My analysis of two constituency by-elections in France and Austria's first Landtag election of 2018
Yesterday, the first two by-elections to be held in France since Emmanuel Macron convincingly won the French Presidential election took place due to the results in Territoire de Belfort's 1st constituency (in practice, "Belfort East") and Val d'Oise's 1st constituency (in practice, "Val d'Oise North West") were annulled. In the former case, this happened due to Ian Boucard's campaigners distributing misleading leaflets in the constituency, and in the latter it is because Isabelle Muller-Quoy's alternate, Michel Alexeef, was ineligible to run for election as he was president of an employment tribunal at the time of the election (such positions are politically restricted in many countries, including the UK).
In "Belfort East", Ian Boucard for Les Republicans (France's main conservative party) achieved a considerable swing of 10.24% against En Marche (Emmanuel Macron's personal vehicle in practice, with a special focus on liberal economics), although this was on a dreadful turnout of 29.5%. Low turnouts are becoming par for the course in French legislative elections, but even by French standards that turnout figure is very poor indeed. The marginality of this constituency (M. Boucard only won by 279 votes in the second round over En Marche's Christophe Grudler last year) exacerbates the real level of political disillusionment in France. The once-dominant Parti Socialiste had one of their worst performances ever, polling only 351 votes and 2.6%, relegating them to 7th place in the first round of that by-election. The Front National's vote was also slashed; they polled only 1,015 votes and their vote share dropped by nearly 10 percentage points but amazingly they only dropped to 4th place. Many older conservative French voters who are often tempted to vote FN are sympathetic to LR when they get their act together, as M. Boucard clearly did. Debut Le France's entry also proved to have a significant impact despite their poor result; they finished behind Europe Ecologie Le Verts (EELV, the main French green party) who were decimated politically last year. Other splinter groups made no real difference.
Meanwhile, over in "Val d'Oise North West", LR also achieved a swing against REM, but it was only 6.28%. However, if this swing is repeated in the second round, Mme. Muller-Quoy will lose her seat in the French National Assembly. EELV's performance looks good on paper as it represents an increase of 2.33% from 2017, but a closer look reveals that green politics actually suffered a decrease in support in this by-election as the total vote share of the three separate ecological candidates in 2017 (EELV, LT, AEI) was 6.87% and EELV, the only green party in this French by-election, polled only 6.2%. Green politics has a long road to recovery in France, sadly-if EELV had run their own candidate in the French Presidential election and not supported Benoit Hamon the legislative election would have turned out much better for them. Once again, the entry of DLF hit FN hard, although not as much as in the by-election of Territoire de Belfort's constituency. A group with similarly extreme views to FN, Parti de France, also rose at FN's expense even if only by a small amount. Turnout proved to be even worse in Val d'Oise's 1st constituency's by-election, dropping to 20.33%, the worst in French by-election history. By comparison, only two parliamentary by-elections in UK history have seen worse turnouts in peacetime: Leeds Central in 1999 with 19.9%, and Manchester Central in 2012 with 18.2%.
On the same day, the Landtag election in Lower Austria (Niederosterreich), which surrounds the city of Vienna and includes the main commuter belt in Austria proved to be rather less interesting, as the Austrian People's Party (OVP) retained majority control of the Landtag once again. However, it was the first time in more than 20 years they had polled less than 50% of the vote in that state,dropping to 49.64%, and their overall majority was reduced to 2. The Socialist Party of Austria (SPO) did not lose any seats despite their vote share decreasing by more than double the decrease taken by the OVP (2.35% as opposed to 1.15%). The Freedom Party obtained 4 extra seats although this was not enough to deprive the OVP of single-party control, but they did regain third place from Team Stronach (which no longer exist, having dissolved before the last Austrian legislative election). The Green Party lost one of its four seats although it has been clearly able to advance and regroup after the total disaster of 2017 where it lost all 24 seats in the Austrian National Council It must be noted however that the PILZ list, primarily responsible for the Greens' crushing defeat in Austria last year, did not field candidates in Lower Austria's Landtag election so the Greens were spared another humiliation. In fact, Peter Pilz himself left the Austrian Parliament shortly after that legislative election after being accused of sexual harassment. NEOS, Austria's main liberal party, obtained 5.15% of the vote and 3 seats allowing it entry into that Landtag for the first time, winning over many former Team Stronach voters especially of a free-market bent.
