My analysis of local by-elections (and deferred elections from 14/6/18 and 21/6/18
Readers, the results of local by-elections from this week, as well as last week (which I did not cover due to the time required for analysis of the more important Lewisham East parliamentary by-election) in England were as follows:
(14/6/18):
Doncaster MBC, Town: Labour 1084 (46.8%, +7.7%), Yorkshire Party 570 (24.6%, -1.1%), Green 294 (12.5%, -1.2%), Conservative 260 (11.4%, -10.2%), Liberal Democrats 66 (2.8%), Independent (Pendry) 43 (1.9%).
Southwark LBC, London Bridge & West Bermondsey (deferred election): Liberal Democrats 1340/1281/1270 (44.4%), Labour 1239/1215/1171 (41.1%), Conservative 221/219/205 (7.3%), Green 215/191 (7.1%). Notional Liberal Democrat gain from Labour (new ward created for 2018 elections).
(21/6/18):
Brent LBC, Willesden Green (deferred election): Labour 1683/1679/1618 (67.2%, +24.2%), Green 289/256/250 (11.5%, -1.7%), Conservative 280/237/218 (11.2%, +4.2%), Liberal Democrats 254/189/184 (10.1%, -5.7%).
Basildon BC, Lee Chapel North: Labour 612 (57.4%, +20.0%), Conservative 267 (25.0%, +2.7%), UKIP 145 (13.6%, -22.4%), BNP 42 (3.9%).
Basildon BC, Pitsea South East: Labour 718 (46.1%, +11.2%), Conservative 710 (45.6%,+16.1%), UKIP 130 (8.3%, -27.4%). Labour gain from UKIP.
Basingstoke & Deane BC, Kempshott: Conservative 884 (60.4%, -4.0%), Labour 475 (32.5%, +13.4%), Liberal Democrats 105 (7.1%). All changes are since 2016. [UKIP did not stand]
Charnwood BC, Quorn & Mountsorrel Castle: Conservative 719 (51.5%, -7.7%), Labour 305 (21.8%, -3.1%), Liberal Democrats 233 (16.7%), UKIP 139 (10.0%, -3.8%).
Cherwell DC, Bicester West: Independent (Broad) 877 (40.5%), Conservative 716 (33.0%, +16.0%), Labour 439 (20.2%, +8.3%), Green 72 (3.3%, -1.7%), Liberal Democrats 64 (3.0%). Independent gain from Conservative; all changes are since 2016. [UKIP did not stand]
Fenland DC, Birch: Conservative 326 (62.1%, +5.9%), Liberal Democrats 113 (21.5%, +5.9%), Independent 86 (16.4%).
South Northamptonshire DC, Astwell: Conservative 319 (76.9%, -0.9%), Labour 96 (23.1%, +0.9%).
South Northamptonshire DC, Whittlewood: Liberal Democrats 366 (56.6%), Conservative 236 (36.5%), Labour 44 (6.8%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative who was elected unopposed in 2015.
Watford BC, Oxhey: Liberal Democrats 828 (55.3%, -3.5%), Conservative 420 (28.1%, +4.7%), Labour 248 (16.6%, -1.2%). All changes are since this May.
West Somerset DC, Alcombe: Liberal Democrats 256 (39.2%), Conservative 177 (27.1%, +0.9%), Independent (Stephens) 130 (19.9%), Labour 90 (13.8%, -5.4%). Liberal Democrat gain from UKIP, who did not stand in this by-election.
The Liberal Democrats are on a high note once again, although this is currently the usual for British local by-elections. Their win in Alcombe, West Somerset deserves particular attention amongst this set of by-elections. Last month, a parliamentary Order in Council approving the merger of West Somerset and Taunton Deane councils was approved, meaning this could be the very last by-election that takes place in West Somerset; elections to the new council take place in May 2019. Even though the merger is felt by many as necessary due to the small size of West Somerset council (it is in fact the smallest non-unitary district in England, excluding the sui generis cases of the City of London and the Isles of Scilly) and the lack of central government funding, it is resulting in an anti-Conservative backlash by voters protective of their local identity, and feel the merger is a takeover by Taunton Deane, which has nearly three times the population of West Somerset. Echoes of the creation of Hereford & Worcester and its resistance by Herefordshire, which managed to become separate once more in 1997, abound. The fact a recognised Independent stood did not help the Conservatives' cause either, and the absence of a Green candidate, as usual, helped the Liberal Democrats win the ward. At the same time, they managed to win one of the safest Conservative wards in South Northamptonshire, one of the most safely Conservative districts in England. Whittlewood ward went uncontested in 2011 despite having been represented by a Labour councillor from 1999-2007, although South Northamptonshire has a reputation for electing large numbers of councillors unopposed. Within South Northamptonshire, the 2015 election resulted in 14 unopposed councillors alone and the number of unopposed councillors in each election is usually at least 10. This win happened due to the previous incumbent being disqualified for non-attendance and failing to do anything for the community. In rural areas, especially those cut off from surrounding areas due to a lack of public transport and long road distances (South Northamptonshire is one of only a handful of districts without a single train station), candidates are judged more by their standing in the community and what they have done (or what they have failed to do) than their party label. The Liberal Democrats also managed to last week win all three seats of the knife-edge marginal new ward of London Bridge & West Bermondsey (whose election was deferred by the death of longstanding former Conservative councillor Toby Eckersley), with the last-placed Liberal Democrat beating the first-placed Labour by only 31 votes. The Oxhey by-election was the only minor setback for them this week, where the Conservatives managed a 4.1% swing in their favour.
