My analysis of British local by-elections of 28/6/18 and why having children is not bad for the environment

The results of this week's British local by-elections were as follows:

Leicestershire CC, Syston Ridgeway: Conservative 810 (59.7%, +2.1%), Labour 251 (18.5%, -2.3%), Liberal Democrats 149 (11.0%,+5.0%), Green 97 (7.2%, -1.3%), UKIP 49 (3.6%, -3.5%).

North Devon DC, Fremington: Independent (Mackie) 577 (50.8%), Conservative 356 (31.3%, +16.6%), Liberal Democrats 119 (10.5%), Labour 65 (5.7%), Green 19 (1.7, -6.1%). Independent gain from former Independent.

North Kesteven DC, North Hykeham Mill: Conservative 376 (49.7%, -9.7%), Lincolnshire Independents 171 (22.6%, -18.1%), Labour 167 (22.1%), Liberal Democrats 43 (5.7%).

North Kesteven DC, Skellingthorpe: Lincolnshire Independents 348 (45.7%) , Conservative 201 (26.4%, +5.3%), Labour 129 (17.0%), Liberal Democrats 83 (10.9%, +5.8%). Lincolnshire Independents gain from Independent.

It was independent candidates and Conservatives who performed well this week, although all four local by-elections this week were in very favourable territory for both where no other political parties were competitive. A low turnout in North Hykeham Mill, where all four candidates lived in the ward becoming increasingly more suburban in nature, can be partly attributed to the Lincolnshire Independents' poor performance. North Hyekham lies within the only Lincolnshire constituency where the Lincolnshire Independents have ever saved their deposit at a parliamentary level-Sleaford & North Hyekham. They had a much better time in the village of Skellingthorpe, notable for its Wikipedia history of unusual stories, partly because their candidate lived there and the Conservatives' candidate did not; also Independent voters in Lincolnshire have shown themselves to be more inclined towards the Lincolnshire Independents than the Conservatives. Despite not having stood in 2015, and despite rural Lincolnshire never having been favourable to Labour in the way Norfolk was half a century ago, Labour managed respectable votes in both local by-elections in North Kesteven. As expected, Syston Ridgeway (whose by-election had no independent or local residents' candidate) a small town whose population mainly commutes to the nearby city of Leicester, returned a Conservative once again and all intra-party swings were below 5%.

This week, you have probably noticed a series of articles claiming that having children is fundamentally bad for the environment, including from women in California who volunteered for sterilisation to supposedly lower their carbon footprint.

However, this line fails to take these factors into account: that how you raise your child(ren) is important, and that a lot of parents do not want to raise their child(ren) in a "standard" and not eco-friendly lifestyle (as described in those articles). A child raised in a green lifestyle will be healthier and happier as well, and will show more love to its parents. Also, few parents in wealthier nations have more than two children, especially well-educated parents, so the birth rate is likely to stay below replacement rate for decades to come, as people are having children later and the effects of environmental damage and diet are reducing human fertility overall; the amount of children a couple has is a major factor in terms of environmental impact. Also, the next generation of children, and the current generation as well, will likely be the ones who will save humanity and the world and undo the mistakes of past generations.









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