The Slovenian general election of 2018: Cerar convincingly clobbered
Yesterday's Slovene general election delivered a result mirroring that of 2014 in some ways, but on a lesser scale.
The liberal and pro-European Modern Centre Party (formerly the Party of Miro Cerar, who was Prime Minister of Slovenia from 2014 until today), suffered a crushing defeat, polling just 9.75% of the vote and 10 seats compared to the 34.61% and 36 seats it managed in 2014, and consequently it fell from a clear pole position to a miserable fourth behind the Social Democratic Party. The Social Democrats of Slovenia, especially due to the strong and solidified support for The Left (LEVICA, formerly United Left) have made no real recovery since their substantial losses in 2011, where they lost almost 2/3 of their seats and went from pole position to third. Their 2018 result of 9.92% is in fact worse than their 2011 result and they have only recovered the seats they lost in 2014. LEVICA, meanwhile, increased their seat total to 9, only one behind either SMC or the SD. The youthful activism of LEVICA's leader, Luka Mesec (who is just 30 years of age at this time of writing) proved to be a key factor behind their rise in support, as are their achievements in the Slovene Assembly despite having only won 6 seats in 2014 as United Left.
Janez Jansa, whose corruption charges were overturned by the Constitutional Court of Slovenia in April 2015 thus allowing him to return to politics, managed to lead the Slovenian Democratic Party to pole position, despite only increasing its 2014 seat total by 4 to 25. Under Janez' leadership, the SDS has either finished top or runner-up in Slovene elections since 2004, and due to its anti-elitist and populist rhetoric has established a strong foundation similar to Hungary's Fidesz, whose platform it has shifted towards. Janez in fact identifies with Viktor Orban, and this, along with the Slovenian National Party (a Slovene equivalent of UKIP) being able to exceed the 4% threshold against prior expectations (it won 4.24% and 4 seats), prevented it from making more gains despite the collapse of the Moderate Centre Party.
The Christian Democratic New Slovenia Party (NSi), found itself unable to make much progress in terms of capturing SMC's base, winning only 7 seats this year for an increase of just 2 on its 2014 total. It also found itself outnumbered and sidelined when trying to capture voters leaning towards the more conservative SDS. Despite Alenka Bratusek having briefly served as the first ever female Prime Minister of Slovenia, and despite its liberal stance, the Stranka AB list failed to make an impact and won just 5 seats. This is due to the better-known List of Marjan Sarec, a famous Slovene actor and comedian, managing to attract more media attention and using its reformist platform to win 13 seats, giving it second place. "Reformist" parties regularly spring up in Eastern European politics, however, and usually fail to achieve a large proportion of their promised reforms once in office. The Democratic Party of Pensioners in Slovenia, meanwhile, as the junior coalition partner of SMC, lost 5 seats although this is only half of its seat total of 2014; SMC's loss of 26 seats represents a loss of 72% of its 2014 seat total; DeSUS' voter base is much more stable being a long-established party, like SDS and SD. SMC is a relative newcomer which won a lot of its votes from former supporters of the now defunct Positive Slovenia.
Three parties which secured representation within the course of the 2014-18 Slovene Assembly, namely Good Country, the Greens of Slovenia, and United Left and Unity, which was formed by United Left members who fell out with the faction that established LEVICA, lost their seats. Good Country, an anti-corruption and anti-elitist list, lacked the credibility needed to compete with SDS, which frequently uses anti-elite attacks in its campaigns much like Fidesz once did in Hungary before its decisive landslide victory of 2010. For example, SDS frequently refers to Murgle, a wealthy district in the Slovene capital of Ljubljana home to an old political elite, in its calls for change. As a result, Good Country achieved only 1.53% of the vote. This was however better what was achieved by the Andrej Cus and Greens list, which nevertheless polled the best Green result in Slovenia for years at 1.07%. United Left and Unity only managed 0.56%, partly because the list it submitted in the 5th constituency was rejected for not meeting the gender quota of candidate lists. In Slovenia, all candidate lists must be at least 35% female to qualify for the ballot, and the United Right Party were caught out by this requirement as well in two of the Slovene constituencies. The agrarian and centrist Slovene People's Party, which only missed representation by 0.05% in 2014, slipped back to 2.63%. In Europe, the agricultural population is declining slowly but surely and Slovenia is no exception, and it did not present any policies that would particularly stand out, whereas its Finnish Centre Party counterpart did with Universal Basic Income. The Pirate Party of Slovenia's support rose to 2.15%, an increase of only 0.81% and not enough to win any seats; clearly the inspirational success of the Czech Pirate Party could not motivate enough like-minded voters. The electoral wooden spoon went to the Forward Slovenia party, who only submitted a list in one constituency and thus polled the grand sum of 169 votes, or 0.02%. The direct democratic Party of Slovenian People finished last among the lists that submitted valid lists in all Slovene constituencies with only 1,170 votes and 0.13%.
Turnout only reached 52.01% representing an increase of 0.28% from 2014. Proportional representation does not guarantee high turnouts in elections even with fair thresholds and a high chance for change. This year's Slovene Assembly is particularly fragmented due to SDS topping the poll with only 25 seats and with 9 parties represented in the Slovene Assembly despite a 4% threshold being in force. The majority of opposition parties have also now stated they will not permit a coalition led by Janez Jansa, and Marjan Sarec will find it very difficult to form a government if he is to be Slovenia's next Prime Minister as he will need at least four other parties to form a majority coalition (45 seats are needed; the representatives of the Italian and Hungarian minorities in Slovenia who have one reserved seat apiece never join governmental coalitions). It is likely that fresh elections will be called in Slovenia within less than one year from now; such would be the instability of any viable coalition that can form a majority of seats.
