My analysis of the Lewisham East by-election
Readers, in case you are not already aware, the results of the Lewisham East by-election were as follows:
Rosamund Adoo-Kissi-Debrah, Green Party, 788 (3.6%, +1.9%)
Ross Archer, Conservative, 3,161 (14.4%, -8.6%)
Charles Carey (no description), 37 (0.1%)
Janet Daby, Labour, 11,033 (50.2%, -17.7%)
Massimo DiMambro, Democrats & Veterans, 67 (0.3%)
Sean Finch, Libertarian Party, 38 (0.1%)
Patrick Gray, Radical Party, 20 (0.1%)
Thomas Hall, Young People's Party, 18 (0.1%)
Alan "Howling Laud" Hope, OMRLP, 93 (0.4%)
David Kurten, UKIP, 380 (1.7%, +0.0%)
Maureen Martin, Christian Peoples' Alliance, 168 (0.8%, +0.3%)
Mandu Reid, Women's Equality Party, 506 (2.3%)
Lucy Salek, Liberal Democrats, 5,404 (24.6%, +20.2%)
Anne-Marie Waters, For Britain Movement, 266 (1.2%)
As expected from the beginning, Labour held the seat, although their quiescence on the key parts of the EU withdrawal bill, as well as the Liberal Democrats' campaigning almost from the moment the by-election was announced, resulted in a nearly 19% swing from Labour to Liberal Democrat, the largest such by-election swing in that direction since the Dunfermline & West Fife by-election of 2006 (won by the Liberal Democrats from Labour). By comparison in 2017, every constituency with the Labour and Liberal Democrats in the top two resulted in considerable swings to Labour, even with incumbent MPs in place.
In Lewisham East specifically, last year the Liberal Democrats lost their deposit despite the constituency voting Remain by a nearly 2-1 margin, due to the pro-Labour "Corbyn effect" which affected many pro-Remain seats that were already safely Labour, a notable exception being Vauxhall. As was seen in the most recent local elections, this effect has been wearing off for some time and the Liberal Democrats' quicker selection gave them a head start over Labour, whose selection did not finish until five days before the close of nominations and received negative coverage for arguments about supposed Corbynite "stacking" to make sure only a left-wing candidate would be selected. To make matters worse, the chair of the Lewisham East Constituency Labour Party was also suspended the day after the candidates for the by-election had been announced. At the end of the day, however, a swing of 31.8% would have been needed by the Liberal Democrats and with polling relatively unchanged from the results of the June 2017 general election, it was not going to happen in such a short space of time. Janet Daby's opposition to a hard Brexit as well as a rather ambivalent attitude towards the hard left also helped soften the blow dealt by the Liberal Democrats.
The Green Party did well in bringing the important issue of air pollution to the table, since Lewisham, like all inner London boroughs, has levels of air pollution greatly in excess of legal limits. In particular, the Green candidate, Rosamund "Rosie" Adoo-Kissi-Debrah lost her daughter as a direct result of air pollution levels in 2013, and has been campaigning for cleaner air in London ever since. 10,000 people die prematurely every year as a result of dirty air on London's streets.
Despite her excellent and passionate campaign, Rosie did not save her deposit but managed to more than double the Green vote share nonetheless. The Green Party could have announced Rosie's candidature earlier since media coverage is one of the most crucial factors in by-election success. However, the substantial Liberal Democrat campaign also dampened the Greens' rise, just as Sarah Teather's victory in the Brent East by-election of 2003 caused a notable drop in the Green vote share where in 2001 the Greens nearly saved their deposit (they only saved 9 deposits in England and Wales in 2001) despite London Assembly member Noel Lynch being the Green candidate then. The Conservatives, who received very little coverage in this by-election campaign by comparison, were pushed into third place as a result of tactical voting. This is in the same Lewisham East seat that was once represented by Colin Moynihan, an Olympic rower who was Conservative MP there from 1983 to 1992. How things have changed in the last 30 years!