The Green Party did well given that it only stood in 1 of the 10 local by-elections (plus the deferred election in Willesden Green) managing to gain second place in Willesden Green in spite of the Make Willesden Green vote not transferring to them but rather to Labour and to a lesser extent the Conservatives. They also managed to hold onto third place in Town ward, Doncaster, despite a Liberal Democrat intervention and they had to contend with the Yorkshire Party's Chris Whitwood, who has recently built up a notable personal vote in Doncaster, absorbing much of the anti-Labour vote.
Labour did well when the Liberal Democrats were not in contention, as aptly proven in both Basildon by-elections, neither of which had a Liberal Democrat candidate. The Conservatives gained control of Basildon council last month but this did not help them hold Pitsea South East against Labour, nor did it enable them to make progress in the normally reliably Labour ward of Lee Chapel North. Labour being divided over the EU Withdrawal Bill proved to be no obstacle to Labour's success in these by-elections either.
In Bicester West, the Independent was endorsed by sitting Independent councillor Les Sibley (formerly a Labour councillor for that ward), and the said Les Sibley managed more votes than all three Conservative candidates in Bicester West ward put together back in 2016, even accounting for the fact two of those Conservatives won the other two seats in said Bicester West ward. The Conservatives are normally only challengeable by known independents in Bicester, making that Independent's win significant.
(14/6/18):
Doncaster MBC, Town: Labour 1084 (46.8%, +7.7%), Yorkshire Party 570 (24.6%, -1.1%), Green 294 (12.5%, -1.2%), Conservative 260 (11.4%, -10.2%), Liberal Democrats 66 (2.8%), Independent (Pendry) 43 (1.9%).
Southwark LBC, London Bridge & West Bermondsey (deferred election): Liberal Democrats 1340/1281/1270 (44.4%), Labour 1239/1215/1171 (41.1%), Conservative 221/219/205 (7.3%), Green 215/191 (7.1%). Notional Liberal Democrat gain from Labour (new ward created for 2018 elections).
(21/6/18):
Brent LBC, Willesden Green (deferred election): Labour 1683/1679/1618 (67.2%, +24.2%), Green 289/256/250 (11.5%, -1.7%), Conservative 280/237/218 (11.2%, +4.2%), Liberal Democrats 254/189/184 (10.1%, -5.7%).
Basildon BC, Lee Chapel North: Labour 612 (57.4%, +20.0%), Conservative 267 (25.0%, +2.7%), UKIP 145 (13.6%, -22.4%), BNP 42 (3.9%).
Basildon BC, Pitsea South East: Labour 718 (46.1%, +11.2%), Conservative 710 (45.6%,+16.1%), UKIP 130 (8.3%, -27.4%). Labour gain from UKIP.
Basingstoke & Deane BC, Kempshott: Conservative 884 (60.4%, -4.0%), Labour 475 (32.5%, +13.4%), Liberal Democrats 105 (7.1%). All changes are since 2016. [UKIP did not stand]
Charnwood BC, Quorn & Mountsorrel Castle: Conservative 719 (51.5%, -7.7%), Labour 305 (21.8%, -3.1%), Liberal Democrats 233 (16.7%), UKIP 139 (10.0%, -3.8%).
Cherwell DC, Bicester West: Independent (Broad) 877 (40.5%), Conservative 716 (33.0%, +16.0%), Labour 439 (20.2%, +8.3%), Green 72 (3.3%, -1.7%), Liberal Democrats 64 (3.0%). Independent gain from Conservative; all changes are since 2016. [UKIP did not stand]
Fenland DC, Birch: Conservative 326 (62.1%, +5.9%), Liberal Democrats 113 (21.5%, +5.9%), Independent 86 (16.4%).