The liberal and pro-European Modern Centre Party (formerly the Party of Miro Cerar, who was Prime Minister of Slovenia from 2014 until today), suffered a crushing defeat, polling just 9.75% of the vote and 10 seats compared to the 34.61% and 36 seats it managed in 2014, and consequently it fell from a clear pole position to a miserable fourth behind the Social Democratic Party. The Social Democrats of Slovenia, especially due to the strong and solidified support for The Left (LEVICA, formerly United Left) have made no real recovery since their substantial losses in 2011, where they lost almost 2/3 of their seats and went from pole position to third. Their 2018 result of 9.92% is in fact worse than their 2011 result and they have only recovered the seats they lost in 2014. LEVICA, meanwhile, increased their seat total to 9, only one behind either SMC or the SD. The youthful activism of LEVICA's leader, Luka Mesec (who is just 30 years of age at this time of writing) proved to be a key factor behind their rise in support, as are their achievements in the Slovene Assembly despite having only won 6 seats in 2014 as United Left.
Janez Jansa, whose corruption charges were overturned by the Constitutional Court of Slovenia in April 2015 thus allowing him to return to politics, managed to lead the Slovenian Democratic Party to pole position, despite only increasing its 2014 seat total by 4 to 25. Under Janez' leadership, the SDS has either finished top or runner-up in Slovene elections since 2004, and due to its anti-elitist and populist rhetoric has established a strong foundation similar to Hungary's Fidesz, whose platform it has shifted towards. Janez in fact identifies with Viktor Orban, and this, along with the Slovenian National Party (a Slovene equivalent of UKIP) being able to exceed the 4% threshold against prior expectations (it won 4.24% and 4 seats), prevented it from making more gains despite the collapse of the Moderate Centre Party.
The Christian Democratic New Slovenia Party (NSi), found itself unable to make much progress in terms of capturing SMC's base, winning only 7 seats this year for an increase of just 2 on its 2014 total. It also found itself outnumbered and sidelined when trying to capture voters leaning towards the more conservative SDS. Despite Alenka Bratusek having briefly served as the first ever female Prime Minister of Slovenia, and despite its liberal stance, the Stranka AB list failed to make an impact and won just 5 seats. This is due to the better-known List of Marjan Sarec, a famous Slovene actor and comedian, managing to attract more media attention and using its reformist platform to win 13 seats, giving it second place. "Reformist" parties regularly spring up in Eastern European politics, however, and usually fail to achieve a large proportion of their promised reforms once in office. The Democratic Party of Pensioners in Slovenia, meanwhile, as the junior coalition partner of SMC, lost 5 seats although this is only half of its seat total of 2014; SMC's loss of 26 seats represents a loss of 72% of its 2014 seat total; DeSUS' voter base is much more stable being a long-established party, like SDS and SD. SMC is a relative newcomer which won a lot of its votes from former supporters of the now defunct Positive Slovenia.
Three parties which secured representation within the course of the 2014-18 Slovene Assembly, namely Good Country, the Greens of Slovenia, and United Left and Unity, which was formed by United Left members who fell out with the faction that established LEVICA, lost their seats. Good Country, an anti-corruption and anti-elitist list, lacked the credibility needed to compete with SDS, which frequently uses anti-elite attacks in its campaigns much like Fidesz once did in Hungary before its decisive landslide victory of 2010. For example, SDS frequently refers to Murgle, a wealthy district in the Slovene capital of Ljubljana home to an old political elite, in its calls for change. As a result, Good Country achieved only 1.53% of the vote. This was however better what was achieved by the Andrej Cus and Greens list, which nevertheless polled the best Green result in Slovenia for years at 1.07%. United Left and Unity only managed 0.56%, partly because the list it submitted in the 5th constituency was rejected for not meeting the gender quota of candidate lists. In Slovenia, all candidate lists must be at least 35% female to qualify for the ballot, and the United Right Party were caught out by this requirement as well in two of the Slovene constituencies. The agrarian and centrist Slovene People's Party, which only missed representation by 0.05% in 2014, slipped back to 2.63%. In Europe, the agricultural population is declining slowly but surely and Slovenia is no exception, and it did not present any policies that would particularly stand out, whereas its Finnish Centre Party counterpart did with Universal Basic Income. The Pirate Party of Slovenia's support rose to 2.15%, an increase of only 0.81% and not enough to win any seats; clearly the inspirational success of the Czech Pirate Party could not motivate enough like-minded voters. The electoral wooden spoon went to the Forward Slovenia party, who only submitted a list in one constituency and thus polled the grand sum of 169 votes, or 0.02%. The direct democratic Party of Slovenian People finished last among the lists that submitted valid lists in all Slovene constituencies with only 1,170 votes and 0.13%.
Turnout only reached 52.01% representing an increase of 0.28% from 2014. Proportional representation does not guarantee high turnouts in elections even with fair thresholds and a high chance for change. This year's Slovene Assembly is particularly fragmented due to SDS topping the poll with only 25 seats and with 9 parties represented in the Slovene Assembly despite a 4% threshold being in force. The majority of opposition parties have also now stated they will not permit a coalition led by Janez Jansa, and Marjan Sarec will find it very difficult to form a government if he is to be Slovenia's next Prime Minister as he will need at least four other parties to form a majority coalition (45 seats are needed; the representatives of the Italian and Hungarian minorities in Slovenia who have one reserved seat apiece never join governmental coalitions). It is likely that fresh elections will be called in Slovenia within less than one year from now; such would be the instability of any viable coalition that can form a majority of seats.
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