3.2%).

Luton UA, Limbury: Labour 692 (48.3%, -13.5%), Conservative 396 (27.7%, -10.5%), Liberal Democrats 344 (24.0%).

Suffolk Coastal DC, Wenhaston & Wettleston: Conservative 431 (50.6%, -2.6%), Liberal Democrats 340 (40.0%, +16.3%), Green 80 (9.4%).

Winchester DC, Upper Meon Valley: Conservative 1039 (51.6%, -15.2%), Liberal Democrats 905 (44.9%, +26.1%), Labour 39 (1.9%, -12.5%), Green 31 (1.5%). All changes are since 2016.

Wyre Forest BC, Bewdley & Rock: Conservative 734 (51.8%, +12.5%), Labour 489 (34.5%, +18.5%), Liberal Democrats 109 (7.7%), Green 85 (6.0%, +1.7%). All changes are since 2016. [Health Concern and UKIP did not stand]

In most of these by-elections, two-party battles of whatever type were the order of the day. Ottery St Mary Rural in East Devon and Upper Meon Valley in Winchester proved this more than anything else. In East Devon, the Independent tacitly supported by the East Devon Alliance (key supporters of Claire Wright, who has polled the most votes for any Independent parliamentary candidate in Britain outside Northern Ireland in the last two general elections) easily triumphed but it is clear that a heavy tactical squeeze on other parties' voters was a decisive factor in this Independent win. The same applied in Winchester where a Liberal Democrat win would have allowed them to wrest control of Winchester council from the Conservatives, which they only narrowly failed to do in May. The troubles around Brexit are affecting both the Conservative and Labour parties, with Labour divisions around Brexit becoming more apparent than ever, with Labour members recently voting to call their leadership to ask for at least a vote on the final Brexit deal, if not a second referendum on EU membership:

This is undoubtedly a key factor behind relatively even vote share drop for both Labour and the Conservatives in the safe Labour ward of Limbury due to a Liberal Democrat intervention, and Labour and the Conservatives both benefitting significantly from the absence of both UKIP and Health Concern candidates in Wyre Forest; however in Wyre Forest Health Concern voters were more supportive of Labour due to greater dissatisfaction at the Conservative government.

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