My analysis of British local by-elections from 13/9/18 and other thoughts
Readers, the results of the British local by-elections that took place this week were as follows:
Cambridge BC, Petersfield: Labour 873 (47.9%, -10.4%), Liberal Democrats 663 (36.4%,+16.3%), Green 171 (9.4%, -3.5%), Conservative 115 (6.3%, -2.5%). All changes are since May.
Charnwood BC, Birstall Wanlip: Conservative 492 (47.1%, +6.2%), Labour 340 (32.6%, +5.1%), Liberal Democrats 128 (12.3%, -19.4%), UKIP 50 (4.8%), Green 34 (3.3%).
Lambeth LBC, Coldharbour: Labour 1789 (58.2%, +3.0%), Green 912 (30.5%, +12.3%), Liberal Democrats 148 (5.0%, +0.5%), Conservative 119 (4.0%, -1.4%), Women's Equality Party 47 (1.6%), UKIP 21 (0.7%).
Maidstone BC, Headcorn: Conservative 686 (57.3%, -17.5%), Liberal Democrats 409 (34.1%, +19.7%), Labour 63 (5.3%, -5.5%), Green 40 (3.3%).
New Forest DC, Pennington: Conservative 497 (42.0%, -11.6%), Liberal Democrats 420 (37.6%, +11.6%), Independent (Jearrad) 144 (12.2%), Labour 97 (8.2%, -12.2%).
Pembrokeshire UA, St Mary North: Independent (Harvey) 137 (32.5%, -5.9%), Daphne Bush (No Description) 79 (13.7%),Independent (Nutting) 77 (13.4%), Labour 61 (10.6%,-11.6%), Independent (Boucher) 59 (10.2%), Conservative 45 (7.8%, -31.6%), Edwards (No Description) 42 (7.3%), Independent (Williams) 26 (4.5%). Independent (Harvey) gain from Conservative.
At this time, the Cambridge student population will not have moved to Cambridge yet, and Petersfield has a high student population. However, due to its high graduate population, turnout in the Petersfield by-election was still respectable by the standards of British local by-elections and the swing of 13.4% swing is not surprising given how substantially the well-educated urban population has been turning against Labour lately, due to divisions within Labour and Labour's failure to turn back on Brexit.
Meanwhile, over in Coldharbour, the overall safest Labour ward in Lambeth, the Green Party was not able to achieve the swing it had achieved in nearby Gipsy Hill despite the Greens winning support over controversial developments in Lambeth; in fact the swing was a surprisingly low 4.65%, even though the Green Party candidate, Michael Groce, is a well-known community activist and poet in Lambeth. The turnout was only 24.9%, partly due to the ward being so safe for Labour-in fact, Coldharbour (and its predecessor ward of Angell) is the only Labour ward to have been held uninterruptedly by Labour in Lambeth since the inaugural Lambeth council election of 1964. Most of the Labour vote increase, however small it was, came from the fact that ex-Labour councillor Rachel Heywood, who had stood in the ward in May, did not stand again. Coldharbour has many underlying factors which make it a very safe Labour ward at present despite good Green potential-it has the third highest African British population in the country, 60% of the ward's housing is council housing, and long-term unemployment levels are considerably higher than the national average despite over 36% of the ward population possessing a university degree. The result nevertheless bodes well for the Greens in terms of future by-elections in Lambeth.
The Liberal Democrats achieved some strong swings in safe wards this week but were unable to make any surprise gains, and they underwent a vote collapse in Birstall Wanlip. Birstall, a prosperous ipso facto suburb of the city of Leicester, is generally safely Conservative and the Liberal Democrat candidate was not well-known. The seat thus reverted to type at the by-election.
The large number of independents (6 out of 8) in the St Mary North by-election in Pembrokeshire is not surprising at all-Pembrokeshire, like most of rural Wales, has a strong tradition of Independent candidates and councillors and in fact it has never been under partisan control at county level. Due to six independents standing, the winner, Jon Harvey, suffered a small loss of support compared to his 2017 result, not helped by former Independent councillor for the neighbouring ward of St Mary South, Daphne Bush, also standing. The large number of independents contributed to one of the largest Conservative collapses seen in a Welsh by-election, with 80% of their 2017 vote share being lost by the Conservatives. Pembrokeshire is sometimes known as "little England beyond Wales" and has a strong small conservative element as a result, but this generally only helps the Conservatives at general election time not local election time.
On another note, the European Parliament recently passed a motion to start an "Article 7" process on Hungary, which would see it stripped of its voting rights on the European council unless its Fidesz-led government stops encouraging anti-immigrant prejudice and lifts excessive restrictions on the media and judiciary, by a vote of 448-197; the group of Conservative MEPs however voted against the motion, with the exception of Nosheena Mobarik (who voted in favour), Sajjad Karim, and Charles Tannock (the latter two abstained). Under Viktor Orban's tenure, antiziganism, anti-Semitism, and Islamophobia have been on the rise in Hungary and this vote hopes to call for a stop to it. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservative-orban-hungary-jewish-deputies-board-antisemitism-tory-british-meps-eu-vote-latest-a8535846.html I personally believe this vote was necessary to uphold the fair rule of law and promote equality across Europe, and that despite claims to the contrary it is likely Brexit did play some role in the way the Conservative group of MEPs voted, given that Mr Orban is one of the most Eurosceptic leaders of EU countries not planning to leave the European Union in the near future.
