My analysis of yesterday's local by-election and why a coup to oust Theresa May will not cause another snap election
Readers, the result of the Isle of Wight council by-election, the only British local by-election that took place yesterday, was as follows:
Isle of Wight UA, Central Wight: Conservative 547 (49.7%, -25.5%), Liberal Democrats 286 (26.0%), Green 143 (13.0%, -5.9%), Labour 101 (9.2%, +3.2%), UKIP 24 (2.2%)*.
*The UKIP candidate, Terry Brennan, unofficially withdrew before polling day (it is not possible to officially withdraw from any British election after nominations have closed), although after postal votes had been sent out.
Despite the Green Party's efforts in this by-election, located in their best prospect to elect a second MP, they finished third behind the Liberal Democrats who had not stood in the ward last year. As an indirect consequence the Conservative vote fell below 50% for the first time in this rural and peacefully isolated ward. UKIP's unofficial withdrawal made no difference in the end; such is their credibility or in fact lack thereof. This was compounded by all 17 UKIP councillors in Thurrock leaving UKIP and forming the Thurrock Independents, setting a record for the largest mass defection in modern British local government history (i.e. since 1973). 5 UKIP councillors out of 6 in Hartlepool-once as strong a prospect for UKIP as Thurrock-have also left UKIP, and the sole remaining UKIP councillor is up for election this year. Although neither of these events have received anywhere near as much attention as the vote of no confidence in Henry Bolton, these are more significant indicators of UKIP's impending demise.
On a similar note, some Conservative MPs are planning to oust Theresa May from her office as Prime Minister (http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/tory-mps-considering-coup-against-may-as-frustration-builds/ar-AAvaPEa?li=AAmiR2Z&ocid=ientp) although 48 MPs (15% of the parliamentary contingent) are needed to call an actual leadership election (this key requirement was introduced after the failure of Sir Anthony Meyer's challenge to Margaret Thatcher in 1989, which had no real prospect of success at any time). Some predict it will cause a snap 2018 election, but previous challenges have shown that replacing an unpopular Prime Minister will actually reduce the chance of an early general election by introducing a fresh new face to the public, not increase it. Many early general elections arise as the result of mistakes by past Prime Ministers or an inability by major parties to form a government, not an unpopular Prime Minister or Cabinet. On the last occasion an acceding Prime Minister called an early general election, specifically in 1955 by Anthony Eden, the general election was not particularly early as it was called 3 years and 7 months after the previous election of October 1951. Nor did an early general election take place on either John Major taking office in 1990 or Gordon Brown taking office in 2007. Finally, if such a leadership challenge took place, only pro-Brexit MPs would stand a realistic chance of replacing Theresa May, and therefore would carry on the Conservatives' Brexit plan as normal barring a vote of no confidence in the government itself.
Isle of Wight UA, Central Wight: Conservative 547 (49.7%, -25.5%), Liberal Democrats 286 (26.0%), Green 143 (13.0%, -5.9%), Labour 101 (9.2%, +3.2%), UKIP 24 (2.2%)*.
*The UKIP candidate, Terry Brennan, unofficially withdrew before polling day (it is not possible to officially withdraw from any British election after nominations have closed), although after postal votes had been sent out.
Despite the Green Party's efforts in this by-election, located in their best prospect to elect a second MP, they finished third behind the Liberal Democrats who had not stood in the ward last year. As an indirect consequence the Conservative vote fell below 50% for the first time in this rural and peacefully isolated ward. UKIP's unofficial withdrawal made no difference in the end; such is their credibility or in fact lack thereof. This was compounded by all 17 UKIP councillors in Thurrock leaving UKIP and forming the Thurrock Independents, setting a record for the largest mass defection in modern British local government history (i.e. since 1973). 5 UKIP councillors out of 6 in Hartlepool-once as strong a prospect for UKIP as Thurrock-have also left UKIP, and the sole remaining UKIP councillor is up for election this year. Although neither of these events have received anywhere near as much attention as the vote of no confidence in Henry Bolton, these are more significant indicators of UKIP's impending demise.
On a similar note, some Conservative MPs are planning to oust Theresa May from her office as Prime Minister (http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/tory-mps-considering-coup-against-may-as-frustration-builds/ar-AAvaPEa?li=AAmiR2Z&ocid=ientp) although 48 MPs (15% of the parliamentary contingent) are needed to call an actual leadership election (this key requirement was introduced after the failure of Sir Anthony Meyer's challenge to Margaret Thatcher in 1989, which had no real prospect of success at any time). Some predict it will cause a snap 2018 election, but previous challenges have shown that replacing an unpopular Prime Minister will actually reduce the chance of an early general election by introducing a fresh new face to the public, not increase it. Many early general elections arise as the result of mistakes by past Prime Ministers or an inability by major parties to form a government, not an unpopular Prime Minister or Cabinet. On the last occasion an acceding Prime Minister called an early general election, specifically in 1955 by Anthony Eden, the general election was not particularly early as it was called 3 years and 7 months after the previous election of October 1951. Nor did an early general election take place on either John Major taking office in 1990 or Gordon Brown taking office in 2007. Finally, if such a leadership challenge took place, only pro-Brexit MPs would stand a realistic chance of replacing Theresa May, and therefore would carry on the Conservatives' Brexit plan as normal barring a vote of no confidence in the government itself.
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