New Brunswick gets new balance of power in their 2018 provincial election
The New Brunswick general election of 2018 is another psephological watershed for Canada-it is the first election to give a result with two parties holding the balance of power instead of one, and could result in the first official coalition at provincial level in Canada.
The Green Party of New Brunswick consolidated well on David Coon's breakthrough in Fredericton South, although not anywhere else in Fredericton itself. The ridings they won in addition to Fredericton South, where David increased his majority to 36.3% and his vote share to 56.7%, were some distance from Fredericton; they were Kent North and Memramcook-Tantramar, which was won by just 17 votes. They also finished a good second in the safely Liberal riding of Restigouche West through the personal vote of Charles Theriault, who had achieved an excellent result for an Independent candidate in 2014 in the same riding. However, the unfortunate reason they failed to make a breakthrough in the promising riding of Fredericton North was because their original candidate, Christopher Smissaert, had been dropped due to "unspecified behavioural issues" and this had a negative "knock-on effect" on Green advances in Fredericton, which apart from David's own riding of Fredericton South were proportionally smaller than in most of the rest of the province compared to the vote share increase they obtained in New Brunswick, where they increased their vote share from 6.6% to 11.9%. Normally a "knock-on effect" in political terms boosts neighbouring votes for the same party substantially, as it did in Plymouth during the general elections of 1983 and 1987 when David Owen was SDP MP for Plymouth Devonport.
First past the post, which Canada uses for all elections, sometimes creates "wrong winner" problems where the party polling the most votes does not poll the most seats. This happened in this provincial election since the Liberals lost their majority in the New Brunswick Assembly. They lost six seats despite having obtained 37.8% of the vote to the Progressive Conservatives' 31.9% of the vote, although the Progressive Conservatives only won one more seat (22) than the Liberals (21) in New Brunswick. The Liberal vote piled up in safe seats, as it often does in Canada in general.
The People's Alliance of New Brunswick, a conservative populist and anti-bilingual party (New Brunswick is Anglophone as a Canadian province overall but has a significant Francophone minority), managed to win 3 seats despite only fielding 30 candidates across the 49 ridings. In spite of fielding only 30 candidates it finished third in vote share terms with 12.6% of the vote, mostly from the Progressive Conservatives. Their support was strongest in the Capital Region and Miramichi but they fielded only one candidate in the Northern Region of New Brunswick, and polled poorly where the Greens polled well.
The New Democratic Party had a disastrous night in New Brunswick. Their vote share dropped from 13% to 5% and not only did they win no ridings, but also they only came second in two ridings: Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore and Dieppe.In Saint John Harbour their leader, Jennifer McKenzie, finished third behind the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives in a tight race which Liberal Gerry Lowe won by only 10 votes. Many of their votes were lost to the Greens, particularly in Fredericton, and in fact the defection of NDP supporters to the Greens was a key factor in David Coon's victory in 2014. The NDP lost many traditional voters under Dominic Candy, who is now a Progressive Conservative MLA, and they have not been able to recover them despite Jennifer McKenzie having pledged to return the New Brunswick NDP to its traditional roots.
Of the few other candidates who contested this provincial election, KISS NB, a minor centrist party who only just fielded 9 candidates in time and had limited resources, polled just 366 votes between their 9 candidates. This equates to an average, rounded up, of just 41 votes per candidate, and none of them polled even 1% of the vote in their riding. Independent candidates fared no better; ex-Liberal MLA Chris Collins could only finish a distant second in Moncton Centre with just 19.4% of the vote as an Independent.
The most important question is who will lead the next provincial government of New Brunswick? Both current New Brunswick Premier Brian Gallant and his main rival, Blaine Higgs who leads the Progressive Conservatives, are trying to court both the Peoples' Alliance and the Greens for confidence and supply, since a formal coalition is very unlikely to occur and neither the Liberals nor the Progressive Conservatives can form a viable minority government in New Brunswick.
The Green Party of New Brunswick consolidated well on David Coon's breakthrough in Fredericton South, although not anywhere else in Fredericton itself. The ridings they won in addition to Fredericton South, where David increased his majority to 36.3% and his vote share to 56.7%, were some distance from Fredericton; they were Kent North and Memramcook-Tantramar, which was won by just 17 votes. They also finished a good second in the safely Liberal riding of Restigouche West through the personal vote of Charles Theriault, who had achieved an excellent result for an Independent candidate in 2014 in the same riding. However, the unfortunate reason they failed to make a breakthrough in the promising riding of Fredericton North was because their original candidate, Christopher Smissaert, had been dropped due to "unspecified behavioural issues" and this had a negative "knock-on effect" on Green advances in Fredericton, which apart from David's own riding of Fredericton South were proportionally smaller than in most of the rest of the province compared to the vote share increase they obtained in New Brunswick, where they increased their vote share from 6.6% to 11.9%. Normally a "knock-on effect" in political terms boosts neighbouring votes for the same party substantially, as it did in Plymouth during the general elections of 1983 and 1987 when David Owen was SDP MP for Plymouth Devonport.
First past the post, which Canada uses for all elections, sometimes creates "wrong winner" problems where the party polling the most votes does not poll the most seats. This happened in this provincial election since the Liberals lost their majority in the New Brunswick Assembly. They lost six seats despite having obtained 37.8% of the vote to the Progressive Conservatives' 31.9% of the vote, although the Progressive Conservatives only won one more seat (22) than the Liberals (21) in New Brunswick. The Liberal vote piled up in safe seats, as it often does in Canada in general.
The People's Alliance of New Brunswick, a conservative populist and anti-bilingual party (New Brunswick is Anglophone as a Canadian province overall but has a significant Francophone minority), managed to win 3 seats despite only fielding 30 candidates across the 49 ridings. In spite of fielding only 30 candidates it finished third in vote share terms with 12.6% of the vote, mostly from the Progressive Conservatives. Their support was strongest in the Capital Region and Miramichi but they fielded only one candidate in the Northern Region of New Brunswick, and polled poorly where the Greens polled well.
The New Democratic Party had a disastrous night in New Brunswick. Their vote share dropped from 13% to 5% and not only did they win no ridings, but also they only came second in two ridings: Bathurst East-Nepisiguit-Saint-Isidore and Dieppe.In Saint John Harbour their leader, Jennifer McKenzie, finished third behind the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives in a tight race which Liberal Gerry Lowe won by only 10 votes. Many of their votes were lost to the Greens, particularly in Fredericton, and in fact the defection of NDP supporters to the Greens was a key factor in David Coon's victory in 2014. The NDP lost many traditional voters under Dominic Candy, who is now a Progressive Conservative MLA, and they have not been able to recover them despite Jennifer McKenzie having pledged to return the New Brunswick NDP to its traditional roots.
Of the few other candidates who contested this provincial election, KISS NB, a minor centrist party who only just fielded 9 candidates in time and had limited resources, polled just 366 votes between their 9 candidates. This equates to an average, rounded up, of just 41 votes per candidate, and none of them polled even 1% of the vote in their riding. Independent candidates fared no better; ex-Liberal MLA Chris Collins could only finish a distant second in Moncton Centre with just 19.4% of the vote as an Independent.
The most important question is who will lead the next provincial government of New Brunswick? Both current New Brunswick Premier Brian Gallant and his main rival, Blaine Higgs who leads the Progressive Conservatives, are trying to court both the Peoples' Alliance and the Greens for confidence and supply, since a formal coalition is very unlikely to occur and neither the Liberals nor the Progressive Conservatives can form a viable minority government in New Brunswick.
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