Cambridge BC, Petersfield: Labour 873 (47.9%, -10.4%), Liberal Democrats 663 (36.4%,+16.3%), Green 171 (9.4%, -3.5%), Conservative 115 (6.3%, -2.5%). All changes are since May.
Charnwood BC, Birstall Wanlip: Conservative 492 (47.1%, +6.2%), Labour 340 (32.6%, +5.1%), Liberal Democrats 128 (12.3%, -19.4%), UKIP 50 (4.8%), Green 34 (3.3%).
Lambeth LBC, Coldharbour: Labour 1789 (58.2%, +3.0%), Green 912 (30.5%, +12.3%), Liberal Democrats 148 (5.0%, +0.5%), Conservative 119 (4.0%, -1.4%), Women's Equality Party 47 (1.6%), UKIP 21 (0.7%).
Maidstone BC, Headcorn: Conservative 686 (57.3%, -17.5%), Liberal Democrats 409 (34.1%, +19.7%), Labour 63 (5.3%, -5.5%), Green 40 (3.3%).
New Forest DC, Pennington: Conservative 497 (42.0%, -11.6%), Liberal Democrats 420 (37.6%, +11.6%), Independent (Jearrad) 144 (12.2%), Labour 97 (8.2%, -12.2%).
Pembrokeshire UA, St Mary North: Independent (Harvey) 137 (32.5%, -5.9%), Daphne Bush (No Description) 79 (13.7%),Independent (Nutting) 77 (13.4%), Labour 61 (10.6%,-11.6%), Independent (Boucher) 59 (10.2%), Conservative 45 (7.8%, -31.6%), Edwards (No Description) 42 (7.3%), Independent (Williams) 26 (4.5%). Independent (Harvey) gain from Conservative.
At this time, the Cambridge student population will not have moved to Cambridge yet, and Petersfield has a high student population. However, due to its high graduate population, turnout in the Petersfield by-election was still respectable by the standards of British local by-elections and the swing of 13.4% swing is not surprising given how substantially the well-educated urban population has been turning against Labour lately, due to divisions within Labour and Labour's failure to turn back on Brexit.
Meanwhile, over in Coldharbour, the overall safest Labour ward in Lambeth, the Green Party was not able to achieve the swing it had achieved in nearby Gipsy Hill despite the Greens winning support over controversial developments in Lambeth; in fact the swing was a surprisingly low 4.65%, even though the Green Party candidate, Michael Groce, is a well-known community activist and poet in Lambeth. The turnout was only 24.9%, partly due to the ward being so safe for Labour-in fact, Coldharbour (and its predecessor ward of Angell) is the only Labour ward to have been held uninterruptedly by Labour in Lambeth since the inaugural Lambeth council election of 1964. Most of the Labour vote increase, however small it was, came from the fact that ex-Labour councillor Rachel Heywood, who had stood in the ward in May, did not stand again. Coldharbour has many underlying factors which make it a very safe Labour ward at present despite good Green potential-it has the third highest African British population in the country, 60% of the ward's housing is council housing, and long-term unemployment levels are considerably higher than the national average despite over 36% of the ward population possessing a university degree. The result nevertheless bodes well for the Greens in terms of future by-elections in Lambeth.
The Liberal Democrats achieved some strong swings in safe wards this week but were unable to make any surprise gains, and they underwent a vote collapse in Birstall Wanlip. Birstall, a prosperous ipso facto suburb of the city of Leicester, is generally safely Conservative and the Liberal Democrat candidate was not well-known. The seat thus reverted to type at the by-election.
The large number of independents (6 out of 8) in the St Mary North by-election in Pembrokeshire is not surprising at all-Pembrokeshire, like most of rural Wales, has a strong tradition of Independent candidates and councillors and in fact it has never been under partisan control at county level. Due to six independents standing, the winner, Jon Harvey, suffered a small loss of support compared to his 2017 result, not helped by former Independent councillor for the neighbouring ward of St Mary South, Daphne Bush, also standing. The large number of independents contributed to one of the largest Conservative collapses seen in a Welsh by-election, with 80% of their 2017 vote share being lost by the Conservatives. Pembrokeshire is sometimes known as "little England beyond Wales" and has a strong small conservative element as a result, but this generally only helps the Conservatives at general election time not local election time.
On another note, the European Parliament recently passed a motion to start an "Article 7" process on Hungary, which would see it stripped of its voting rights on the European council unless its Fidesz-led government stops encouraging anti-immigrant prejudice and lifts excessive restrictions on the media and judiciary, by a vote of 448-197; the group of Conservative MEPs however voted against the motion, with the exception of Nosheena Mobarik (who voted in favour), Sajjad Karim, and Charles Tannock (the latter two abstained). Under Viktor Orban's tenure, antiziganism, anti-Semitism, and Islamophobia have been on the rise in Hungary and this vote hopes to call for a stop to it. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/conservative-orban-hungary-jewish-deputies-board-antisemitism-tory-british-meps-eu-vote-latest-a8535846.html I personally believe this vote was necessary to uphold the fair rule of law and promote equality across Europe, and that despite claims to the contrary it is likely Brexit did play some role in the way the Conservative group of MEPs voted, given that Mr Orban is one of the most Eurosceptic leaders of EU countries not planning to leave the European Union in the near future.
Cambridge Petersfield results were probably affected by a sympathy swing to the Lib Dem candidate (who happens to be a trans woman) after anti-trans remarks were made by the outgoing Labour candidate.
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