Predictions for round two of the 2018 FIFA World Cup
Normally, I deal with political analysis and psephology (the study of elections, voting patterns, and voter behaviour). However, the globally popular sport of football is definitely worthy of analysis, especially with the shock results we have seen so far in the 2018 World Cup in Russia and the fact it is certainly more competitive than politics in many countries.
The second round of the 2018 World Cup will be one of the tightest in history, and one of the most difficult to predict correctly. Many good teams have not played up to scratch (and two of the best European football teams, from the Netherlands and Italy, did not even qualify this year, and I missed their presence), and several of those eliminated had very good chances but failed to seize the opportunity when they needed to, or failed to bolster their defence strongly enough, as seen by the number of own goals scored in this tournament so far and the number of injury-time goals in the group stage. In fact, of the 122 goals scored in all matches in the first round, 9 (7.4%) were own goals and 17 (14%, notably including every goal scored by South Korea in this tournament) were scored only in injury time (mostly in the second half but sometimes in injury time of the first half as well), including 2 out of the 9 own goals. Also, as many as five group stage matches were decided solely by goals scored in injury time (both halves).
So how will each of the eight second round matches go?
France vs. Argentina (today at 3pm): France have been consistently playing well, if rather steadily, whereas Argentina clearly need to try harder. They only saved themselves from elimination in the last minute of their game against Nigeria last week and their defence leaves much to be desired. France need to play more aggressively, though-they let Denmark off too easily in their last group game knowing both would go through if there was a draw. Nevertheless, France will likely push forward, although the winning margin is not likely to exceed two goals either way. Predicted winner: France.
Uruguay vs Portugal (today at 7pm): Both teams have been playing well and both have excellent strikers. Uruguay has Suarez and Portugal has Ronaldo. This is the most unpredictable of these matches but based on the fact Uruguay's play has been getting better whereas Portugal's has slowed down somewhat since their 3-3 draw against an equally strong Spanish side, I believe Uruguay will win although if it goes to penalties, Portugal will have the advantage. Predicted winner: Uruguay.
Spain vs Russia (1 July, 3pm): Spain have had to work very hard indeed to secure their second round place whereas Russia, the hosts, had a much easier group to deal with, apart from two-time champions Uruguay who thrashed them 3-0 last week. And it appears Russia will be routed by Spain this time. Predicted winner: Spain.
Croatia vs Denmark (1 July, 7pm): Denmark's play so far has been rather lacklustre and too cautious, whereas Croatia have seized the bull by the horns, becoming one of only three teams to win all three of their group stage matches this year. Croatia will likely continue their excellent style of play and push Denmark out of the World Cup without any trouble. Predicted winner: Croatia.
Brazil vs Mexico (2 July, 3pm): Ever since their surprise 1-0 win against Germany, Mexico has been rather overconfident and in their group Sweden taught them a valuable lesson last week with a 3-0 win against them. Brazil may have started off relatively poorly with only a draw against Switzerland but the five-times champions (and the only country to have appeared in every single World Cup finals) picked up the pace from there securing pole position in their group (especially after only winning against Costa Rica in injury time). Predicted winner: Brazil.
Belgium vs Japan (2 July, 7pm): Japan only made it through to the second round by receiving fewer yellow cards than Senegal, who squandered their good chances and paid the penalty. Belgium has done much better, and have for only the second time in their history of participating in finals of the FIFA World Cup won all 3 games in their group. Even against weaker teams they have been determined to try their best, and their game against Japan will prove to be no exception. Predicted winner: Belgium.
Sweden vs Switzerland (3 July, 3pm): Switzerland could have done better in the group stages, especially since it was their fault they only drew against Costa Rica-that injury time goal which secured Costa Rica a consolation point was an own goal by Swiss defender Somner. Sweden have had an excellent performance so far, losing to Germany only in injury time and managing an unexpectedly good win against Mexico. Sweden will likely play hard and secure a good win against the Swiss. Predicted winner: Sweden.
England vs Colombia (3 July, 7pm): England captain and current golden boot holder Harry Kane, having rested for the England vs. Belgium game, will return for this decisive clash which gives England excellent chances. However, England did not seize on a golden opportunity in their game against Belgium which cost them dearly-they must seize every opportunity they can to secure a win, especially with England's terrible record in penalty shootouts at World Cups. Colombia topped their group but have been rather lucky given Poland's poor defence and Senegal's failure to capitalise on their chances. On that basis, the odds are that England will win although the result is by no means assured. Predicted winner: England.