South Northamptonshire DC, Astwell: Conservative 319 (76.9%, -0.9%), Labour 96 (23.1%, +0.9%).
South Northamptonshire DC, Whittlewood: Liberal Democrats 366 (56.6%), Conservative 236 (36.5%), Labour 44 (6.8%). Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative who was elected unopposed in 2015.
Watford BC, Oxhey: Liberal Democrats 828 (55.3%, -3.5%), Conservative 420 (28.1%, +4.7%), Labour 248 (16.6%, -1.2%). All changes are since this May.
West Somerset DC, Alcombe: Liberal Democrats 256 (39.2%), Conservative 177 (27.1%, +0.9%), Independent (Stephens) 130 (19.9%), Labour 90 (13.8%, -5.4%). Liberal Democrat gain from UKIP, who did not stand in this by-election.
The Liberal Democrats are on a high note once again, although this is currently the usual for British local by-elections. Their win in Alcombe, West Somerset deserves particular attention amongst this set of by-elections. Last month, a parliamentary Order in Council approving the merger of West Somerset and Taunton Deane councils was approved, meaning this could be the very last by-election that takes place in West Somerset; elections to the new council take place in May 2019. Even though the merger is felt by many as necessary due to the small size of West Somerset council (it is in fact the smallest non-unitary district in England, excluding the sui generis cases of the City of London and the Isles of Scilly) and the lack of central government funding, it is resulting in an anti-Conservative backlash by voters protective of their local identity, and feel the merger is a takeover by Taunton Deane, which has nearly three times the population of West Somerset. Echoes of the creation of Hereford & Worcester and its resistance by Herefordshire, which managed to become separate once more in 1997, abound. The fact a recognised Independent stood did not help the Conservatives' cause either, and the absence of a Green candidate, as usual, helped the Liberal Democrats win the ward. At the same time, they managed to win one of the safest Conservative wards in South Northamptonshire, one of the most safely Conservative districts in England. Whittlewood ward went uncontested in 2011 despite having been represented by a Labour councillor from 1999-2007, although South Northamptonshire has a reputation for electing large numbers of councillors unopposed. Within South Northamptonshire, the 2015 election resulted in 14 unopposed councillors alone and the number of unopposed councillors in each election is usually at least 10. This win happened due to the previous incumbent being disqualified for non-attendance and failing to do anything for the community. In rural areas, especially those cut off from surrounding areas due to a lack of public transport and long road distances (South Northamptonshire is one of only a handful of districts without a single train station), candidates are judged more by their standing in the community and what they have done (or what they have failed to do) than their party label. The Liberal Democrats also managed to last week win all three seats of the knife-edge marginal new ward of London Bridge & West Bermondsey (whose election was deferred by the death of longstanding former Conservative councillor Toby Eckersley), with the last-placed Liberal Democrat beating the first-placed Labour by only 31 votes. The Oxhey by-election was the only minor setback for them this week, where the Conservatives managed a 4.1% swing in their favour.
The Green Party did well given that it only stood in 1 of the 10 local by-elections (plus the deferred election in Willesden Green) managing to gain second place in Willesden Green in spite of the Make Willesden Green vote not transferring to them but rather to Labour and to a lesser extent the Conservatives. They also managed to hold onto third place in Town ward, Doncaster, despite a Liberal Democrat intervention and they had to contend with the Yorkshire Party's Chris Whitwood, who has recently built up a notable personal vote in Doncaster, absorbing much of the anti-Labour vote.
Labour did well when the Liberal Democrats were not in contention, as aptly proven in both Basildon by-elections, neither of which had a Liberal Democrat candidate. The Conservatives gained control of Basildon council last month but this did not help them hold Pitsea South East against Labour, nor did it enable them to make progress in the normally reliably Labour ward of Lee Chapel North. Labour being divided over the EU Withdrawal Bill proved to be no obstacle to Labour's success in these by-elections either.
In Bicester West, the Independent was endorsed by sitting Independent councillor Les Sibley (formerly a Labour councillor for that ward), and the said Les Sibley managed more votes than all three Conservative candidates in Bicester West ward put together back in 2016, even accounting for the fact two of those Conservatives won the other two seats in said Bicester West ward. The Conservatives are normally only challengeable by known independents in Bicester, making that Independent's win significant.
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