Salzburg, Styria and Tyrol will also have Landtag elections in Austria this year-keep watching the polls if European politics interests you.
In "Belfort East", Ian Boucard for Les Republicans (France's main conservative party) achieved a considerable swing of 10.24% against En Marche (Emmanuel Macron's personal vehicle in practice, with a special focus on liberal economics), although this was on a dreadful turnout of 29.5%. Low turnouts are becoming par for the course in French legislative elections, but even by French standards that turnout figure is very poor indeed. The marginality of this constituency (M. Boucard only won by 279 votes in the second round over En Marche's Christophe Grudler last year) exacerbates the real level of political disillusionment in France. The once-dominant Parti Socialiste had one of their worst performances ever, polling only 351 votes and 2.6%, relegating them to 7th place in the first round of that by-election. The Front National's vote was also slashed; they polled only 1,015 votes and their vote share dropped by nearly 10 percentage points but amazingly they only dropped to 4th place. Many older conservative French voters who are often tempted to vote FN are sympathetic to LR when they get their act together, as M. Boucard clearly did. Debut Le France's entry also proved to have a significant impact despite their poor result; they finished behind Europe Ecologie Le Verts (EELV, the main French green party) who were decimated politically last year. Other splinter groups made no real difference.
Meanwhile, over in "Val d'Oise North West", LR also achieved a swing against REM, but it was only 6.28%. However, if this swing is repeated in the second round, Mme. Muller-Quoy will lose her seat in the French National Assembly. EELV's performance looks good on paper as it represents an increase of 2.33% from 2017, but a closer look reveals that green politics actually suffered a decrease in support in this by-election as the total vote share of the three separate ecological candidates in 2017 (EELV, LT, AEI) was 6.87% and EELV, the only green party in this French by-election, polled only 6.2%. Green politics has a long road to recovery in France, sadly-if EELV had run their own candidate in the French Presidential election and not supported Benoit Hamon the legislative election would have turned out much better for them. Once again, the entry of DLF hit FN hard, although not as much as in the by-election of Territoire de Belfort's constituency. A group with similarly extreme views to FN, Parti de France, also rose at FN's expense even if only by a small amount. Turnout proved to be even worse in Val d'Oise's 1st constituency's by-election, dropping to 20.33%, the worst in French by-election history. By comparison, only two parliamentary by-elections in UK history have seen worse turnouts in peacetime: Leeds Central in 1999 with 19.9%, and Manchester Central in 2012 with 18.2%.
On the same day, the Landtag election in Lower Austria (Niederosterreich), which surrounds the city of Vienna and includes the main commuter belt in Austria proved to be rather less interesting, as the Austrian People's Party (OVP) retained majority control of the Landtag once again. However, it was the first time in more than 20 years they had polled less than 50% of the vote in that state,dropping to 49.64%, and their overall majority was reduced to 2. The Socialist Party of Austria (SPO) did not lose any seats despite their vote share decreasing by more than double the decrease taken by the OVP (2.35% as opposed to 1.15%). The Freedom Party obtained 4 extra seats although this was not enough to deprive the OVP of single-party control, but they did regain third place from Team Stronach (which no longer exist, having dissolved before the last Austrian legislative election). The Green Party lost one of its four seats although it has been clearly able to advance and regroup after the total disaster of 2017 where it lost all 24 seats in the Austrian National Council It must be noted however that the PILZ list, primarily responsible for the Greens' crushing defeat in Austria last year, did not field candidates in Lower Austria's Landtag election so the Greens were spared another humiliation. In fact, Peter Pilz himself left the Austrian Parliament shortly after that legislative election after being accused of sexual harassment. NEOS, Austria's main liberal party, obtained 5.15% of the vote and 3 seats allowing it entry into that Landtag for the first time, winning over many former Team Stronach voters especially of a free-market bent.
Salzburg, Styria and Tyrol will also have Landtag elections in Austria this year-keep watching the polls if European politics interests you.
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