You would think that with two UKIP splinter groups standing, the already low UKIP vote would sink like a stone. In fact, David Kurten managed the same vote share as in 2017, 1.7%. The notorious For Britain leader, Anne-Marie Waters, whose racist views sparked a call to ban her from by-election hustings, did not do much worse with 266 votes, partly due to being able to capture more extreme voters who considered UKIP too soft, and who would likely have voted for the British National Party had they fielded a candidate in this by-election. DVP candidate Massimo DiMambro, however, polled the derisory vote of 67, behind even Howling Laud Hope of the Monster Raving Loony Party; the only notable thing about him was that he was UKIP's candidate for Lewisham Deptford in 2015. All three were beaten by the Women's Equality Party, standing in a parliamentary by-election for the first time having stood 7 candidates. Even though Lewisham East does not have nearly as much potential for progressive or radical parties as its neighbouring constituency, Lewisham Deptford, Mandu Reid still polled 506 votes.
Of the other candidates, only Maureen Martin of the Christian Peoples' Alliance, which has been standing in Lewisham for a long time, managed to beat Howling Laud Hope. She also increased the CPA's vote share, a rare event in a British parliamentary by-election since they have never stood more than 31 candidates in a British general election, having set the record only last year. The wooden spoon award went to the Young People's Party, whose candidate, Thomas Hall, achieved 18 votes, although coming bottom of the poll is par for the course for the YPP. This was less than half the total of elderly independent Charles Carey, who had last stood in Lewisham East in February 1974, the first election at which the seat was contested (it was created from parts of Lewisham North and Lewisham South), and was standing to get legislation.gov updated. That site is rather obscure even to political activists, so his vote total of as high as 37 is rather surprising.
Due to the seat being very safely Labour, turnout dropped from 69.4% to a miserable 33.3%, another sign of the "Corbyn effect" fading away. Younger voters were clearly less enthused to vote than they were in 2017, and regular media attention failed to prevent such a large drop in turnout to the point only a third of the voters of Lewisham East bothered coming to the polling station. A swing of 19% from Labour to Liberal Democrat would only recover four seats once gained from Labour by the Liberal Democrats since 1983: Sheffield Hallam, Leeds North West, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, and Cambridge. However, with Jared O'Mara having lost the Labour whip last year, and having not attended Parliament for months, a Sheffield Hallam by-election is probable during the course of this Parliament.
Rosamund Adoo-Kissi-Debrah, Green Party, 788 (3.6%, +1.9%)
Ross Archer, Conservative, 3,161 (14.4%, -8.6%)
Charles Carey (no description), 37 (0.1%)
Janet Daby, Labour, 11,033 (50.2%, -17.7%)
Massimo DiMambro, Democrats & Veterans, 67 (0.3%)
Sean Finch, Libertarian Party, 38 (0.1%)
Patrick Gray, Radical Party, 20 (0.1%)
Thomas Hall, Young People's Party, 18 (0.1%)
Alan "Howling Laud" Hope, OMRLP, 93 (0.4%)
David Kurten, UKIP, 380 (1.7%, +0.0%)
Maureen Martin, Christian Peoples' Alliance, 168 (0.8%, +0.3%)
Mandu Reid, Women's Equality Party, 506 (2.3%)
Lucy Salek, Liberal Democrats, 5,404 (24.6%, +20.2%)
Anne-Marie Waters, For Britain Movement, 266 (1.2%)
As expected from the beginning, Labour held the seat, although their quiescence on the key parts of the EU withdrawal bill, as well as the Liberal Democrats' campaigning almost from the moment the by-election was announced, resulted in a nearly 19% swing from Labour to Liberal Democrat, the largest such by-election swing in that direction since the Dunfermline & West Fife by-election of 2006 (won by the Liberal Democrats from Labour). By comparison in 2017, every constituency with the Labour and Liberal Democrats in the top two resulted in considerable swings to Labour, even with incumbent MPs in place.