The second round of the 2018 World Cup will be one of the tightest in history, and one of the most difficult to predict correctly. Many good teams have not played up to scratch (and two of the best European football teams, from the Netherlands and Italy, did not even qualify this year, and I missed their presence), and several of those eliminated had very good chances but failed to seize the opportunity when they needed to, or failed to bolster their defence strongly enough, as seen by the number of own goals scored in this tournament so far and the number of injury-time goals in the group stage. In fact, of the 122 goals scored in all matches in the first round, 9 (7.4%) were own goals and 17 (14%, notably including every goal scored by South Korea in this tournament) were scored only in injury time (mostly in the second half but sometimes in injury time of the first half as well), including 2 out of the 9 own goals. Also, as many as five group stage matches were decided solely by goals scored in injury time (both halves).
So how will each of the eight second round matches go?
France vs. Argentina (today at 3pm): France have been consistently playing well, if rather steadily, whereas Argentina clearly need to try harder. They only saved themselves from elimination in the last minute of their game against Nigeria last week and their defence leaves much to be desired. France need to play more aggressively, though-they let Denmark off too easily in their last group game knowing both would go through if there was a draw. Nevertheless, France will likely push forward, although the winning margin is not likely to exceed two goals either way. Predicted winner: France.
Uruguay vs Portugal (today at 7pm): Both teams have been playing well and both have excellent strikers. Uruguay has Suarez and Portugal has Ronaldo. This is the most unpredictable of these matches but based on the fact Uruguay's play has been getting better whereas Portugal's has slowed down somewhat since their 3-3 draw against an equally strong Spanish side, I believe Uruguay will win although if it goes to penalties, Portugal will have the advantage. Predicted winner: Uruguay.
Spain vs Russia (1 July, 3pm): Spain have had to work very hard indeed to secure their second round place whereas Russia, the hosts, had a much easier group to deal with, apart from two-time champions Uruguay who thrashed them 3-0 last week. And it appears Russia will be routed by Spain this time. Predicted winner: Spain.
Croatia vs Denmark (1 July, 7pm): Denmark's play so far has been rather lacklustre and too cautious, whereas Croatia have seized the bull by the horns, becoming one of only three teams to win all three of their group stage matches this year. Croatia will likely continue their excellent style of play and push Denmark out of the World Cup without any trouble. Predicted winner: Croatia.
Brazil vs Mexico (2 July, 3pm): Ever since their surprise 1-0 win against Germany, Mexico has been rather overconfident and in their group Sweden taught them a valuable lesson last week with a 3-0 win against them. Brazil may have started off relatively poorly with only a draw against Switzerland but the five-times champions (and the only country to have appeared in every single World Cup finals) picked up the pace from there securing pole position in their group (especially after only winning against Costa Rica in injury time). Predicted winner: Brazil.
Belgium vs Japan (2 July, 7pm): Japan only made it through to the second round by receiving fewer yellow cards than Senegal, who squandered their good chances and paid the penalty. Belgium has done much better, and have for only the second time in their history of participating in finals of the FIFA World Cup won all 3 games in their group. Even against weaker teams they have been determined to try their best, and their game against Japan will prove to be no exception. Predicted winner: Belgium.
Sweden vs Switzerland (3 July, 3pm): Switzerland could have done better in the group stages, especially since it was their fault they only drew against Costa Rica-that injury time goal which secured Costa Rica a consolation point was an own goal by Swiss defender Somner. Sweden have had an excellent performance so far, losing to Germany only in injury time and managing an unexpectedly good win against Mexico. Sweden will likely play hard and secure a good win against the Swiss. Predicted winner: Sweden.
England vs Colombia (3 July, 7pm): England captain and current golden boot holder Harry Kane, having rested for the England vs. Belgium game, will return for this decisive clash which gives England excellent chances. However, England did not seize on a golden opportunity in their game against Belgium which cost them dearly-they must seize every opportunity they can to secure a win, especially with England's terrible record in penalty shootouts at World Cups. Colombia topped their group but have been rather lucky given Poland's poor defence and Senegal's failure to capitalise on their chances. On that basis, the odds are that England will win although the result is by no means assured. Predicted winner: England.
Comments
Post a Comment