My analysis of British local by-elections from 27/9/18
Readers, the results of British local by-elections that took place on 27 September 2018 were as follows:
Lichfield DC, Stowe: Conservative 499 (44.1%, -0.8%), Labour 440 (38.9%,+12.7%), Liberal Democrats 193 (17.0%, -1.9%). [Greens and Something New did not stand]
Nottingham UA, Clifton North: Conservative 1311 (47.7%, +13.8%), Labour 928 (33.8%, -5.0%), Nottingham Independents 307 (11.2%), Liberal Democrats 92 (3.3%), Green 64 (2.3%), Bus Pass Elvis Party 46 (1.7%). Conservative gain from Labour. [UKIP and a different independent did not stand]
Salford MBC, Eccles: Labour 1071 (54.6%, -5.8%), Conservative 474 (24.1%,+2.1%), Liberal Democrats 156 (7.9%, +2.1%), Green 123 (6.3%, -0.1%), UKIP 100 (5.1%, +0.5%), WEP 39 (2.0%). All changes are since May. [TUSC did not stand]
Recently, the Conservatives' loss of a by-election in the ward of Wollaton West, which up to 2015 was their last reliable stronghold in the city of Nottingham, created the impression that they would be wiped out in 2019 and that Labour would make a clean sweep (i.e. win every single council seat) of Nottingham in the 2019 local elections. However, their gain of Clifton North, where they already have a councillor, will mean that a Labour clean sweep of Nottingham is now very unlikely even if Labour is on course to win the last remaining seat in Wollaton West next year. The marginal ward of Clifton North, which will largely be replaced by Clifton West next year due to internal ward boundary changes in Nottingham, was won by the Conservatives (on a swing of 9.4%) because the Labour candidate did not live even near Clifton but the Conservative candidate did live in the ward, as did the Nottingham Independents' candidate. Clifton, the only part of Nottingham south of the River Trent and which was once the largest council estate in Europe, is a community within a community and also includes the upmarket villages of Wilford and Silverdale; locality is therefore a critical factor when it comes to local elections there. The absence of UKIP proved more helpful to the Nottingham Independents than the Conservatives, since the Nottingham Independent candidate formerly stood for UKIP in the same ward. The Conservatives also achieved a swing to them from Labour in Salford, but that was only 4% and there was no realistic chance of Labour losing the very safe ward of Eccles; Salford is just as safely Labour as Nottingham overall, with the exception of the wards of Boothstown & Ellenbrook and Worsley which are safely Conservative.
However, at the same time, the Conservatives nearly lost the safe Lichfield ward of Stowe, holding by only 59 votes against Labour. This is partly because the outgoing councillor had only been elected seven months prior to this by-election, resulting in a low turnout of 23.4%. Safe Conservative wards and constituencies traditionally have higher turnouts than safe Labour wards and constituencies except for those located in central London, so "election fatigue" was clearly a factor in the sharp reduction in the Conservatives' majority, as was tactical voting by voters who had voted for the Green Party or Something New in the February by-election for the same ward.
Lichfield DC, Stowe: Conservative 499 (44.1%, -0.8%), Labour 440 (38.9%,+12.7%), Liberal Democrats 193 (17.0%, -1.9%). [Greens and Something New did not stand]
Nottingham UA, Clifton North: Conservative 1311 (47.7%, +13.8%), Labour 928 (33.8%, -5.0%), Nottingham Independents 307 (11.2%), Liberal Democrats 92 (3.3%), Green 64 (2.3%), Bus Pass Elvis Party 46 (1.7%). Conservative gain from Labour. [UKIP and a different independent did not stand]
Salford MBC, Eccles: Labour 1071 (54.6%, -5.8%), Conservative 474 (24.1%,+2.1%), Liberal Democrats 156 (7.9%, +2.1%), Green 123 (6.3%, -0.1%), UKIP 100 (5.1%, +0.5%), WEP 39 (2.0%). All changes are since May. [TUSC did not stand]
Recently, the Conservatives' loss of a by-election in the ward of Wollaton West, which up to 2015 was their last reliable stronghold in the city of Nottingham, created the impression that they would be wiped out in 2019 and that Labour would make a clean sweep (i.e. win every single council seat) of Nottingham in the 2019 local elections. However, their gain of Clifton North, where they already have a councillor, will mean that a Labour clean sweep of Nottingham is now very unlikely even if Labour is on course to win the last remaining seat in Wollaton West next year. The marginal ward of Clifton North, which will largely be replaced by Clifton West next year due to internal ward boundary changes in Nottingham, was won by the Conservatives (on a swing of 9.4%) because the Labour candidate did not live even near Clifton but the Conservative candidate did live in the ward, as did the Nottingham Independents' candidate. Clifton, the only part of Nottingham south of the River Trent and which was once the largest council estate in Europe, is a community within a community and also includes the upmarket villages of Wilford and Silverdale; locality is therefore a critical factor when it comes to local elections there. The absence of UKIP proved more helpful to the Nottingham Independents than the Conservatives, since the Nottingham Independent candidate formerly stood for UKIP in the same ward. The Conservatives also achieved a swing to them from Labour in Salford, but that was only 4% and there was no realistic chance of Labour losing the very safe ward of Eccles; Salford is just as safely Labour as Nottingham overall, with the exception of the wards of Boothstown & Ellenbrook and Worsley which are safely Conservative.
However, at the same time, the Conservatives nearly lost the safe Lichfield ward of Stowe, holding by only 59 votes against Labour. This is partly because the outgoing councillor had only been elected seven months prior to this by-election, resulting in a low turnout of 23.4%. Safe Conservative wards and constituencies traditionally have higher turnouts than safe Labour wards and constituencies except for those located in central London, so "election fatigue" was clearly a factor in the sharp reduction in the Conservatives' majority, as was tactical voting by voters who had voted for the Green Party or Something New in the February by-election for the same ward.
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