In Lewisham East specifically, last year the Liberal Democrats lost their deposit despite the constituency voting Remain by a nearly 2-1 margin, due to the pro-Labour "Corbyn effect" which affected many pro-Remain seats that were already safely Labour, a notable exception being Vauxhall. As was seen in the most recent local elections, this effect has been wearing off for some time and the Liberal Democrats' quicker selection gave them a head start over Labour, whose selection did not finish until five days before the close of nominations and received negative coverage for arguments about supposed Corbynite "stacking" to make sure only a left-wing candidate would be selected. To make matters worse, the chair of the Lewisham East Constituency Labour Party was also suspended the day after the candidates for the by-election had been announced. At the end of the day, however, a swing of 31.8% would have been needed by the Liberal Democrats and with polling relatively unchanged from the results of the June 2017 general election, it was not going to happen in such a short space of time. Janet Daby's opposition to a hard Brexit as well as a rather ambivalent attitude towards the hard left also helped soften the blow dealt by the Liberal Democrats.
The Green Party did well in bringing the important issue of air pollution to the table, since Lewisham, like all inner London boroughs, has levels of air pollution greatly in excess of legal limits. In particular, the Green candidate, Rosamund "Rosie" Adoo-Kissi-Debrah lost her daughter as a direct result of air pollution levels in 2013, and has been campaigning for cleaner air in London ever since. 10,000 people die prematurely every year as a result of dirty air on London's streets.
Despite her excellent and passionate campaign, Rosie did not save her deposit but managed to more than double the Green vote share nonetheless. The Green Party could have announced Rosie's candidature earlier since media coverage is one of the most crucial factors in by-election success. However, the substantial Liberal Democrat campaign also dampened the Greens' rise, just as Sarah Teather's victory in the Brent East by-election of 2003 caused a notable drop in the Green vote share where in 2001 the Greens nearly saved their deposit (they only saved 9 deposits in England and Wales in 2001) despite London Assembly member Noel Lynch being the Green candidate then. The Conservatives, who received very little coverage in this by-election campaign by comparison, were pushed into third place as a result of tactical voting. This is in the same Lewisham East seat that was once represented by Colin Moynihan, an Olympic rower who was Conservative MP there from 1983 to 1992. How things have changed in the last 30 years!
You would think that with two UKIP splinter groups standing, the already low UKIP vote would sink like a stone. In fact, David Kurten managed the same vote share as in 2017, 1.7%. The notorious For Britain leader, Anne-Marie Waters, whose racist views sparked a call to ban her from by-election hustings, did not do much worse with 266 votes, partly due to being able to capture more extreme voters who considered UKIP too soft, and who would likely have voted for the British National Party had they fielded a candidate in this by-election. DVP candidate Massimo DiMambro, however, polled the derisory vote of 67, behind even Howling Laud Hope of the Monster Raving Loony Party; the only notable thing about him was that he was UKIP's candidate for Lewisham Deptford in 2015. All three were beaten by the Women's Equality Party, standing in a parliamentary by-election for the first time having stood 7 candidates. Even though Lewisham East does not have nearly as much potential for progressive or radical parties as its neighbouring constituency, Lewisham Deptford, Mandu Reid still polled 506 votes.
Of the other candidates, only Maureen Martin of the Christian Peoples' Alliance, which has been standing in Lewisham for a long time, managed to beat Howling Laud Hope. She also increased the CPA's vote share, a rare event in a British parliamentary by-election since they have never stood more than 31 candidates in a British general election, having set the record only last year. The wooden spoon award went to the Young People's Party, whose candidate, Thomas Hall, achieved 18 votes, although coming bottom of the poll is par for the course for the YPP. This was less than half the total of elderly independent Charles Carey, who had last stood in Lewisham East in February 1974, the first election at which the seat was contested (it was created from parts of Lewisham North and Lewisham South), and was standing to get legislation.gov updated. That site is rather obscure even to political activists, so his vote total of as high as 37 is rather surprising.
Due to the seat being very safely Labour, turnout dropped from 69.4% to a miserable 33.3%, another sign of the "Corbyn effect" fading away. Younger voters were clearly less enthused to vote than they were in 2017, and regular media attention failed to prevent such a large drop in turnout to the point only a third of the voters of Lewisham East bothered coming to the polling station. A swing of 19% from Labour to Liberal Democrat would only recover four seats once gained from Labour by the Liberal Democrats since 1983: Sheffield Hallam, Leeds North West, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, and Cambridge. However, with Jared O'Mara having lost the Labour whip last year, and having not attended Parliament for months, a Sheffield Hallam by-election is probable during the course of this Parliament.
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